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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

So Michigan has a hot/smart Governor and a hot/smart secretary of state. I'm a Badger fan, but definitely Mich over Ohio State forever.

It’s like you were put here to be my opposite
 
Whitmer seems like the type who just wants to sit on your face all the time.
 
Definitely hotter than NC's SoS !

Makes me want to file some Articles of Incorporation !

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This is why I feel pretty damn good generally.

Let's look at known math from Florida and make assumptions that favor Trump somewhat on expected split vote split per national polling and dramatically on election day turnout.

- 5.02 M registered GOP voters
- 5.20 M registered Dem voters
- 3.7 M registered as independents

The belief is that Biden is winning 11% of the GOP vote nationwide. Let's call that 7% in Florida.
2% more registered Dems voted early than registered GOPs
Biden by all accounts is winning independents. Again, let's say in FL by 3% (likely more but let's use 3%).

3.51M Dems have voted. 97-3 for Biden = 3.4047M to 105,300
3.4M GOPs have voted. 93-7 for Trump = 238,000 to 3.162M
1.93M Indies have voted. 51.5-48.5M for Biden = 993,950 to 936,050
8.975M total have voted

Present totals - 4.63665M for Biden to 4.20335M for Trump

Potential votes left -

Dems = 1.69M
GOP = 1.62M
Indies = 1.77M

Presume 70% of the GOPs show up on election day = 1.134M more votes = 79,380 to 1.05462M
Presume 30% of the Dems show up on election day = 507,000 more votes = 491,790 to 15,210
Presume 30% of the Indies show up on election day = 531,000 more votes = 273,465 to 257,535

Totals on election day = 844,635 to 1.082M

Final Total = 5.52M for Biden and 5.29M for Trump

That's Biden 51% and Trump 49%. Trump loses even with much more extensive GOP turnout vs. Dems on election day by 230K votes.

I am starting to question this analysis.
 
Holy fck NC is coming down to the wire. The anti maskers will probably win it for trump in the end
 
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