• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

PH, I dont know how to be much clearer - any political agenda that relies upon subsidizing private initiatives of profit seeking companies is a non starter to me. You know how we were talking about conservatives accusing Democrats of "throwing money at problems". This is throwing money at a problem. I dont believe in trickle down economics and I dont believe in trickle down climate policy.
 
It's a simple concept - "innovation" is the language of "market solutions" reform, when a real green transformation of our society and economy is going to require anti-capitalist movement. I admittedly don't know shit about Jay Inslee's agenda, but I can at least admit what I'm looking for in a policy agenda inorder to put faith in it.

Innovation is not necessarily market solutions...NASA in it's hey day was a wildly innovative government agency. Biden can invest in, let's say, the Department of Energy to create a branch that will race to find a pollution free (or low pollution) solution to our energy needs.
 
Perhaps it is mostly ignorance on my part - but as unsure as I am on what "trickle down climate policy" would be, I am even more unsure what the opposite would be.
 
Innovation is not necessarily market solutions...NASA in it's hey day was a wildly innovative government agency. Biden can invest in, let's say, the Department of Energy to create a branch that will race to find a pollution free (or low pollution) solution to our energy needs.

I would be much more enthusiastic about Bidens agenda if it were clearly based around government programs. The EPA is mentioned 1 time in the whole freaking plan! The Department of Energy isn't mentioned at all! Instead its a huge list of shit were going to invest in.
 
Has he considered cap and trade

So Joe Biden is going to give out $20,000 pollution forgiveness loans to Pell Grant recipients who start small businesses in disadvantaged communities, and keep their business running for 3 years
 
It's a simple concept - "innovation" is the language of "market solutions" reform, when a real green transformation of our society and economy is going to require anti-capitalist movement. I admittedly don't know shit about Jay Inslee's agenda, but I can at least admit what I'm looking for in a policy agenda inorder to put faith in it.

I strongly disagree with this, in fact I think an anti capitalist movement would be devastating for the climate. The usual disclaimers about not being an expert. But I think the primary problem with that way of thinking is that it paints climate change as an American problem. But climate change isn't a local problem. There is no question we have had an outsized impact historically, but our share of worldwide emissions is dropping significantly year over year. Even if we were to got he anti-capitalist route and regulate away our carbon emissions to zero (putting aside for a second the significant impact this would have on the living standard of our citizens), this is unlikely to meaningfully change the overall climate trajectory of the planet. We need to think bigger! We are the richest fucking country in the world, and I say we have a responsibility to do more than just clean things up inside our borders, I say we have an obligation to put *the world* on a path to a carbon free future. So how can we do that?

First, I submit that any country, but especially a developing country, is looking to improve the living standards of its people. In order to do so, it needs stuff. And that stuff -infrastructure, food, shelter, transport- it all requires energy. And the cheapest way to get that energy has historically been burning carbon. Even overtly socialist economies (Bolivia, for example), when presented with the trade off between improving the living standards of their people and harming the environment, they choose helping their people every time. And so the world burns. But it need not be so! It's already changing. Germany has in some ways shown us the path. They subsidized clean energy when it was expensive and shitty. With those subsidies, it became competitive with coal and natural gas, and so private investment came in as well, ramping up production. And as production ramped up, we got way better at it. Wrights law in action. And now it's *cheaper* in much of the world to use wind or solar than to burn coal or gas. That's how we change the game, not by convincing the developing world that they should make sacrifices now to save their peoples' future, but by making it cost effective for them to do so.

We need massive investment in R&D. I'm not saying throw money at the private sector, government R&D has been hugely successful historically (birdman alluded to NASA above, right?) and I think a big part of the answer going forward. We need the government to help develop the tech, but there is also nothing wrong with then utilizing markets to do exactly what they are good at doing with that tech. Imagine a world where instead of dirty steel and cement with have clean alternative for infrastructure. Imagine carbon neutral agriculture with significantly decreased demands on land use. These are the ball game...how we change the world.

To be clear, I'm not against regulation. And I think the parts of the Evergreen plan requiring, for example, carbon neutral energy by 2030, would go a long way. And they do talk about beefing up the EPA specifically through things like Clear Air Act rules to crack down on pollution. We absolutely should take steps to crack down on domestic polluters. I just think it's fairly small time, unlikely to make a big dent in emissions, and should be no where near the centerpiece of any serious climate policy.
 
I strongly disagree with this, in fact I think an anti capitalist movement would be devastating for the climate. The usual disclaimers about not being an expert. But I think the primary problem with that way of thinking is that it paints climate change as an American problem. But climate change isn't a local problem. There is no question we have had an outsized impact historically, but our share of worldwide emissions is dropping significantly year over year. Even if we were to got he anti-capitalist route and regulate away our carbon emissions to zero (putting aside for a second the significant impact this would have on the living standard of our citizens), this is unlikely to meaningfully change the overall climate trajectory of the planet. We need to think bigger! We are the richest fucking country in the world, and I say we have a responsibility to do more than just clean things up inside our borders, I say we have an obligation to put *the world* on a path to a carbon free future. So how can we do that?

First, I submit that any country, but especially a developing country, is looking to improve the living standards of its people. In order to do so, it needs stuff. And that stuff -infrastructure, food, shelter, transport- it all requires energy. And the cheapest way to get that energy has historically been burning carbon. Even overtly socialist economies (Bolivia, for example), when presented with the trade off between improving the living standards of their people and harming the environment, they choose helping their people every time. And so the world burns. But it need not be so! It's already changing. Germany has in some ways shown us the path. They subsidized clean energy when it was expensive and shitty. With those subsidies, it became competitive with coal and natural gas, and so private investment came in as well, ramping up production. And as production ramped up, we got way better at it. Wrights law in action. And now it's *cheaper* in much of the world to use wind or solar than to burn coal or gas. That's how we change the game, not by convincing the developing world that they should make sacrifices now to save their peoples' future, but by making it cost effective for them to do so.

We need massive investment in R&D. I'm not saying throw money at the private sector, government R&D has been hugely successful historically (birdman alluded to NASA above, right?) and I think a big part of the answer going forward. We need the government to help develop the tech, but there is also nothing wrong with then utilizing markets to do exactly what they are good at doing with that tech. Imagine a world where instead of dirty steel and cement with have clean alternative for infrastructure. Imagine carbon neutral agriculture with significantly decreased demands on land use. These are the ball game...how we change the world.

To be clear, I'm not against regulation. And I think the parts of the Evergreen plan requiring, for example, carbon neutral energy by 2030, would go a long way. And they do talk about beefing up the EPA specifically through things like Clear Air Act rules to crack down on pollution. We absolutely should take steps to crack down on domestic polluters. I just think it's fairly small time, unlikely to make a big dent in emissions, and should be no where near the centerpiece of any serious climate policy.

Specifically responding to your sentence about subsidizing clean energy, doesn't it track that clean energy would be much more cost competitive right now if the environmental costs of dirty energy weren't already subsidized? I think this is where we differ in our understanding of economic markets. I think the race to the bottom for cheapest energy in a free market takes too long. If the energy utility is nationalized, then we as citizens of a dying world aren't waiting for solar to become as cheap as coal burning inorder to take over the market.
 
Last edited:
Specifically responding to your sentence about subsidizing clean energy, doesn't it track that clean energy would be much more cost competitive right now if the environmental costs of dirty energy weren't already subsidized? I think this is where we differ in our understanding of economic markets. I think the race to the bottom for cheapest energy in a free market takes too long. If the energy utility is nationalized, then we as citizens of a dying world aren't waiting for solar to become as cheap as coal burning inorder to take over the market.

If you mean we need to end subsidies to follow fuel companies for burning dirty carbon, then we agree 100%. Solar is cheaper than coal, today, in much of the world, and we should be immediately ending the giveaways to fossil fuel companies. I know that is part of Inslee's plan.
 
If you mean we need to end subsidies to follow fuel companies for burning dirty carbon, then we agree 100%. Solar is cheaper than coal, today, in much of the world, and we should be immediately ending the giveaways to fossil fuel companies. I know that is part of Inslee's plan.
Continuing on in that same thought, I don't think that boards of investors should have such outsized roles in world wide climate change initiatives - which goes along with my feelings about green energy competing with dirty energy - I don't think the world is benefitting from competition *against* clean energy. World wide energy and fossil fuel conglomerates like Exxon have known about the scientific certainty of man made climate change for 40 years, and they have spent billions of dollars covering it up, slow playing innovation, and manipulating the market just so that clean energy initiatives are most profitable to them and no one else. How do Biden or Inslee tackle that?
 
I say nationalize the main utilities: water, energy, internet, and then subsidize the costs of innovation for the consumer directly by selling them clean energy at fair rates, even at a loss (this is what I mean by opposing "trickle down energy". I want to cut out the competition. Species are going extinct, we don't need to play monopoly while Miami's fresh water aquifers are flooded by rising sea levels.
 
Last edited:
 
The Lincoln Project with another strong ad praising Fauci.

 
Biden up 52-37 in today’s Quinnipiac poll which I believe has an A rating from 538. 53 percent of those polled have a strongly unfavorable feeling about Donald (only 31 percent feel the same about Biden).

In this same poll four years ago Clinton led only 50-48. Donald is in serious serious shit. If the election were today he’d be more likely to lose in a landslide than win.
 
June Numbers:

Vegas odds on election winner over last week have shifted from -105 (Dems) and Even (GOP) to -130 (Dems) and Even (GOP). Donald specifically has changed from -105 to +105. Biden best odds he’s had ever that have seen at -120.

Democrats -130 to take senate, -575 to win the popular vote (implied odds of 85.2%)

Angus can make a killing in Vegas right now on a State by state basis betting on the GOP candidate to win the electoral votes where democrats are currently favored. Put your money where your mouth is Brad:

Arizona +125
Florida Even
Michigan +220
Nevada +330
NH +245
NC Even
Pennsylvania +190
Virginia +440

July Numbers:

Dems are now -180 to win the Election on Bovada (up from -130 last month)
GOP are +135 to win (down from Even last month)
Donald specific odds to win are +135 (down from +105 last month)
Biden specific odds to win are -150 (up from -120)
Democrats -180 to take Senate (up from -130 last month)
Dems -800 to win the popular vote (implied odds of 88.9% and up from -575 last month)

State Specific Odds for Donald:

Arizona +140 (+125 last month)
Florida +125 (Even)
Michigan +245 (+220)
Nevada +400 (+330)
NH +275 (+245)
NC +115 (Even)
Pennsylvania +185 (+190)
Virginia +600 (+440)

So of the 14 odds pointed out last month compared to today, Donald and the GOP have moved to worse odds in 13 of the 14 and have slightly improved their odds in Pennsylvania (from +190 to +185).
 
I strongly disagree with this, in fact I think an anti capitalist movement would be devastating for the climate. The usual disclaimers about not being an expert. But I think the primary problem with that way of thinking is that it paints climate change as an American problem. But climate change isn't a local problem. There is no question we have had an outsized impact historically, but our share of worldwide emissions is dropping significantly year over year. Even if we were to got he anti-capitalist route and regulate away our carbon emissions to zero (putting aside for a second the significant impact this would have on the living standard of our citizens), this is unlikely to meaningfully change the overall climate trajectory of the planet. We need to think bigger! We are the richest fucking country in the world, and I say we have a responsibility to do more than just clean things up inside our borders, I say we have an obligation to put *the world* on a path to a carbon free future. So how can we do that?

First, I submit that any country, but especially a developing country, is looking to improve the living standards of its people. In order to do so, it needs stuff. And that stuff -infrastructure, food, shelter, transport- it all requires energy. And the cheapest way to get that energy has historically been burning carbon. Even overtly socialist economies (Bolivia, for example), when presented with the trade off between improving the living standards of their people and harming the environment, they choose helping their people every time. And so the world burns. But it need not be so! It's already changing. Germany has in some ways shown us the path. They subsidized clean energy when it was expensive and shitty. With those subsidies, it became competitive with coal and natural gas, and so private investment came in as well, ramping up production. And as production ramped up, we got way better at it. Wrights law in action. And now it's *cheaper* in much of the world to use wind or solar than to burn coal or gas. That's how we change the game, not by convincing the developing world that they should make sacrifices now to save their peoples' future, but by making it cost effective for them to do so.

How do anti-capitalist movements paint climate change as an American problem? I think your post and line of thinking lacks an understanding of the role capitalism has played in making America the wealthiest country and wreaked havoc on countries like Bolivia. I don’t know that it’s a fair question to ask Bolivia to choose between raising living standards and eco friendly policies when we are literally orchestrating coups.
 
Back
Top