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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

Trying not to step in shit here - the relative value of racially representational politicians is often countered by the ideological bent of the politicians. As difficult as it is for a black person to rise in politics. its even more difficult for a radical black person to rise in politics. You can read the Chicago BLM response to their black female mayor to see how different black liberal perspectives can be
 
Lincoln Project's first Kamala ad.
 
Can't help but think this Harris pick is a dud. She vastly underperformed in the democratic primaries because she didn't come off as likable, not sure I see the upside to this pick. Did we want to really really make sure we locked up California?

The dem strategy of basically being the Bachelor producers and force feeding us POC or female leads is a losing one. If you've got a Michelle Obama-esque likable candidate, run her. But we don't need to force a woman onto a ticket just to be progressive. Especially when if you just run a guy who looks like Pence you probably win the WH for the next 20 years by taking all the swing states. That's why I'm all about mayor Pete.
 
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538's model is up and running:

 
Which Clinton state does Trump pick up? 42% seems like real high odds.
 
so basically in reading the 28% for Trump is somewhat based on the time for things to happen. so every day Joe runs out the clock i guess that number should go down
 
stugotz said:
Can't help but think this Harris pick is a dud. She vastly underperformed in the democratic primaries because she didn't come off as likable, not sure I see the upside to this pick. Did we want to really really make sure we locked up California?

The dem strategy of basically being the Bachelor producers and force feeding us POC or female leads is a losing one. If you've got a Michelle Obama-esque likable candidate, run her. But we don't need to force a woman onto a ticket just to be progressive. Especially when if you just run a guy who looks like Pence you probably win the WH for the next 20 years by taking all the swing states. That's why I'm all about mayor Pete.
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A lot to unpack here.
 
stugotz said:
Can't help but think this Harris pick is a dud. She vastly underperformed in the democratic primaries because she didn't come off as likable, not sure I see the upside to this pick. Did we want to really really make sure we locked up California?

The dem strategy of basically being the Bachelor producers and force feeding us POC or female leads is a losing one. If you've got a Michelle Obama-esque likable candidate, run her. But we don't need to force a woman onto a ticket just to be progressive. Especially when if you just run a guy who looks like Pence you probably win the WH for the next 20 years by taking all the swing states. That's why I'm all about mayor Pete.
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She dropped out in December 2019 before the primaries were held.
 
One of the reasons Kamala didn’t gain traction is the hate from people like Shaun King who are now on her bandwagon.
 
birdman said:
Nevada? New Hapmshire? ...maybe.
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I'd throw in MN. Clinton won it by 1-2 points, and a poll yesterday showed Biden up by 2. Race will be the #1 issue or at least subtext in this election, and MN is very white. I'd say MN, NV and NH in that order. And the more I think about it, the more I think Harris is a pretty safe pick who won't negatively affect Biden's chances in any particular states. But as a practical matter, I don't think Biden will lose any Clinton states, and he's consistently had small leads in states like FL, NC and AZ and is effectively tied in GA, so it's looking pretty promising.
 
cville deac said:
I'd throw in MN. Clinton won it by 1-2 points, and a poll yesterday showed Biden up by 2. Race will be the #1 issue or at least subtext in this election, and MN is very white. I'd say MN, NV and NH in that order. And the more I think about it, the more I think Harris is a pretty safe pick who won't negatively affect Biden's chances in any particular states. But as a practical matter, I don't think Biden will lose any Clinton states, and he's consistently had small leads in states like FL, NC and AZ and is effectively tied in GA, so it's looking pretty promising.
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Yeah, MN too. 538 gives a state by state break down and in MN Biden currently has a ~72% chance of winning. Every poll that list says biden is ahead from 2-18 points.
 
stugotz said:
Can't help but think this Harris pick is a dud. She vastly underperformed in the democratic primaries because she didn't come off as likable, not sure I see the upside to this pick. Did we want to really really make sure we locked up California?

The dem strategy of basically being the Bachelor producers and force feeding us POC or female leads is a losing one. If you've got a Michelle Obama-esque likable candidate, run her. But we don't need to force a woman onto a ticket just to be progressive. Especially when if you just run a guy who looks like Pence you probably win the WH for the next 20 years by taking all the swing states. That's why I'm all about mayor Pete.
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Lol. You think with the BLM unrest this year and black people not showing up 4 years ago for Hillary, the Black community is going to show up for Biden and and some random old white guy?
 
The chance to win a Clinton state is also not simply looking at each state individually but the odds considering every state, so if Trump had a 10 percent chance across like 10 states then there you go, the predictive odds are a lot higher than 10 percent since 10 percent needs to hold up 10 times.
 
For perspective on the 42%, if-to oversimplify-Joe Biden had a 83% of winning three states that Hillary won (say, NV, NH, and MN), and a 100% chance of winning the other states that Hillary won, that works out to Trump having a 42% chance of winning one of the states Hillary won.
 
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