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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

DeacInVermont said:
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To be fair they can heft it a bit. Like I've seen them get up on a garage roof. But soaring up into a windmill blade? Tall order.
 
mako1331 said:
At least they’ll take care of that annoying migratory bird issue.

Hey, birdman, all the turkey buzzards in my town hang out around our water tower. Like, hundreds of em. Why is that?
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Turkey vultures (not buzzards) like to roost on high structures like water towers and cell towers and big trees, because it is easy to take off from there. Vultures are great flyers when it comes to soaring but they are very clumsy and awkward at landing and taking off so they like to get a high unencumbered position to start from.
 
birdman said:
Turkey vultures (not buzzards) like to roost on high structures like water towers and cell towers and big trees, because it is easy to take off from there. Vultures are great flyers when it comes to soaring but they are very clumsy and awkward at landing and taking off so they like to get a high unencumbered position to start from.
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I realized I’d used a misnomer after I posted it and I knew you’d obviously catch it. And, man, you know you some birds.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
It’s a simple request Ph. Just stop unnecessarily invoking class and poverty to refer to racist whites. There’s no point in making that distinction.
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Dude. This guy posts every 20 minutes. He will tell you how you feel, how you are interpreting things, how you think. And he believes it all. Fuck him, he is a pedantic ass.
 
DeacMan said:
Maybe. But the turkeys don't fly.
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Turkeys are very good flyers but not distance flyers.

A suddenly boom of Turkey abundance is probably the result of a collapse of the local fox population due to a mange outbreak or maybe rabies. Foxes will rebound in a couple years and the turkeys will decline. Turkeys, fox and disease cycle like that.
 
Another one with the high end words.

Pedantic - excessively concerned with minor details or rules. A negative term referring to one who too concerned with literal accuracy or formality. Implies showing off book learning or trivia in a tiresome way.

Got it. Just trying to keep up here.
 
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This is why I feel pretty damn good generally.

Let's look at known math from Florida and make assumptions that favor Trump somewhat on expected split vote split per national polling and dramatically on election day turnout.

- 5.02 M registered GOP voters
- 5.20 M registered Dem voters
- 3.7 M registered as independents

The belief is that Biden is winning 11% of the GOP vote nationwide. Let's call that 7% in Florida.
2% more registered Dems voted early than registered GOPs
Biden by all accounts is winning independents. Again, let's say in FL by 3% (likely more but let's use 3%).

3.51M Dems have voted. 97-3 for Biden = 3.4047M to 105,300
3.4M GOPs have voted. 93-7 for Trump = 238,000 to 3.162M
1.93M Indies have voted. 51.5-48.5M for Biden = 993,950 to 936,050
8.975M total have voted

Present totals - 4.63665M for Biden to 4.20335M for Trump

Potential votes left -

Dems = 1.69M
GOP = 1.62M
Indies = 1.77M

Presume 70% of the GOPs show up on election day = 1.134M more votes = 79,380 to 1.05462M
Presume 30% of the Dems show up on election day = 507,000 more votes = 491,790 to 15,210
Presume 30% of the Indies show up on election day = 531,000 more votes = 273,465 to 257,535

Totals on election day = 844,635 to 1.082M

Final Total = 5.52M for Biden and 5.29M for Trump

That's Biden 51% and Trump 49%. Trump loses even with much more extensive GOP turnout vs. Dems on election day by 230K votes.
 
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birdman said:
Turkeys are very good flyers but not distance flyers.

A suddenly boom of Turkey abundance is probably the result of a collapse of the local fox population due to a mange outbreak or maybe rabies. Foxes will rebound in a couple years and the turkeys will decline. Turkeys, fox and disease cycle like that.
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Interesting. So how far can they fly. I've only seen them go maybe 30 yards in the air. And we do have foxes in the city. In fact, I've seen more of those than normal as well over the last year or so (but perhaps I'm just anecdotal as it isn't like they are super common to spot).
 
pedantic is a pretty common word at the college level, imo.
 
Now let's look at North Carolina -

7.37M registered voters
- Split is 2.618988M Dem, 2.222327M GOP and 2.449603M Indie
3.62M early in person votes
.9565 mailed votes

Total voted = 4.5765M voted already

Of ballots already cast - 1.694831M are Dems, 1.438047 are GOPs and 1.374183 are Indies.

I'll give Biden 5% of the GOP vote and 98% of the Dem vote and give him 51% of the Indies.

Right now that would put totals at 2,982,134 for Biden and 2,600,346 for Trump

Total available votes remaining = 2.7935M

Again assume 70% of remaining GOP shows up, 30% of Dems and 30% of Indies. So 1,148,869 votes left. Same splits as above on election day. You get 463,912 for Biden and 685,178 for Trump

Sum total = Biden 3,446,046 and Trump 3,285,524.

I'm trying to be liberal towards Trump on election day turnout with these assumptions and he still comes up short. Of course this presumes I have a clue how indie voters are likely to roll.

To be clear, so far the exact same percentage of registered Dems and registered GOPs have voted. African Americans have voted 58% of their registered. Whites have voted 64% of theirs. Women 63% of their registers have voted. Men 59%. Still some squish in those numbers - will African Americans turn out tomorrow in bigger numbers? There are over 600,000 more registered women voters in NC than men too.
 
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This could come down to Maine 2 if Trump takes FL and PA. Joe could be 1 shy.
 
Just woke up from an anxiety dream in which I checked the 538 forecast and it had suddenly turned to 51-49% Trump. Yeah, the next 48 hours are gonna be a blast.
 
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