Louis Gossett Jr
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Where’s the Atlantic poster, time to discuss how progressives really are pussies and refuse to come out of hiding.
COVID Thread 2: Operation Ludicrous Speed ! (Super Political!!!)
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PhDeac
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[h=1]School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas[/h]
This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adults’ behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w28753
This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adults’ behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w28753
ImTheCaptain
I disagree with you
yeah i read that article - i definitely have friends that are squarely in that camp.
warak
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not sure why that would have lead to an argument...it doesn't really seem like any of your fucking business.
We still have 40,000 cases per day and about 700 deaths per day. The case numbers are improving quickly, so we'll be in a much better place soon. Can you not visit your friend outside? Well over half a million US citizens have died from COVID - someone exercising extra caution seems reasonable.
plama
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We live in the state with the least amount of coronavirus in the country ... and again, are both fully vaccinated. There's caution and being scared of your own shadow.
Some COVID thoughts...
The numbers from Israel look fantastic. The have gone from 12,000 cases per day to 8 cases yesterday, and deaths from 80 per day to 1 or 0 per day.
The Seychelles story is interesting. They locked down, had essentially no cases, vaccinated 60% of their population (mostly with Sinopharm from China), opened up (including to tourists) and had a huge spike in cases, and then locked down and it appears cases have drastically reduced again (though it's not clear to me how often they report data). This is just one more piece of info that shows how effective social distancing is.
I assume the conspiracy theorists that were touting Ivermectin a month ago have moved on to something else? One of their arguments was that India was using it and that's why their numbers were so low. Well, unfortunately that is no longer the case in India.
The numbers from Israel look fantastic. The have gone from 12,000 cases per day to 8 cases yesterday, and deaths from 80 per day to 1 or 0 per day.
The Seychelles story is interesting. They locked down, had essentially no cases, vaccinated 60% of their population (mostly with Sinopharm from China), opened up (including to tourists) and had a huge spike in cases, and then locked down and it appears cases have drastically reduced again (though it's not clear to me how often they report data). This is just one more piece of info that shows how effective social distancing is.
I assume the conspiracy theorists that were touting Ivermectin a month ago have moved on to something else? One of their arguments was that India was using it and that's why their numbers were so low. Well, unfortunately that is no longer the case in India.
I don't know about your friend, but for a lot of people they aren't worried as much about themselves getting COVID (because they are young and healthy) but they are worried about spreading it. There are a lot of people that cannot be vaccinated or the vaccine won't work (many of those on significant immunosuppression), and they don't want to spread it to those people. Thousands of break through COVID cases have occurred in vaccinated individuals, and those people can spread the virus. I think the numbers will drop quickly in the next few weeks - until then, just hang out outside with him.
plama
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in the Seychelles example, per the bloomberg article, as of the 8th of May none of the people who got vaccinated and got COVID had died. So it also seems the vaccine is doing what it's supposed to do.
plama
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he's young and healthy and worried about himself. He and his wife are both stay at home authors and their families are on the east coast. It's exactly the type of anxiety that is unnecessary.
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If they are both vaccinated there is no reason they can't meet inside.
Millions of people have died. People are going to ease back into life at different speeds, which seems totally reasonable to me. Getting into a fight over it seems quite unnecessary.
I think there have only been 8 total deaths since the new surge, so it’s small absolute numbers in the Seychelles, in general. And deaths lag cases by 2-3 weeks. And, there are some outcomes that can be pretty awful that aren’t death (I’ve seen many patients that now require life long dialysis after Covid, as just one example). But hopefully it is correct that the vaccines are preventing death and severe cases.
Louis Gossett Jr
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The problem is trying to justify apprehension with some bullshit here and some bullshit there. If it’s time to follow the science, the science says that once you are vaccinated your risk of being infected is incredibly low, if you do get infected your outcome will be very favorable, and it’s extremely unlikely you can or will transmit the virus to others. So after vaccination sure it’s a personal decision but it’s not rationale and more of a psychological thing. The messaging has been complete shit because once all of that was known it shouldn’t be mask up, don’t eat indoors, etc… it should have been if you get vaccinated enjoy bacchanalia!
Eh, I’m just not sure about that. That approach would lead to more vaccinated people dying (which has already happened, despite continued precautions), which could undermine vaccines further, even though it would be a tiny percent of people.
I just don’t think there needs to be an all or none approach, and it’s ok to ease back into things. I’ve seen many older and/or immunocompromised patients that did not develop antibodies after vaccination, and they are smartly still masking and avoiding crowds.
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If you're not vaccinated now, you're being an asshole. If you want to risk your own life because you're too lazy or too stupid to get vaccinated, that's on you. If you're vaccinated and want to stay away from everyone indefintely, don't be surprised when no one ever wants to hang out with you again.
Or, and hear me out, you have anaphylaxis to vaccines, are under age 16, don’t respond to the vaccine (well less than half of those with a solid organ transplant respond, for example), etc.
No doubt. And all these assholes are making life difficult for that miniscule perccentage of the population. Either way, everyone else is going to unmask, move on, and start living life like they did before. And it's going to happen rapidly over the next month or so.