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Final Presidential Election Predictions

Who Wins With How Many EVs

  • Total voters
    66
  • Poll closed .
cville deac said:
Agree about WI. And this is why AZ and Omaha are so key if Biden loses FL. AZ + Omaha likely get Biden to 270 sometime on Wednesday while PA is still busy counting for the next few days. Also why IA would be a nice pick-up in case Biden's lead in NV evaporated.

FWIW, Nate has AZ, FL, NC and GA with Biden slightly favored and Trump slightly favored in OH, TX and IA.
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Nate has Biden 65% winning NC and FL I thought.
 
I think this will be an epic beatdown high single digits and Cal will win NC.
 
It's really interesting how far apart 538 is from the PredictIt betting market. That includes individual states and the Electoral College total. Somethings not adding up.
 
Frosty said:
The Cunningham part is so frustrating. If he loses this we can sit here and blame the rubes, but this is 100% on him. It's astonishing how much he has fucked this up when he's running against an unpopular incumbent. To be clear, I voted for Cunningham and was never conflicted about it, but in a state like NC a big part of the game for statewide Dem candidates is not giving people any reason not to vote for you.

If yard signs are any indicator, Cal is in trouble. Durham is as blue as it gets in NC and Biden and Cooper signs definitely outnumber those of their opponents (talking about those that are actually on people's property, not the stupid Run, Forest, Run signs on the highways). Our Cal lawn sign is one of few I've seen around town.
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Yeah- I think Cunningham was up a solid 5-6 points internally prior to the affair. Just incredibly stupid.

Now the truth is that Tillis has his own issues with extramarital stuff, but it has never gone public.
 
PhDeac said:
Jill was in Charlotte Saturday. Kamala was in Goldsboro and Fayetteville yesterday. I know Joe was in Durham two weeks ago. Not sure if he’s been there more recently.

So how do you all think the increased voter turnout and youth vote will factor in? You all don’t see bullish about it.
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More voters favors Biden given -

He leads among women
He leads among college educated voters
He leads among seniors (incredibly)
He leads among African Americans and Latinos

Now I get that varies from state to state, but that's a tough base to count on for a massive turnout even if non-college educated white males represent 20% of the nation.
 
DeacMan said:
Nate has Biden 65% winning NC and FL I thought.
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Yeah, both are in the 60s. Nate calls any %s in the 50s or 60s "slightly favored". I find it interesting why 538 is apparently pretty bullish on FL, NC and GA and bearish on IA despite similar polling.
 
Predicit is a bunch of PTSD bettors throwing minimal money for sport.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Predicit is a bunch of PTSD bettors throwing minimal money for sport.
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Fair, though most worldwide markets are aligning with the PredictIt values much more than 538.

Bovada for example has Biden -185 (65% implied probability)
 
Trumpf gonna' lose bigly.... but from his certain point of view he's WINNING! Facepalm
 
DeacMan said:
More voters favors Biden given -

He leads among women
He leads among college educated voters
He leads among seniors (incredibly)
He leads among African Americans and Latinos

Now I get that varies from state to state, but that's a tough base to count on for a massive turnout even if non-college educated white males represent 20% of the nation.
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And he has young voters by a large margin and they're showing up.
 
DCDeac said:
The real question - what time will Trump declare victory and demand a concession from Biden? Before or after midnight?
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I'm going with before midnight. His twitter feed is going to be something else tomorrow.
 
PhDeac said:
And he has young voters by a large margin and they're showing up.
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Yes. And that could be immense too. NVM that it is believed a sizable chuck of GOP voters will vote for Biden - maybe 10-13%. Let's call it 8%. Yet another hurdle for Trump to overcome.

It all adds up. I'll add that I keep reading articles about the Trump strongholds and there are often quotes about how Biden will do better than Clinton. That all means Trump has to get insane turnout IMO. Just don't see how it works with 98M votes already cast.

100M before election day. Maybe 60M the date of the election. Soul crushing for Trump to look at that math.
 
xOoQX


Anecdotally, I know two people in NC who changed their votes from Trump to Neither, so I'm holding out hope for NC. Random prediction: MT eventually breaks for Trump, but is too close to call election night.

EDIT: Didn't mean to turn ND blue-not sure how that happened.
 
Last edited:
With those kind of numbers, Trump could get 5M+ more votes than 2016 and still lose by a considerable margin.
 
I think if Biden wins by a couple points he can pull Cal to the finish line. But your right i don’t see Cal shit anywhere.

If he loses he’s gonna end up in the John Edwards HOF. He could literally lose the senate and fuck up a once in a generation chance to fix voters rights, healthcare and Supreme Court and basically change the course of US history all over some mid-election strange. What an asshole.

Frosty said:
The Cunningham part is so frustrating. If he loses this we can sit here and blame the rubes, but this is 100% on him. It's astonishing how much he has fucked this up when he's running against an unpopular incumbent. To be clear, I voted for Cunningham and was never conflicted about it, but in a state like NC a big part of the game for statewide Dem candidates is not giving people any reason not to vote for you.

If yard signs are any indicator, Cal is in trouble. Durham is as blue as it gets in NC and Biden and Cooper signs definitely outnumber those of their opponents (talking about those that are actually on people's property, not the stupid Run, Forest, Run signs on the highways). Our Cal lawn sign is one of few I've seen around town.
Click to expand...
 
To add: and to lose to fucking Tillis of all people. We have two of the most limp-dick establishment grifters for senators. I was no Helms fan (at all) but i think he actually pretended to give a shit about NC (in his own racist way).
 
Screamindemon3 said:
It's really interesting how far apart 538 is from the PredictIt betting market. That includes individual states and the Electoral College total. Somethings not adding up.
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i mean, on one the market is dictated by the movement of capital; the other relies on a model designed by statisticians

PI isn't really trying to "get it right" imo - it's just where the money is
 
I think Biden wins Mich, Wisc, PA, Ariz, and NC (Cal loses). Joe gets about 300 EVs.
 
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