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Thread: COVID Thread 2: Operation Ludicrous Speed ! (Super Political!!!)

  1. #2121

  2. #2122
    Whereís the Atlantic poster, time to discuss how progressives really are pussies and refuse to come out of hiding.

  3. #2123
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    School Reopenings, Mobility, and COVID-19 Spread: Evidence from Texas

    This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school reopenings led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and 800 additional fatalities within the first two months. We then use SafeGraph mobility data to provide evidence that spillovers to adultsí behaviors contributed to these large effects. Median time spent outside the home on a typical weekday increased substantially in neighborhoods with large numbers of school-age children, suggesting a return to in-person work or increased outside-of-home leisure activities among parents.

    https://www.nber.org/papers/w28753
    We find that school reopenings in Texas gradually but substantially increased the per capita numbers of new weekly COVID-19 cases and deaths. To illustrate, 95 percent confidence intervals from the baseline regression imply that school reopenings across Texas led to at least 43,000 additional COVID-19 cases and at least 800 additional fatalities after two months. These magnitudes represent 12 percent and 17 percent, respectively, of the total numbers of cases and deaths in the state during that period.

  4. #2124
    I disagree with you
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louis Gossett Jr View Post
    Whereís the Atlantic poster, time to discuss how progressives really are pussies and refuse to come out of hiding.
    yeah i read that article - i definitely have friends that are squarely in that camp.

  5. #2125
    Yeah, I got into an argument with my best friend when he implied "I'm not ready to be indoors with people yet"

  6. #2126
    Quote Originally Posted by stugotz View Post
    Yeah, I got into an argument with my best friend when he implied "I'm not ready to be indoors with people yet"

    not sure why that would have lead to an argument...it doesn't really seem like any of your fucking business.
    8645

  7. #2127
    cause we're both fully vaccinated and I don't want to spend the rest of my life scared of a virus

  8. #2128
    Quote Originally Posted by stugotz View Post
    cause we're both fully vaccinated and I don't want to spend the rest of my life scared of a virus
    We still have 40,000 cases per day and about 700 deaths per day. The case numbers are improving quickly, so we'll be in a much better place soon. Can you not visit your friend outside? Well over half a million US citizens have died from COVID - someone exercising extra caution seems reasonable.

  9. #2129
    Quote Originally Posted by Rafi View Post
    We still have 40,000 cases per day and about 700 deaths per day. The case numbers are improving quickly, so we'll be in a much better place soon. Can you not visit your friend outside? Well over half a million US citizens have died from COVID - someone exercising extra caution seems reasonable.
    We live in the state with the least amount of coronavirus in the country ... and again, are both fully vaccinated. There's caution and being scared of your own shadow.

  10. #2130
    Some COVID thoughts...

    The numbers from Israel look fantastic. The have gone from 12,000 cases per day to 8 cases yesterday, and deaths from 80 per day to 1 or 0 per day.

    The Seychelles story is interesting. They locked down, had essentially no cases, vaccinated 60% of their population (mostly with Sinopharm from China), opened up (including to tourists) and had a huge spike in cases, and then locked down and it appears cases have drastically reduced again (though it's not clear to me how often they report data). This is just one more piece of info that shows how effective social distancing is.

    I assume the conspiracy theorists that were touting Ivermectin a month ago have moved on to something else? One of their arguments was that India was using it and that's why their numbers were so low. Well, unfortunately that is no longer the case in India.

  11. #2131
    Quote Originally Posted by stugotz View Post
    We live in the state with the least amount of coronavirus in the country ... and again, are both fully vaccinated. There's caution and being scared of your own shadow.
    I don't know about your friend, but for a lot of people they aren't worried as much about themselves getting COVID (because they are young and healthy) but they are worried about spreading it. There are a lot of people that cannot be vaccinated or the vaccine won't work (many of those on significant immunosuppression), and they don't want to spread it to those people. Thousands of break through COVID cases have occurred in vaccinated individuals, and those people can spread the virus. I think the numbers will drop quickly in the next few weeks - until then, just hang out outside with him.

  12. #2132
    Quote Originally Posted by Rafi View Post
    Some COVID thoughts...

    The numbers from Israel look fantastic. The have gone from 12,000 cases per day to 8 cases yesterday, and deaths from 80 per day to 1 or 0 per day.

    The Seychelles story is interesting. They locked down, had essentially no cases, vaccinated 60% of their population (mostly with Sinopharm from China), opened up (including to tourists) and had a huge spike in cases, and then locked down and it appears cases have drastically reduced again (though it's not clear to me how often they report data). This is just one more piece of info that shows how effective social distancing is.

    I assume the conspiracy theorists that were touting Ivermectin a month ago have moved on to something else? One of their arguments was that India was using it and that's why their numbers were so low. Well, unfortunately that is no longer the case in India.
    in the Seychelles example, per the bloomberg article, as of the 8th of May none of the people who got vaccinated and got COVID had died. So it also seems the vaccine is doing what it's supposed to do.

  13. #2133
    Quote Originally Posted by Rafi View Post
    I don't know about your friend, but for a lot of people they aren't worried as much about themselves getting COVID (because they are young and healthy) but they are worried about spreading it. There are a lot of people that cannot be vaccinated or the vaccine won't work (many of those on significant immunosuppression), and they don't want to spread it to those people. Thousands of break through COVID cases have occurred in vaccinated individuals, and those people can spread the virus. I think the numbers will drop quickly in the next few weeks - until then, just hang out outside with him.
    he's young and healthy and worried about himself. He and his wife are both stay at home authors and their families are on the east coast. It's exactly the type of anxiety that is unnecessary.

  14. #2134
    If they are both vaccinated there is no reason they can't meet inside.

  15. #2135
    Quote Originally Posted by Liquid Karma View Post
    If they are both vaccinated there is no reason they can't meet inside.
    Millions of people have died. People are going to ease back into life at different speeds, which seems totally reasonable to me. Getting into a fight over it seems quite unnecessary.

  16. #2136
    Quote Originally Posted by stugotz View Post
    in the Seychelles example, per the bloomberg article, as of the 8th of May none of the people who got vaccinated and got COVID had died. So it also seems the vaccine is doing what it's supposed to do.
    I think there have only been 8 total deaths since the new surge, so itís small absolute numbers in the Seychelles, in general. And deaths lag cases by 2-3 weeks. And, there are some outcomes that can be pretty awful that arenít death (Iíve seen many patients that now require life long dialysis after Covid, as just one example). But hopefully it is correct that the vaccines are preventing death and severe cases.

  17. #2137
    The problem is trying to justify apprehension with some bullshit here and some bullshit there. If itís time to follow the science, the science says that once you are vaccinated your risk of being infected is incredibly low, if you do get infected your outcome will be very favorable, and itís extremely unlikely you can or will transmit the virus to others. So after vaccination sure itís a personal decision but itís not rationale and more of a psychological thing. The messaging has been complete shit because once all of that was known it shouldnít be mask up, donít eat indoors, etcÖ it should have been if you get vaccinated enjoy bacchanalia!

  18. #2138

    COVID Thread 2: Operation Ludicrous Speed ! (Super Political!!!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Louis Gossett Jr View Post
    The problem is trying to justify apprehension with some bullshit here and some bullshit there. If itís time to follow the science, the science says that once you are vaccinated your risk of being infected is incredibly low, if you do get infected your outcome will be very favorable, and itís extremely unlikely you can or will transmit the virus to others. So after vaccination sure itís a personal decision but itís not rationale and more of a psychological thing. The messaging has been complete shit because once all of that was known it shouldnít be mask up, donít eat indoors, etcÖ it should have been if you get vaccinated enjoy bacchanalia!
    Eh, Iím just not sure about that. That approach would lead to more vaccinated people dying (which has already happened, despite continued precautions), which could undermine vaccines further, even though it would be a tiny percent of people.

    I just donít think there needs to be an all or none approach, and itís ok to ease back into things. Iíve seen many older and/or immunocompromised patients that did not develop antibodies after vaccination, and they are smartly still masking and avoiding crowds.
    Last edited by Rafi; Yesterday at 08:11 PM.

  19. #2139
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    If you're not vaccinated now, you're being an asshole. If you want to risk your own life because you're too lazy or too stupid to get vaccinated, that's on you. If you're vaccinated and want to stay away from everyone indefintely, don't be surprised when no one ever wants to hang out with you again.

  20. #2140
    Quote Originally Posted by BiffTannen View Post
    If you're not vaccinated now, you're being an asshole.
    Or, and hear me out, you have anaphylaxis to vaccines, are under age 16, donít respond to the vaccine (well less than half of those with a solid organ transplant respond, for example), etc.

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