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anyone laying bets on the Division Series?

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centerdeac

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Houston v. A's

NYY v. Tampa

Mighty Dodgers v. Slam Diego

Braves v. Marlins????
 
A's in 4 and all baseball fans rejoicing
Rays in 5 in a really chippy series
Dodgers in 5 entertaining games with Kershaw finally coming through in the DS
Marlins in 4 with Braves pitchers struggling
 
NJDeac’22 said:
A's in 4 and all baseball fans rejoicing
Rays in 5 in a really chippy series
Dodgers in 5 entertaining games with Kershaw finally coming through in the DS
Marlins in 4 with Braves pitchers struggling
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You mean the Braves pitchers that have yet to give up a run? Certainly possible, but odd timing for such a prediction.
 
Series odds:

NYY: -130
TB: +120

TB won 8 of 10 during the season, including winning 2 of Cole's 3 starts

A's: -135
Stros: +115

A's won 6 of 10, A's held the Astros to 2 runs or less in 7 of the 10 head to head games.

Dodgers: -285
Padres: +225

Dodgers won 6 of 10

Braves: -365
Marlins + 315

Braves won 6 of 10, including a 29-9 blowout in September

Would like the Padres if Lamet and Clevinger were healthy, but while both may try to pitch, their health is a big concern. A Braves/Dodgers NLCS seems inevitable.

A's are missing their best player in 3B Matt Chapman. The world is rooting against the Astros.

Rays need to beat Cole at least once to win the series; they beat him twice during the year.
 
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I like the return on the Marlins. I also like the fact they have never lost a playoff series. If they win the odds go up and I'm playing with house money.
 
tigerswood said:
You mean the Braves pitchers that have yet to give up a run? Certainly possible, but odd timing for such a prediction.
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Only 2 games without giving up a run, and the big difference this year is the lack of regular rest days in the DS. They'll be forced to go deeper into the rotation and bullpen than in a typical playoff series. The Marlins have some young pitching they should be able to stretch a little bit more, and all the pressure is on Atlanta. Obviously Atlanta is the favorite but I have to pick at least one upset and I'm a Mets fan so I wouldn't mind watching the Braves lose.
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Only 2 games without giving up a run, and the big difference this year is the lack of regular rest days in the DS. They'll be forced to go deeper into the rotation and bullpen than in a typical playoff series. The Marlins have some young pitching they should be able to stretch a little bit more, and all the pressure is on Atlanta. Obviously Atlanta is the favorite but I have to pick at least one upset and I'm a Mets fan so I wouldn't mind watching the Braves lose.
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According to Fangraphs ZiPS projections the Braves are by far the heaviest favorite of the 4. According to ZiPS:

Braves 76.8% odds to win series, Dodgers 64.1%, Rays 57.7%, and A's 54.5%.

Fangraphs has put up pretty good series previews on all 4, here is the one on Braves-Marlins: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nl-division-series-preview-miami-marlins-vs-atlanta-braves/
 
I'm obviously biased towards the Braves, but I'm not sure how to look at this series and pick the Marlins. The Braves have clearly better hitting and bullpen depth, and the SP comparison is:

Fried - Sanchez
Anderson - Alcantara
Wright - Lopez
Wilson - Castano

I'm not even sure the Marlins have an edge there. I'd take Braves top two over the Marlins for sure, and after that things get dicey with Lopez the best of the bunch.
 
deacon14 said:
I'm obviously biased towards the Braves, but I'm not sure how to look at this series and pick the Marlins. The Braves have clearly better hitting and bullpen depth, and the SP comparison is:

Fried - Sanchez
Anderson - Alcantara
Wright - Lopez
Wilson - Castano

I'm not even sure the Marlins have an edge there. I'd take Braves top two over the Marlins for sure, and after that things get dicey with Lopez the best of the bunch.
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Agree, but that's why they play the games. Most people thought the Cubs had a clear edge over the Marlins. Going into the season, everyone thought that the Nats, Phillies and Mets had a huge edge on the Marlins. On top of that the Marlins lost 17 players for a good chunk of the season to COVID. By any reasonable metric, their season should be over.

While you would think that the clock will strike twelve on the Cinderella Marlins, in baseball, any MLB team can win a short series. First one to win three over five straight days.
 
Yeah I agree with that, but the Braves also had a clearly better year than the Cubs, so it’s less surprising that the Marlins beat the Cubs than it would be if they beat the Braves.

I’m by no means trying to guarantee a Braves series W, just saying if you’re trying to only pick one upset of the 4 this probably isn’t the best one to pick.
 
A's over Houston in 5 (I had completely forgotten this series was going on - I had to run in to NYC and was sitting on the train and ESPN was only talking about football).
Yankees over Tampa in 5 (healthy Yankees lineup helps here and the fact that the Rays don't have what would be one of the best home field advantages in an empty park in dealing with all the quirks the Trop has)
LA over Slam Diego in 4. I might bump this up if Clevenger gets to pitch.
Braves over Marlins in 5. I don't know...I've been watching the Marlins a lot lately (they played my Yanks in their last regular season series) and I like what I saw - they play like an old school team - a lot of hit and run, moving base to base, stealing bags...it was refreshing to see in an era of waiting on the three run homer. I'll definitely be pulling for them in this series.
 
Houston is a vampire. They aren't dead until you stake them through the heart.

Yankees/Rays is going 5 now.
 
centerdeac said:
Houston is a vampire. They aren't dead until you stake them through the heart.

Yankees/Rays is going 5 now.
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Deivi Garcia taking the bump for the Yankees tomorrow against Glasnow. Rays have yet to see him. Yankees have seen Glasnow three times this year - they hammered him in the first game, was pretty effective in the second game and dominated the third game. Yankees had close to the full Death Star in the first game, a weak lineup in the second game (no Judge, Stanton, LeMahieu and Mike Ford at DH) and no Judge/Stanton/Torres in the third game.
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Only 2 games without giving up a run, and the big difference this year is the lack of regular rest days in the DS. They'll be forced to go deeper into the rotation and bullpen than in a typical playoff series. The Marlins have some young pitching they should be able to stretch a little bit more, and all the pressure is on Atlanta.
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If it was a 7 game series I would agree with you 100%. With it being 5, I like the Braves chances even with their rotation issues.

I do think Braves need to take care of business in games 1 and 2.
 
I was looking to go against Houston because I hate them in either the WC round or the ALDS, but I looked at their lineup heading into the playoffs, and other than Yordany Alvarez, they have everyone back from the team that dominated from 2017-9. While Alvarez is a big loss, Kyle Tucker has stepped up and been a solid replacement.

This is a deep and experienced lineup:

Springer
Altuve
Brantley
Bregman
Tucker
Correa
Reddick
Maldonado



Obviously, the loss of Cole and Verlander is massive and explains why (along with injuries and no intel on the incoming pitch) the Cheating Stros struggled to reach .500 during the regular season. That said, the Astros starting pitching with Greinke, McCullers, Framber Valdex, Jose Urquidy and Christian Javier is as deep as any of the teams left; so, with the ALDS being played 5 days in a row; they are as well suited as anyone to make a run.
 
Pilchard said:
I was looking to go against Houston because I hate them in either the WC round or the ALDS, but I looked at their lineup heading into the playoffs, and other than Yordany Alvarez, they have everyone back from the team that dominated from 2017-9. While Alvarez is a big loss, Kyle Tucker has stepped up and been a solid replacement.

This is a deep and experienced lineup:

Springer
Altuve
Brantley
Bregman
Tucker
Correa
Reddick
Maldonado



Obviously, the loss of Cole and Verlander is massive and explains why (along with injuries and no intel on the incoming pitch) the Cheating Stros struggled to reach .500 during the regular season. That said, the Astros starting pitching with Greinke, McCullers, Framber Valdex, Jose Urquidy and Christian Javier is as deep as any of the teams left; so, with the ALDS being played 5 days in a row; they are as well suited as anyone to make a run.
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A lot of the Astros offense was pretty slow this season compared to a normal 162, which I think also hurt them. Astros have also had the toughest travel schedule:

Astros: 17,669 miles flown
A's: 12,760
Yankees: 7,504
Rays: 12,770

Dodgers: 11,471
Padres: 11,479
Braves: 8,610
Marlins: 11,132
 
Typically bad managed game by Boone.
Pulling the kid for Happ after one inning has to be one of the dumbest baseball moves I’ve ever seen.
 
DeacsPop said:
Typically bad managed game by Boone.
Pulling the kid for Happ after one inning has to be one of the dumbest baseball moves I’ve ever seen.
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Disagree - think it was all done by design and made sense to me. Happ has had a hot hand over the past month. Put Deivi in there to get an inning but the Rays don't know that - they go ahead and put five lefties in their lineup. Boone figures this and knows Happ is coming in for the 2nd, so in theory its advantage Happ.

I actually didn't mind the move outside the strategy. Deivi didn't have his fastball going again tonight. Reminded me a lot of the start against Boston (where he was on the bump owned by his idol). Think he got a little too nervous/excited and didn't look as sharp.
 
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