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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

PhDeac said:
Republicans already suffered a huge election defeat in 2018 mostly because of Trump. The party has become even more loyal to Trump as a result. Republicans who have distanced themselves from Trump since then have been excommunicated.
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Part of the problem for the GOP is that they didn't get as large an electoral defeat as was expected. They got smoked in the house. But they gained in the senate, in large part because so many Dems in the Senate were up in normally red or purple states.

And we all get that Trump likes to cut anyone off at the knees who goes against his will. If he loses that all changes very quickly. You'll have a party trying to redefine itself. How much time that takes will hinge a lot more on how the Dems play things (where do they give the GOP breathing room to carve out positions that paint the Dems as out of touch with popular opinion) vs. anything Trump does once he's gone.

Want to know what really fucks the GOP. It's Trump getting re-elected.
 
I am a tad worried given that the polls in states like FL, NC and AZ have been tightening over the last few days. Still think Biden takes NC and AZ, but if he were to lose all 3 by early Wed a.m., we could have a problem on our hands. Biden will win MI and WI, but PA will take the longest to count. Then we have the litigation. Biden simply has to win AZ and Omaha or NC, or we're in the courts over PA. And I don't trust SCOTUS. I need Deacman or Aaron Rodgers to tell me to relax and that this thing can't be stolen. I mean I still expect Biden will win the popular vote by 6-8%, but the EC could once again be a problem.
 
DeacMan said:
Assuming he loses how quickly will the GOP pivot away from him. It will be head snapping. Those who have tied their wagon to his car the hardest will be ruined.
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The GOP is Trump. The GOP pivot you've been 'waiting' for is not coming unless you expect them to pivot further into the abyss of fascism. The only real hope for America is the Democrats and people turning out in massive numbers for every election to support them; from local school board elections on up to the White House. The GOP is a hopeless mess of fascist and cowards. Can you name a single prominent republican that isn't whole-heartedly complicit? Perhaps guys like McConnell are just Machiavellian, hell bent on judicial appointments, that thought they could use Trump's populism to achieve some long dreamed goals then toss him and his idiocy by the way side, but that plan is dead. The GOP is a fascist party and any principled conservatives* needs to regroup and start a new party.

*fake news
 
DeacMan said:
Yeah, that really isn't how it works. Politicians are not stupid. So long as he's the President its a fucking silly dance for a lot of these guys. The GOP has a tent that Trump has shrunk. They know this. So they play to Trump now because they have to while putting enough stakes in the ground to distinguish themselves from him later. And how much each politician does this to a large degree contingent on a host of factors related to how they calculate maintaining their own job. As soon as it is hip to distance from Trump they'll all become more vocal. Some of these guys will be battling to become a standard bearer and to do that they all know the tent can't keep getting smaller. So . . .

Marco Rubio - Licks Trump's boots at a campaign rally

Also Marco Rubio - but just one example - Demands Trump be transparent about his Covid diagnosis for the good of the nation. Sounds silly but they all have to have green shoots of how they were critical to build any legitimacy.

Mitch McConnell - Pushes along Coney-Barrett in lock step with the President

Also Mitch McConnell - "I have not even been to the White House since Mid-August"

Very few of them are more stridently outspoken - Romney, that dude from Nebraska, etc. More of them will be shortly if he loses.
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Trump didn’t shrink the party. Republicans did. It’s the choice they made in 2012. Trump is the outcome of that choice.
 
Henry Chinaski said:
man i don't know on this one. and i don't think he'll carry himself in a way that will allow people to rehab him. W just kinda went away, Trump ain't gonna do that.

that said, i agree it's pretty surprising that everyone has conveniently "re-remembered" the W era. Trump was the greatest thing that ever happened to his reputation and honestly Barry took it pretty easy on him.
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Bush moved to non-descript ex-president and has been cordial and non-partisan. Do you think Trump will act like that and even if he did would he be able to sell it?
 
my hope is that the post-Trump GOP is even more disarray as they try to reconcile the Trumpers with the Lincoln Project types and fail badly
 
birdman said:
The GOP is Trump. The GOP pivot you've been 'waiting' for is not coming unless you expect them to pivot further into the abyss of fascism. The only real hope for America is the Democrats and people turning out in massive numbers for every election to support them; from local school board elections on up to the White House. The GOP is a hopeless mess of fascist and cowards. Can you name a single prominent republican that isn't whole-heartedly complicit? Perhaps guys like McConnell are just Machiavellian, hell bent on judicial appointments, that thought they could use Trump's populism to achieve some long dreamed goals then toss him and his idiocy by the way side, but that plan is dead. The GOP is a fascist party and any principled conservatives* needs to regroup and start a new party.

*fake news
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This -- just saw Lil Marco's ridiculous speech at a Trump rally and its clear he, and likely others, will try to emulate Trump's behavior going forward, not shift away from it. It's who they have always been underneath, and now they are just proudly coming out.
 
DeacMan said:
Part of the problem for the GOP is that they didn't get as large an electoral defeat as was expected. They got smoked in the house. But they gained in the senate, in large part because so many Dems in the Senate were up in normally red or purple states.

And we all get that Trump likes to cut anyone off at the knees who goes against his will. If he loses that all changes very quickly. You'll have a party trying to redefine itself. How much time that takes will hinge a lot more on how the Dems play things (where do they give the GOP breathing room to carve out positions that paint the Dems as out of touch with popular opinion) vs. anything Trump does once he's gone.

Want to know what really fucks the GOP. It's Trump getting re-elected.
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They lost the popular vote in senate races by 7 million in 2018, but gained seats because of geography. In response they fucking trippled down on the fascism shit and instead of distancing them selves from Trump, they lock stepped with him over impeachment, mocked public health guide lines from the CDC, defunded the post-office, and now the RNC is funding lawsuits across the country to throw out ballots. Your party is disaster, abandon it and start over.
 
I'm with Birdman, Ph and Shoo. The Base loves and worships Trump. DC pols may distance themselves from Trump if and when he loses and try to steer the party in a different direction. But the base doesn't read Will, Brooks and Frum or listen to the Lincoln Project. They watch Fox. Hannity, Carlson, Ingraham and Dobbs aren't pushing the same type of conservatism George Will is. They're pushing white nationalist populism and isolationism. DC pols aren't going to convince Fox to change their messaging, and they're not going to convince the Base to vote for a Sasse or Hogan in the 2024 primary, even if 1 of them enters as the favorite, like Jeb did in 2016. Deacman, read American Carnage by Tim Alberta from Politico.
 
Shooshmoo said:
This -- just saw Lil Marco's ridiculous speech at a Trump rally and its clear he, and likely others, will try to emulate Trump's behavior going forward, not shift away from it. It's who they have always been underneath, and now they are just proudly coming out.
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birdman said:
They lost the popular vote in senate races by 7 million in 2018, but gained seats because of geography. In response they fucking trippled down on the fascism shit and instead of distancing them selves from Trump, they lock stepped with him over impeachment, mocked public health guide lines from the CDC, defunded the post-office, and now the RNC is funding lawsuits across the country to throw out ballots. Your party is disaster, abandon it and start over.
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Yep. Trump will be a kingmaker in 2024 if he doesn’t run himself. He gave Romney a huge boost in 2012.

TenaciousKory said:
I thought the Lincoln Project are *pbbt* future dem voters
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They’ll vote Dem after failing to reform the GOP.
 
TenaciousKory said:
I thought the Lincoln Project are *pbbt* future dem voters
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I honestly think this is a possible future. GOP continues moving right (Maybe Richard Spencer will rise to lead the party in the post Trump era?) and LP conservatives attempt a semi-hostile takeover of the DNC then move them to a center right party.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
I am assuming the media just wants to drive clicks and traffic as there have been way too many, the polls could be wrong again (by a 3x factor than last time and ignore any adjustment made), and the race may be tightening if you flip this poll on its side and align it just right with the sun. Like PA is between 5-7 points for Biden, the same as South Carolina's 5-7 points for Trump, and nobody in their right mind thinks Biden will even come close to winning SC. Along with hedging by forecasters, like if you are so scared that your job is dependent on the results of something you are trying to model and you don't believe in your model then you shouldn't be in modeling.
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Yeah, I've noticed the polling margins for Biden have tightened slightly both nationally and in some battleground states as we've gotten closer to the election, but it's hard to tell if the race is actually getting closer or if the pollsters are just hedging their bets somewhat. The GOP and news media are making a big deal out of the poll in Iowa over the weekend that supposedly shows Trump suddenly jumping out to a healthy lead in that state, and what it may portend for the rest of the Midwest. Given how few undecided voters there are in this election cycle, it makes one wonder just how accurate that poll is if it suddenly shows such a large swing in the last week. Were there really that many people in Iowa who decided in the last week, or were the "undecideds" really Trump voters all along, or maybe just their polling methodology is off? After 2016 I'm dubious about polls anyway, and with the pandemic it's even more difficult to make predictions. I do think the media has a vested interest in keeping the suspense going for as long as possible (post-election lawsuits! vote fraud accusations! recounts! ratings!)
 
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birdman said:
I honestly think this is a possible future. GOP continues moving right (Maybe Richard Spencer will rise to lead the party in the post Trump era?) and LP conservatives attempt a semi-hostile takeover of the DNC then move them to a center right party.
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Only if you think we're heading to a three party system. Maybe. But that seems like the outcome if you are correct. So you'd have to buy into that outcome.
 
I think people are overestimating the size of the "base" and underestimating the number of Trump voters that are voting Trump, but would prefer to vote a Romney or W type

the latter has a lot more money

we'll see how it goes down, but I think predictions that the Fox News right will be the heart-and-soul of a GOP that is nationally competitive in ten years is off
 
cville deac said:
I am a tad worried given that the polls in states like FL, NC and AZ have been tightening over the last few days. Still think Biden takes NC and AZ, but if he were to lose all 3 by early Wed a.m., we could have a problem on our hands. Biden will win MI and WI, but PA will take the longest to count. Then we have the litigation. Biden simply has to win AZ and Omaha or NC, or we're in the courts over PA. And I don't trust SCOTUS. I need Deacman or Aaron Rodgers to tell me to relax and that this thing can't be stolen. I mean I still expect Biden will win the popular vote by 6-8%, but the EC could once again be a problem.
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PA looks more, not less promising. FL similar. Over 100,000 vote lead for Dems heading into today after they posted sizable vote advantage yesterday.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
 
Yeah I think good pollster just put out what the poll says, when there are 20+ polls there is going to be one that is just way outside the normal distribution. For the one in Iowa showing a big Trump lead there was another good pollster showing Biden with a crazy Wisconsin lead. It why doing the polling averages like 538 and other modelers is probably the right method. Additionally at the end of the election cycle pollster start to herd so they aren't out on a limb and a bunch of weird pollsters dump polls out a few days before so that the next cycle they can say our polling showing this was correct, we were the most accurate in this state in this election. If they are wildly wrong nobody bothers to follow up, its like shitty sports hot takes where they are for some reason never revisited.
 
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