This is why I feel pretty damn good generally.
Let's look at known math from Florida and make assumptions that favor Trump somewhat on expected split vote split per national polling and dramatically on election day turnout.
- 5.02 M registered GOP voters
- 5.20 M registered Dem voters
- 3.7 M registered as independents
The belief is that Biden is winning 11% of the GOP vote nationwide. Let's call that 7% in Florida.
2% more registered Dems voted early than registered GOPs
Biden by all accounts is winning independents. Again, let's say in FL by 3% (likely more but let's use 3%).
3.51M Dems have voted. 97-3 for Biden = 3.4047M to 105,300
3.4M GOPs have voted. 93-7 for Trump = 238,000 to 3.162M
1.93M Indies have voted. 51.5-48.5M for Biden = 993,950 to 936,050
8.975M total have voted
Present totals - 4.63665M for Biden to 4.20335M for Trump
Potential votes left -
Dems = 1.69M
GOP = 1.62M
Indies = 1.77M
Presume 70% of the GOPs show up on election day = 1.134M more votes = 79,380 to 1.05462M
Presume 30% of the Dems show up on election day = 507,000 more votes = 491,790 to 15,210
Presume 30% of the Indies show up on election day = 531,000 more votes = 273,465 to 257,535
Totals on election day = 844,635 to 1.082M
Final Total = 5.52M for Biden and 5.29M for Trump
That's Biden 51% and Trump 49%. Trump loses even with much more extensive GOP turnout vs. Dems on election day by 230K votes.