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BillBrasky Memorial Political Chat Thread

ImTheCaptain said:
people think all the cars in the US will be replaced with fully autonomous cars in 30 years? stupid poors can buy more money
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I think so. Or at least the ratio of autonomous to manual vehicle will be severely shifted towards autonomous by then. Think about the last thirty years, how fast tech has moved on so many things. I remember going to the Wiz with my dad back in '95 when I was in high school and they were selling flat screen TVs that cost $15000 and now TV's with bigger screens sell for $200. I guess the infrastructure for cars is a lot harder to build than TV's but this stuff changes remarkably fast once it gets going.
 
PhDeac said:
Depends on how rural. Way out in the sticks miles away from anybody else? Sure. And they'd either keep or buy a regular car for that purpose.

A small town? Depends. One possible model is that a company akin to a rental car company could maintain a small fleet of vehicles for people in the town to use based on a subscription model. A large percentage would be reserved for in-town driving on weekdays and then a larger percentage would be out of town driving on the weekends and holidays. Residents could pay for a monthly subscription with different tiers based on how much they plan to travel from an unlimited teir to a cents per mile tier for less frequent travelers.

Models like this are why the self-driving car game cuts across tech companies, auto manufacturers, trucking companies, rental car companies, ride share companies, etc.
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Yeah. Zipcar.
 
Ehhhh I don't really think we'll go that far as a country. I could see individual cities making it prohibitively expensive for individuals to own cars once there is a self driving on demand fleet available. But I think having the freedom to get in your car and drive is so interwoven with the American identity that any attempt by the federal government to pull levers to discourage car ownership overall is going to be met with some pretty stiff resistance.
 
I feel like people don't understand how long 30 years is. The internet was barely a thing 30 years ago. Cell phones were a luxury item 30 years ago. The Sega Genesis was the hot new gaming console 30 years ago. And people can do all of that on a smart phone today.
 
What is something that has fundamentally changed the way someone is a small town in the middle of nowhere goes about their average day. The only thing I can think of is cell phone/access to internet and even that for most people isnt work, or life changing, it’s more entertainment. A self driving car would be a massive fundamental shift on how you live your life and I don’t think most of the technology people are talking about really does that. Seems most is like innovation while a self driving car while still innovating a car is more akin to carriage to car leap.
 
I don't see that at all. Sitting in a car and driving vs. sitting in a car and not driving isn't a "massive fundamental shift." Being able to look up information and correspond with people from anywhere is a massive fundamental shift.

Now we can talk about shifts away from car ownership and the cultural role that cars play in US culture, particularly as status symbols. Those would be shifts, but not something that would change how people operate in their everyday lives.
 
I just wonder what's going to happen to all of those truckers and cabdrivers and others who drive for a living and will be out of work. Another massive number of displaced workers who likely will be unable to find other employment, or at least employment that pays the same. Even fast-food places, which don't usually pay that well but at least provide a large number of jobs to many people, will likely become more automated and need fewer workers. And it's a good bet that many if not most of those angry and bitter displaced workers will join a future populist, anti-globalist/hi tech/anti-expert Trumpite GOP.
 
PhDeac said:
I don't see that at all. Sitting in a car and driving vs. sitting in a car and not driving isn't a "massive fundamental shift." Being able to look up information and correspond with people from anywhere is a massive fundamental shift.

Now we can talk about shifts away from car ownership and the cultural role that cars play in US culture, particularly as status symbols. Those would be shifts, but not something that would change how people operate in their everyday lives.
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Yeah the first part is not a big shift. Once people realize that the permissible blood alcohol levels to operate a car will go up and that you can text and drive with low risk of death, they will be excited about autonomous vehicles.
 
birdman said:
Yeah the first part is not a big shift. Once people realize that the permissible blood alcohol levels to operate a car will go up and that you can text and drive with low risk of death, they will be excited about autonomous vehicles.
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Exactly. If we went directly from early 2000s transportation to self-driving vehicles, it would be a huge shift. But people are used to ride sharing. They want to text while driving. Self-driving vehicles facilitate how we live now.
 
Self driving cars is essentially universal public transportation, seems pretty huge of a shift to me compared to what we have now.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Self driving cars is essentially universal public transportation, seems pretty huge of a shift to me compared to what we have now.
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Depends on how it works. But even so, the biggest shift would be that people wouldn't own cars but they'd still sit in cars to go from place to another. That's not a major shift. Even with all the advances in automotive technology, driving cars is a pretty stable practice. Remarkably stable. My drivers license from almost 30 years ago is still in play because the practice of driving hasn't changed. People don't have to reskill to drive a new generation of vehicles. This is less of a change. People just have to sit in a car like passengers, something they already know how to do.
 
A future of constantly having the experience of waiting for a parking lot shuttle.

I’ll pass.
 
Then buy your own.
 
The number of times I’d like to drive drunk or distracted are far, far outweighed by the number of times I want to get in my car and go without waiting. And I’m betting most people feel like that.
 
How often do people decide they want to go somewhere and go immediately? I feel like people usual plan to drive somewhere and then do it.
 
I just don't see driving a car ever completely going away; there will always be a certain segment of the population that will want to drive their own car. No doubt some will be glad to get a self-driving car, but I don't see it ever getting to the point that everyone will accept it. My guess is it will get a mixed response - some will go for it and some won't.
 
How good are self driving cars at avoiding a kid or animal that unexpectedly runs out into the street?
 
Highland Deac said:
I just don't see driving a car ever completely going away; there will always be a certain segment of the population that will want to drive their own car. No doubt some will be glad to get a self-driving car, but I don't see it ever getting to the point that everyone will accept it. My guess is it will get a mixed response - some will go for it and some won't.
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I think it'll be another element of the urban/rural divide. Would make sense to have a fleet of self driving on demand cars in dense urban areas. Not so much in really spread out rural areas though.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
A future of constantly having the experience of waiting for a parking lot shuttle.

I’ll pass.
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I don't buy in to Ph's idea that people will abandon car ownership, but I think individuals own their own autonomous vehicles. I think 30 years from now the costs will be way down and the vehicles will be affordable, so that the majority of car owning society will have them.
 
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