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BillBrasky Memorial Political Chat Thread

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10 years is a long time. Google started their self driving car program 11 years ago.

Yeah, and the hard work has been done so it's not a linear path. The first and last mile issues can largely be solved with one-time infrastructure updates - that'll be a no-brainer compared to paying thousands of humans to try not to fall asleep for hours on end.

I went to an AI conference last year where an industry leader made a bet that anyone born from that day on will never have a driver's license. Out of 11 top vehicle manufacturers interviewed a few months ago, not one of them had fully automated urban driving with zero human interaction slated for after 2030. All of them were before.
 
That's a very safe bet. Even without self-driving vehicles saturating the market, ride sharing will still be popular post-pandemic.
 
Yeah, and the hard work has been done so it's not a linear path. The first and last mile issues can largely be solved with one-time infrastructure updates - that'll be a no-brainer compared to paying thousands of humans to try not to fall asleep for hours on end.

I went to an AI conference last year where an industry leader made a bet that anyone born from that day on will never have a driver's license. Out of 11 top vehicle manufacturers interviewed a few months ago, not one of them had fully automated urban driving with zero human interaction slated for after 2030. All of them were before.

Yeah, I was talking to my daughter, 11yrs old, about how her age group will be the last to ever need a drivers license, that by the time she is my age (31 years from now) cars will be like the rotary phones of my youth. Electric self driving cars are probably about where cellphones were in 1995.
 
people think all the cars in the US will be replaced with fully autonomous cars in 30 years? stupid poors can buy more money
 
Will need to have two self-driving car modes. City mode where everyone else is in a self-driving car, and rube mode where the self-driving algorithm takes into account you are out of the city surrounded by 30 year old Saturns and Oldsmobiles.
 
people think all the cars in the US will be replaced with fully autonomous cars in 30 years? stupid poors can buy more money

I'll speak for myself. I think cars as we know them now will be either a luxury item, antique items, or like landline phones.

I don't think car ownership will be nearly as common in 30 years, self driving or not. I think within 30 years, most people won't own cars and just summon a self-driving car when they need to go somewhere. There will be long-term rentals for travel like taking a self-driving RV on a long vacation. And then maybe a few wealthy people will own luxury self-driving vehicles.
 
Will need to have two self-driving car modes. City mode where everyone else is in a self-driving car, and rube mode where the self-driving algorithm takes into account you are out of the city surrounded by 30 year old Saturns and Oldsmobiles.

it'll just have to be generational. i don't think i have the patience to endure an AI driving through my neighborhood. Also, my GPS already needs to be updated and i'm too cheap to go to Subaru to get the new chip.

it just seems like a lot of in-between problems with car AI will defeat it beyond large cities and open highways.
 
I'll speak for myself. I think cars as we know them now will be either a luxury item, antique items, or like landline phones.

I don't think car ownership will be nearly as common in 30 years, self driving or not. I think within 30 years, most people won't own cars and just summon a self-driving car when they need to go somewhere. There will be long-term rentals for travel like taking a self-driving RV on a long vacation. And then maybe a few wealthy people will own luxury self-driving vehicles.

Might make going to a national park kind of suck-you'll have to go during peak season.
 
it'll just have to be generational. i don't think i have the patience to endure an AI driving through my neighborhood. Also, my GPS already needs to be updated and i'm too cheap to go to Subaru to get the new chip.

it just seems like a lot of in-between problems with car AI will defeat it beyond large cities and open highways.

you use the car GPS as opposed to your phone? I think I've used each of our cars' GPSs once and they are so cumbersome to get set-up. Apple Carplay is awesome, however. Especially now that you can do Google Maps on it.
 
Yeah, and the hard work has been done so it's not a linear path. The first and last mile issues can largely be solved with one-time infrastructure updates - that'll be a no-brainer compared to paying thousands of humans to try not to fall asleep for hours on end.

I went to an AI conference last year where an industry leader made a bet that anyone born from that day on will never have a driver's license. Out of 11 top vehicle manufacturers interviewed a few months ago, not one of them had fully automated urban driving with zero human interaction slated for after 2030. All of them were before.

Infrastructure updates? You mean like giving every single business in the US its own interstate off ramp?
 
I'll speak for myself. I think cars as we know them now will be either a luxury item, antique items, or like landline phones.

I don't think car ownership will be nearly as common in 30 years, self driving or not. I think within 30 years, most people won't own cars and just summon a self-driving car when they need to go somewhere. There will be long-term rentals for travel like taking a self-driving RV on a long vacation. And then maybe a few wealthy people will own luxury self-driving vehicles.

In cities yea, but people in rural areas are still going to need to get around and probably wont want to wait 45min for a car anytime they need to go anywhere.
 
Depends on how rural. Way out in the sticks miles away from anybody else? Sure. And they'd either keep or buy a regular car for that purpose.

A small town? Depends. One possible model is that a company akin to a rental car company could maintain a small fleet of vehicles for people in the town to use based on a subscription model. A large percentage would be reserved for in-town driving on weekdays and then a larger percentage would be out of town driving on the weekends and holidays. Residents could pay for a monthly subscription with different tiers based on how much they plan to travel from an unlimited teir to a cents per mile tier for less frequent travelers.

Models like this are why the self-driving car game cuts across tech companies, auto manufacturers, trucking companies, rental car companies, ride share companies, etc.
 
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