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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

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s November 3 approaches, many prognosticators are trying to convince Americans that former Vice President Joe Biden is a lock to win the presidency. Of course, they said the same about Hillary Clinton's chances in 2016 and it didn’t come to pass. Just as in 2016, there are tea leaves, if you will, indicating that President Trump will win again.

Here are ten of those tea leaves:

1. Pennsylvania Voter Registration

American presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College as President Trump and Joe Biden both know.

In 2016, Pennsylvania and its 20 Electoral College votes were key to President Trump’s victory. He won Pennsylvania by a slim 44,292 votes out of nearly 6 million. That November, the Democrats had nearly a 900,000 voter registration advantage over the Republicans. That number is now down to a 700,000 registration advantage and has narrowed to 100,000 in the last year.

No one can logically say that improves the Democrats' chances to win Pennsylvania in 2020.

2. Florida, too.

In 2008, Democrats held nearly a 700,000 thousand voter registration advantage and Barack Obama carried the state by 236,148 votes. By 2012 that advantage slipped to 558,272 registrations and Obama won there by 74,309 votes.

In 2016, Democrats had a 327,483 registration advantage and Trump carried the state by 112,991 votes.

Byron York on the presidential race with 15 days until election: Trump going ‘full tilt,’ Biden ‘going dark’Video
Now the Democrats' voter registration advantage is down nearly 200,000 to just a 134,242 thousand lead, which Politico called a “historic low.”

Obviously, the movement towards Republicans bodes well for the president.

3. Latinos for Trump.

Trump could well receive a historic level of support from Latino Voters in 2020. In Florida, a NBC/Marist poll had Trump leading among Latinos 50% to 46% over Biden, whereas, in 2016, Hillary won among Latinos in Florida 62% to 35%. That would be a 15% swing toward Trump if it held up on Election Day.

After the first debate between Biden and Trump, a Telemundo poll showed Trump winning the debate overwhelmingly 66% to 34%. Snap media polls tend to reflect the sentiment of their viewers. Thus, it is no surprise that CNN viewers said Biden won the debate. The fact that Telemundo viewers decisively picked Trump as the winner, along with polls like those cited above in Florida, portend Trump getting the highest ever Latino support of any Republican presidential candidate.

4. African Americans For Trump.

In September, according to polling done by Rasmussen, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans reached 45%. Keep in mind that President Trump only received 8% of the Black vote in 2016. If Trump received just 16% of the Black vote this November, let alone an even higher number, that would all but secure states like Michigan for Trump.

5. Biden the Tax Increaser.

Candidates who promise tax increases, or have a history of supporting tax increases, tend to lose versus those pushing for tax cuts.

President Jimmy Carter lost to challenger Ronald Reagan, Walter Mondale lost to President Reagan, Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush 41 and then 41 lost his reelection after his tax increase became a reality. George W. Bush beat Al Gore and then John Kerry.

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Barack Obama promised to reduce taxes and he beat John McCain who was not a tax cutter. Obviously, President Trump offered tax cuts while running against, and beating, Hillary Clinton.

Joe Biden, on the other hand, is pushing for the largest tax increase in history.

Advantage Trump.

6. Enthusiasm Matters.

As the New York Post has reported, “just 46 percent of Biden voters in a recent Pew poll said that they strongly support him, compared to 66 percent of Trump’s base.”

That is a 20 gap. In 2016, Trump had only a 13 point gap over Hillary. That increase of 7% bodes well for Trump, not Biden.

7. Early Voting in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

National polling from Pew Research indicates that “55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.”

However, in the key battleground states of Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin the early voting indicates that “registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats.” The parties are even in Michigan, Democrats up 2% in Wisconsin and the Republicans up 2% in Ohio.

8. American Voters Are More Satisfied in 2020 than they were in 2016.

A new Gallup poll shows that 56% of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years ago. That could well be the telling in this case given that just four years ago marked the end of the Biden vice presidency. Why would voters return to Biden if they are happier now than when he was in office?

9. Party Identification.

According to Gallup, by the end of September, when the polling firm asked voters this question, “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?” the answer came back as follows: 28% said Republican, 27% said Democrat and 42% said independent.

That is meaningful because many of the polls giving Biden the lead appear to be sampling more Democrats than Republicans – sometimes by a wide margin. Also, in 2016, Gallup had Democrats up 32% to 27% but, as we know, Trump still won.

10. Voters Think Trump Will Win.

In the Trump era, there has been a lot of talk about whether Trump supporters feel free to tell pollsters that they are supporting the president's reelection. Some experts point to polls asking voters who they believe will win the election to be a truer indication of candidate support.

Once again this bodes well for President Trump as a “Gallup poll shows only 40% of Americans think Biden will win the election; 56% predict a Trump victory.”

So, who will win the 2020 presidential election?

We don't know yet and only time will tell but polls that say Biden is way ahead are could be under-polling Republican participation like they did in 2016 when they said Hillary was up by 14% just a week before the election.

Stronger evidence of where voter sentiment lies is included in the tea leaves above.

So, too, is the fact that Republicans have been working the door-to-door ground game in important states whereas Democrats have only just started to do so.

All of this indicates that President Trump may well surprise his doubters on November 3rd and win again.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-surprise-victory-tom-del-beccaro
 
Dude. Of course it will be played up on Fox. It will be played up on Fox regardless of if it actually happens. You act like independent voters - if any remain - are lapping up FoxNews 24/7. They aren't.

lots of independent voters get their news from friends on social media. the shit that Fox plays up has a tendency to filter out into that ecosystem and spread
 
lots of independent voters get their news from friends on social media. the shit that Fox plays up has a tendency to filter out into that ecosystem and spread

yeah my MIL is fairly conservative, but only watches CNN and is 100% voting Biden. she was asking my wife yesterday about who this Candace Owens person is, because her friends want her to look into her more to show that Trump isn't racist.
 
I really hope that opinion piece from Fox News isn’t the case. I do worry about another election where Republican cowardice is underrepresented in polls again.
 
Pops - Seriously, WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT.

Here's what happened today.

1 - The president issued a written statement that he signed for "national character week". In the statement he called on all of us to be more honest, ethical and caring towards our fellow man.


2 - During the course of the day he then:

A - Called Dr. Fauci and other scientists "idiots";

B - Labeled a news network a bunch of "dumb bastards"; and

C - Played down the impacts of Covid-19 while holding yet another potential super spreader event in Arizona.

This all happened a few days after he released an ad that features Dr. Fauci - grossly out of context in a way that caused Fauci to correct the ad publicly.

Trump continues to run Biden's campaign for Biden brilliantly.

You left out:

D: Called Joe Biden a criminal and told reporters they were criminals for not reporting on Biden's criminality.
 

After 2016 there are very few people here who are saying that Biden has this in the bag. Of course Trump can still win, and of course there's always the chance that there are millions of secret Trump voters who are too gutless to admit it in public (why are they ashamed to admit they like the man?) but will flood to the polls on election day to vote him. The polls in battleground states have consistently been closer than national polls, which is always worrisome. I don't think that the great majority of this board would be surprised at all if Trump wins. It would be a national disaster, as no one who is at all objective can look at the unmitigated chaos and implosion happening right now and believe that the nation won't continue to suffer going forward, but of course he can still win. The Republicans have spent the last quarter-century building an immensely powerful propaganda network that tells their voters only what they want to hear, and is masterful at keeping them angry and frightened enough to crawl to the polls on election day. On social media nutty groups like Qanon have gained millions of followers, and Trumpism has gone from a political movement to a kind of weird quasi-religious cult. Put all those together and that's hard to beat. But relatively few posters here think that this election is over, I sure as hell don't.
 
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After 2016 there are very few people here who are saying that Biden has this in the bag. Of course Trump can still win, and of course there's always the chance that there are millions of secret Trump voters who are too gutless to admit it in public (why are they ashamed to admit they like the man?) but will flood to the polls on election day to vote him. The polls in battleground states have consistently been closer than national polls, which is always worrisome. I don't think that the great majority of this board would be surprised at all if Trump wins. It would be a national disaster, as no one who is at all objective can look at the unmitigated chaos and implosion happening right now and believe that the nation won't continue to suffer going forward, but of course he can still win. The Republicans have spent the last quarter-century building an immensely powerful propaganda network that tells their voters only what they want to hear, and is masterful at keeping them angry and frightened enough to crawl to the polls on election day. On social media nutty groups like Qanon have gained millions of followers, and Trumpism has gone from a political movement to a kind of weird quasi-religious cult. Put all those together and that's hard to beat. But relatively few posters here think that this election is over, I sure as hell don't.

I've been saying for months that Biden has this in the bag and I'll be shocked if he wins.
 
I think Biden is going to win both the popular vote and EC, and I think it's more likely that Trump wins by fighting the results in the courts than actually getting more votes in the right states, but it is by no means in the bag. Lot of time for something to happen that will let "undecided" people to bosides the issue.
 
I had a woman come to my door yesterday saying she was with the RNC trying to get out the vote and asked if my wife and I were planning on voting, how we were planning to do so, and who I was voting for.

I know the information is in the public domain but it’s a bit disconcerting for a total stranger to come to my door and know my name and my wife’s name.
 
#3, #4, and #8 are definitely "What the fuck?" moments for me. Very hard to believe statistics a no links or sources are provided other than "A new Gallop Poll." If those three bullets are true we may indeed have to suffer through a second trump term.

Grabbing outlier polls without looking at general polling trends let’s you draw some batshit conclusions.
 
I had a woman come to my door yesterday saying she was with the RNC trying to get out the vote and asked if my wife and I were planning on voting, how we were planning to do so, and who I was voting for.

I know the information is in the public domain but it’s a bit disconcerting for a total stranger to come to my door and know my name and my wife’s name.

You are displaying your age, and not in a good way. There are these things called "phone books". They used to be free and super thick and delivered right to your door. You'd open it up and could find the name, address and home phone number of every person in your area code who did not "opt out" - which was a rare thing for someone to do. Now they are online and for a small fee you can still use them.
 
Grabbing outlier polls without looking at general polling trends let’s you draw some batshit conclusions.

Over 60 million people voted for a reality tv show caricature for president 4 years ago. Nick Nolte getting 10 million write in votes wouldn’t even be a batshit conclusion. We are a joke.
 
Yeah any sane country would have Trump losing like 80-20 or something with only the racist, Qanon, crazy hardcore base remaining, yet here were are.
 
are people as brain diseased by Facebook and stuff elsewhere? like are the Boris Johnson supporters in the UK all in on some British version of Q?
 
Yes, I know you have, but I haven't gotten that sentiment from most of the other posters here.

Bc at least some of those other posters have long been convinced the primary reason HRC could not beat DJT is because she has a vagina and are ignoring a host of other truths about the two elections.

Among others:

1 - Trump will actually do a bit better with African Americans this go round than in 2016

2 - Trump will actually do a bit better with Hispanics this go round than in 2016

3 - Trump will do far worse with college educated voters than in 2016

4 - Trump will do far worse with white women than in 2016; a group that, ironically, was an important component to his success in 2016

5 - Trump will do worse with white men than he did in 2016

6 - Trump will do worse with rural voters than he did in 2016

7 - Trump will do far worse with suburban voters than he did in 2016

8 - Trump will do worse with Seniors than he did in 2016

9 - Turnout will be "up" among African American and Hispanic voters; which will net hurt Trump even if he does a bit better with them than in 2016

In short, his paths are significantly more narrow than in 2016 and he barely eeked out victory in 2016.
 
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Remember that time Sailor said he wasn't voting for Trump?

that-was-awesome-5a99e6.jpg
 
Bc at least some of those other posters have long been convinced the primary reason HRC could not beat DJT is because she has a vagina and are ignoring a host of other truths about the two elections.

Among others:

1 - Trump will actually do a bit better with African Americans this go round than in 2016

2 - Trump will actually do a bit better with Hispanics this go round than in 2016

3 - Trump will do far worse with college educated voters than in 2016

4 - Trump will do far worse with white women than in 2016; a group that, ironically, was an important component to his success in 2016

5 - Trump will do worse with white men than he did in 2016

6 - Trump will do worse with rural voters than he did in 2016

7 - Trump will do far worse with suburban voters than he did in 2016

8 - Trump will do worse with Seniors than he did in 2016

9 - Turnout will be "up" among African American and Hispanic voters; which will net hurt Trump even if he does a bit better with them than in 2016

In short, his paths are significantly more narrow than in 2016 and he barely eeked out victory in 2016.



agreed, this is about what i have heard and read concerning this election.
 
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