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Clawson to Self Isolate During Season

HONDO2 said:
The last thing the radical left controlling the Democratic Party want is debates.

I anticipate a planned haggling over fluff like format, locations and moderators will develope dooming the tradition.
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who are some of the leaders of the party you consider "radical[ly] left"?
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
well she did get three million more votes
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Yeah another important thing to remember regarding national polling is that Clinton won the national vote by 2.1%. So when comparing polls for accuracy the starting point is poll average v. 2.1%, not “Donald won” v. polling average.
 
Did we ever figure out hondo’s age? Cause this thread is a pretty good clue.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Biden’s aggregate lead is higher currently than any lead Hillary ever had. He’s up by almost 10 percent in aggregate polling (6 points higher than Clinton was four months before the 2016 election), leads in state polling for electoral college at 368 total electors (need 270 to win), the tipping point state per 538 at this point (state that would determine winner if each candidate held their respective current blue/red state polling averages) would be Florida - a state Biden leads by 7.2 percent in aggregate polling, Biden also leads Donald by at least 4.5 percent in polls in seven states that lean R generally and Donald would have to win all of simply to even reach Florida as a tipping point state, and several states that Donald won in the Midwest in 2016 are democratic leaning overall while Donald won them by under 1.5% each.

So TLDR; yes Hillary led in polling leading up to the 2016 election (but within the MOE- I believe 538 gave Donald a roughly 1 in 4 shot to win Election Day. Put another way, the same odds that if you flip a coin twice in a row you get heads both times) but the underlying context of states Biden leads plus the lead that he currently has (around 3x as big as Clinton’s Election Day polling lead) suggests that if the election were today Biden would be a very very heavy favorite.
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And a lot can happen in four months, don’t you think?

We shall see
 
HONDO2 said:
And a lot can happen in four months, don’t you think?

We shall see
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Of course. I wasn’t saying hes guaranteed to win I was saying that he’s increased his polling lead while staying under the radar, in response to comments that he will have to come out of “hiding.” And that even comparing his position now to 2016 - an election which saw the democrat actually win the popular vote - he’s in excellent standing.

Interesting subsection of the NYT poll that came out was 77 percent of voters feel strongly about Donald - 50 percent total feel strongly unfavorably against 27 percent strongly favorably. Biden was 26-27 in the same two. So Donald has less wiggle room with adding voters if that poll is true. This NYT/Siena poll has an A+ rating from 538 as well FWIW.
 
”Well, one of the things that will be really great, you know the word experience is still good. I always say talent is more important than experience. I’ve always said that. But the word experience is a very important word. It’s an — a very important meaning.

I never did this before. I never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington, I think, 17 times. All of a sudden, I’m president of the United States. You know the story. I’m riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our First Lady and I say, ‘This is great. But I didn’t know very many people in Washington. It wasn’t my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York. Now I know everybody, and I have great people in the administration.”

You make some mistakes. Like, you know, an idiot like Bolton. All he wanted to do was drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to drop bombs on everybody. You don’t have to kill people.”
 
I honestly appreciate your ability to have respectful and informed debate, wakeforest22890. Refreshing on this board when many devolve into name calling and shouting over a keyboard. Thanks for the stats and the facts
 
Anyone, and I mean anyone, that thinks biden, aging rapidly or not, is in anyway comparable to trump you are a nazi or not paying attention. I'll tell you a something that is obvious to every dem and indepent voter. Every time trump opens his mouth its self serving and probably a lie. Sound bites from fox news or oan are not telling even a portion of the story. Fox lawyers just admitted in court in their night time shows are NOT news. They are for entertainment and are not subject to vetting the facts like a news cast would be.

Murdoch and fox news are complicit in the downfall of our country and the donald just fiddles. On the bright side, he probably hasn't had the chance to sexually assault anyone recently. Come to think of it talking to billy bush was the most honest he's been in a long long time.
 
Aka fake news. Always be projecting trump and trumpublican's are.
 
can you imagine being a person who says, with a straight face, that biden’s gaffes are concerning considering all the shit that comes out of trump’s mouth?
 
Based on the response I received from merely saying I'm still undecided as an independent, my guess is the polls may be off by six or eight points. I foresee many independents being scared to tell pollsters their true feelings in this cancel culture era. Just calling someone a Nazi or racist for not thinking like you will not win you votes
 
ironwill24 said:
Based on the response I received from merely saying I'm still undecided as an independent, my guess is the polls may be off by six or eight points. I foresee many independents being scared to tell pollsters their true feelings in this cancel culture era. Just calling someone a Nazi or racist for not thinking like you will not win you votes
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Hope they have a Plan B.
 
Donald Trump is a narcissistic sociopath who admired and modeled his career after Roy Cohn, who was McCarthy's hatchet man in the red baiting trials. I don't see how anyone could vote for that jackass. He should be in prison.
 
ironwill24 said:
Based on the response I received from merely saying I'm still undecided as an independent, my guess is the polls may be off by six or eight points. I foresee many independents being scared to tell pollsters their true feelings in this cancel culture era. Just calling someone a Nazi or racist for not thinking like you will not win you votes
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Is there any evidence of this kind of bias ever occurring in composite national polling? the right brings out this argument every time they are down in polling.

Trump benefitted from the October surprise with Comey, but nothing that came out of his justice department would move the needle because everybody knows its just a corrupt political sideshow.

Speculating that national polls are off 8 points is some serious wishful thinking.
 
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ChrisL68 said:
Is there any evidence of this kind of bias ever occurring in composite national polling? the right brings out this argument every time they are down in polling.

Trump benefitted from the October surprise with Comey, but nothing that came out of his justice department would move the needle because everybody knows its just a corrupt political sideshow.

Speculating that national polls are off 8 points is some serious wishful thinking.
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It's not wishful. I really, really do not care who wins. If Biden brings more Obama style governance then I'll be happy. Merely speculating and I could be Wrong. I drive a lot for work I'm NC and am seeing tons of Trump signs and not any Biden signs. I have a hunch this will be a closer election than you think.
 
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