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WF @ UNCCH Nov. 14, 2020

zqglass said:
Yet UNC is showing as a 13.5 pt favorite on ESPN right now...
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If I’m not mistaken, we have significantly beat the spread in every game this year, with the exception of the State game.
Several games that we were picked to lose, we won.
Other games, where we were picked to win, we won by a much larger margin than the spread.
Even with Clemson, we lost by much less than the spread.
Summary - Wake continues to be underestimated. Hopefully a win this Saturday will change a few minds.
 
Dekin said:
If I’m not mistaken, we have significantly beat the spread in every game this year, with the exception of the State game.
Several games that we were picked to lose, we won.
Other games, where we were picked to win, we won by a much larger margin than the spread.
Even with Clemson, we lost by much less than the spread.
Summary - Wake continues to be underestimated. Hopefully a win this Saturday will change a few minds.
Click to expand...

Its mid November. Time to be ranked. Way past time to be ranked. Rankings matter! Signing day is coming soon.
 
Dekin said:
If I’m not mistaken, we have significantly beat the spread in every game this year, with the exception of the State game.
Several games that we were picked to lose, we won.
Other games, where we were picked to win, we won by a much larger margin than the spread.
Even with Clemson, we lost by much less than the spread.
Summary - Wake continues to be underestimated. Hopefully a win this Saturday will change a few minds.
Click to expand...

First impressions matter. Wake is still being judged by the first two games. The next four are seen as an anomaly.
 
UNC is a dangerous opponent. When they get it rolling, they can light up the scoreboard. Clawson know this. In a recent presser, he talked about how he uses tempo. He said that when he first came to WF, the defense was miles ahead of the offense. So, they played as slow a tempo as possible (see, the 6-3 win over VT). Then, for a period, the offense was ahead of the defense; so, the strategy was to maximize the number of possessions and try to win shootouts (see the 63-43 win over Cuse). Now, he feels like there is a balance to the offense and defense; so, WF can play up tempo or slow it down. This is a game where it makes sense to grind it out. Keep UNC's defense on the field.

BTW, UNC has some injury issues. Against Duke, all 4 of the their starting DBs from the opener were out (1 was kicked off the team; three are hurt). It didn't matter because UNC scored TDs on EVERY possession in the first half (Deacs have to avoid letting the game get away). They may get one or two injured players back, but their secondary has some holes. Also, starting receiver Beau Corrales is out Their starting center may be out too. Also, the Heels are in a look ahead spot as their next game (after a bye) is Notre Dame.

UNC has special team issues, they turn it over more than WF and they have struggled in close games. Deacs just need to stay with a score until the 2nd half, keep the UNC offense from exploding (which is possible against anyone, they are a top 5 offense, by essentially every college football metric), and I like the Deacs chances in a close one,
 
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Pilchard said:
UNC is a dangerous opponent. When they get it rolling, they can light up the scoreboard. Clawson know this. In a recent presser, he talked about how he uses tempo. He said that when he first came to WF, the defense was miles ahead of the offense. So, they played as slow a tempo as possible (see, the 6-3 win over VT). Then, for a period, the offense was ahead of the defense; so, the strategy was to maximize the number of possessions and try to win shootouts (see the 63-43 win over Cuse). Now, he feels like there is a balance to the offense and defense; so, WF can play up tempo or slow it down. This is a game where it makes sense to grind it out. Keep UNC's defense on the field.

BTW, UNC has some injury issues. Against Duke, all 4 of the their starting DBs from the opener were out (1 was kicked off the team; three are hurt). It didn't matter because UNC scored TDs on EVERY possession in the first half (Deacs have to avoid letting the game get away). They may get one or two injured players back, but their secondary has some holes. Also, starting receiver Beau Corrales is out Their starting center may be out too. Also, the Heels are in a look ahead spot as their next game (after a bye) is Notre Dame.

UNC has special team issues, they turn it over more than WF and they have struggled in close games. Deacs just need to stay with a score until the 2nd half, keep the UNC offense from exploding (which is possible against anyone, they are a top 5 offense, by essentially every college football metric), and I like the Deacs chances in a close one,
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If the Notre Dame were next week, I'd say it could be a look ahead spot, but the a bye week in between I don't think that will be a factor.
 
skinnydeac said:
First impressions matter. Wake is still being judged by the first two games. The next four are seen as an anomaly.
Click to expand...

And UNC is judged by beating Cuse and BC?

This is a game between two teams without a quality win but only one team has two bad losses. And that team is a 2 TD favorite.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Holy cow wake is up to 13th in the Sagarin ratings
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Maybe numbers/doof can speak to this, does that we've played more games than other teams positively affect our Sagarin ratings? Was curious if that might be why we're ahead of some P12 or B1G (a la Indiana) teams.

Obviously the oddsmakers aren't buying into these numbers since Sagarin suggests the line should be a lot closer than UNC by ~two touchdowns
 
PhDeac said:
And UNC is judged by beating Cuse and BC?

This is a game between two teams without a quality win but only one team has two bad losses. And that team is a 2 TD favorite.
Click to expand...

I mean, UNC has outperformed the Deacs against all common opponents

might want to cool it on the indignation around here
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
I mean, UNC has outperformed the Deacs against all common opponents

might want to cool it on the indignation around here
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UNC beat Cuse 31-6. We beat Cuse 38-14.
UNC beat VT 56-45. We beat VT 23-16.
UNC beat State 48-21. We lost to State 45-42.
UNC lost to UVa 44-41. We beat UVa 40-23.

I don't think that's 13.5 points of "outperformance." Those look like two evenly matched squads. Sagarin has UNC #10 and we are #13.
 
we also didn't have to play UVA's real QB

I think the Deacs are going to exceed the two tuddie line, but I also think people are cherry picking what they're looking at here
 
PhDeac said:
And UNC is judged by beating Cuse and BC?

This is a game between two teams without a quality win but only one team has two bad losses. And that team is a 2 TD favorite.
Click to expand...

I'm not saying it's fair. I just think the talking heads, oddsmakers, etc. are looking at it that way.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
we also didn't have to play UVA's real QB

I think the Deacs are going to exceed the two tuddie line, but I also think people are cherry picking what they're looking at here
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I don't think their real QB is worth 20 points.

What's your prediction?
 
if I had to bet, I'd bet on the Deacs losing by single digits

obvs hope I'm wrong
 
UNC is ranked ahead of WF right now because they were ranked ahead of WF in the preseason, and won their first three games to move up

I personally believe UNC should be favored in the game but the current line is too high - obviously I can choose to attempt to capitalize on this...
 
Pilchard said:
UNC is a dangerous opponent. When they get it rolling, they can light up the scoreboard. Clawson know this. In a recent presser, he talked about how he uses tempo. He said that when he first came to WF, the defense was miles ahead of the offense. So, they played as slow a tempo as possible (see, the 6-3 win over VT). Then, for a period, the offense was ahead of the defense; so, the strategy was to maximize the number of possessions and try to win shootouts (see the 63-43 win over Cuse). Now, he feels like there is a balance to the offense and defense; so, WF can play up tempo or slow it down. This is a game where it makes sense to grind it out. Keep UNC's defense on the field.

BTW, UNC has some injury issues. Against Duke, all 4 of the their starting DBs from the opener were out (1 was kicked off the team; three are hurt). It didn't matter because UNC scored TDs on EVERY possession in the first half (Deacs have to avoid letting the game get away). They may get one or two injured players back, but their secondary has some holes. Also, starting receiver Beau Corrales is out Their starting center may be out too. Also, the Heels are in a look ahead spot as their next game (after a bye) is Notre Dame.

UNC has special team issues, they turn it over more than WF and they have struggled in close games. Deacs just need to stay with a score until the 2nd half, keep the UNC offense from exploding (which is possible against anyone, they are a top 5 offense, by essentially every college football metric), and I like the Deacs chances in a close one,
Click to expand...

Think the DB injury issues aren't as big of a deal of the starting C. Our back-up C appears to be a walk-on, and his snaps have been quite iffy in his limited gametime this year. OL had been a strength, but if he is out, I'm concerned about the interior of the the line.

UNC has had a few games this year where the offense has been inconsistent. In the FSU loss, similar to the Wake-UNC game last year, Carolina's offense did next to nothing in the first half before finally moving the ball in the second half. They put themselves in too large of a hole, and the comeback ran out of time. If Wake can make UNC work for everything, that inconsistency might rear its head again. There have also been some struggles to score TDs in the red zone, so if Wake can make some defensive stands inside the 10, I like your chances. Our OC has had red zone issues throughout his career, and he often times tries to get too cute.

On D, the line is undersized and can't generate a ton of pressure on its own. We have struggled to guard TEs and other short routes across the middle. LBs (Surratt in particular) and the Safeties have tackled poorly at times. I'm a homer, but I'll predict a 34-27 UNC victory.
 
https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/unc/article247040982.html

https://www.tarheeltimes.com/article120070.aspx

Interesting story line off an ESPN graphic during a game comparing two QBs. As an aside, WF actually had a story that was not a mere graphic but a real story on NBC Nightly News which was worth reporting in the print media as well. But a sports television graphic generates more print media about that graphic? Neither the W-S Journal nor the Greensboro N&O would ever report on a television graphic comparing Sam HARTMAN to Tom Brady, Drew Brees or anyone. Not to take anything away from Sam Howell but the UNCCH marketing major must be the best in the U. S. Marketing at UNCCH is certainly unrivaled.
 
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The line definitely looks strange, but the play I've already made is over 26.5 for us. We'll have to lay an egg to not score 27.
 
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