DeacMan
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2011
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I'm growing more confident this is a Biden landslide.
FL - 68% of all GOP registered voters have voted. 67% of all Dems. 52% of all Indies. And, on a relative basis, a more significant percentage of GOP registered voters in Miami-Dade have already voted than have the % of Dems. Bottom line - unless Indies broke hard to Trump, Biden should be in front in FL right now. And I'm not sure there are enough votes out there for Trump to catch him.
NC - Similar to FL.
MI - I'm admittedly cherry picking data, but over 2.8M people have voted. Well over 1M people over the age of 65 have voted. And they were expected to go big to Biden. I'm estimating more than 50% of the vote is already in the bag. And the old and young turnout looks solid, both groups for Biden. Again, are there enough votes left from his base to take the state? I tend to think its a tough climb.
The theme over and over for me is to see how these big early vote numbers have broken. If Biden is ahead I'm skeptical in many of these states if Trump has enough remaining voters to catch up.
And then look at this map - the most heavy pre-vote counties in FL are ones that went to Trump in 2016. Collier, Sumter, St. John's and Martin. Meanwhile Broward and Miami-Dade have more modest turnouts and more Dem focused. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html
And check this out in NC. 28% of the early vote did not vote in the 2016 election - over 1M voters.
FL - 68% of all GOP registered voters have voted. 67% of all Dems. 52% of all Indies. And, on a relative basis, a more significant percentage of GOP registered voters in Miami-Dade have already voted than have the % of Dems. Bottom line - unless Indies broke hard to Trump, Biden should be in front in FL right now. And I'm not sure there are enough votes out there for Trump to catch him.
NC - Similar to FL.
MI - I'm admittedly cherry picking data, but over 2.8M people have voted. Well over 1M people over the age of 65 have voted. And they were expected to go big to Biden. I'm estimating more than 50% of the vote is already in the bag. And the old and young turnout looks solid, both groups for Biden. Again, are there enough votes left from his base to take the state? I tend to think its a tough climb.
The theme over and over for me is to see how these big early vote numbers have broken. If Biden is ahead I'm skeptical in many of these states if Trump has enough remaining voters to catch up.
And then look at this map - the most heavy pre-vote counties in FL are ones that went to Trump in 2016. Collier, Sumter, St. John's and Martin. Meanwhile Broward and Miami-Dade have more modest turnouts and more Dem focused. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html
And check this out in NC. 28% of the early vote did not vote in the 2016 election - over 1M voters.
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