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Final Presidential Election Predictions

Who Wins With How Many EVs

  • Total voters
    66
  • Poll closed .
296 Biden
242 Trump

Biden wins rust belt battleground states along with AZ, CO and NV
Trump wins the sun belt battleground states along with Ohio

EDIT: forgot to include Ohio for Trump originally.
 
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i'm going mini-landslide. Joe gets WI, MI, MN, PA, AZ. Wins 1-2 of FL, GA and NC too. couple may get contested but it won't matter (similar to '16). other predictions so i can self-own on Wednesday morning:

- Roy wins easily.
- Cunningham/Tillis end up in court (memo to aspiring politicians out there - please keep you dick securely fastened while in the middle of a fucking election)
- senate is messy, waiting on GA. Collins out, Lindsay hangs on barely, Ernst/Greenfield TCTC end up in court
- i really hope that shitheel Cawthorn gets rolled - we'll see. lots of rubes in the mountains.
 
I have him losing FL, TX, GA, NC, OH, and AZ, but winning all the Midwest states and PA -- gets him somewhere around 280. I think it will be nightmarishly close. Hope I am wrong.
 
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lol i made this thread like two weeks ago but am curious to see if it shifts.
 
Yeah, I just wrote on the other thread that the tightening polls in AZ, FL and NC scare me. If PA gets honestly counted, I'm thinking Biden gets 305-6, or maybe IA for 311-12. I'm not feeling good about FL, GA or OH.
 
It should be a 534 to 4 Biden victory, with the 4 against being faithless electors writing in votes for Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pele, and Deez Nutz. But it will be a ~290 range Biden win.
 
I have Biden surpassing 300, but not by much.
 
Usually you can say the outcome of an election who knows what the next 4 years will look like but there are a lot of things riding on tomorrow with most occurring within the next year. The obvious is the pandemic, a Trump victory means we are all in for herd immunity and the death count will just rise and rise. I don't really know what Biden can do since its pretty much too late but I know at least it will be more than do nothing. Also in that timeframe is distribution of a vaccine that nobody is going to trust if Trump is still around. Relief bills that will be stripped down because Trump doesn't care since he doesnt need to be elected. That's all just pandemic related. In addition you have things like pulling out of Paris climate agreement becomes official, pulling out of the WHO becomes official, ACA dead, etc... I predict a 280-300 Biden win but man does this country need a 400+ Biden win.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Usually you can say the outcome of an election who knows what the next 4 years will look like but there are a lot of things riding on tomorrow with most occurring within the next year. The obvious is the pandemic, a Trump victory means we are all in for herd immunity and the death count will just rise and rise. I don't really know what Biden can do since its pretty much too late but I know at least it will be more than do nothing. Also in that timeframe is distribution of a vaccine that nobody is going to trust if Trump is still around. Relief bills that will be stripped down because Trump doesn't care since he doesnt need to be elected. That's all just pandemic related. In addition you have things like pulling out of Paris climate agreement becomes official, pulling out of the WHO becomes official, ACA dead, etc... I predict a 280-300 Biden win but man does this country need a 400+ Biden win.
Click to expand...

Yes, the country needs a 400+ Biden win, and we're not going to get that. The Pub party also needs a 400+ Biden win if they want to widen the Base, and they're not getting that either. 2024 will be a repeat of 2020. But hopefully without the rona.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Usually you can say the outcome of an election who knows what the next 4 years will look like but there are a lot of things riding on tomorrow with most occurring within the next year. The obvious is the pandemic, a Trump victory means we are all in for herd immunity and the death count will just rise and rise. I don't really know what Biden can do since its pretty much too late but I know at least it will be more than do nothing. Also in that timeframe is distribution of a vaccine that nobody is going to trust if Trump is still around. Relief bills that will be stripped down because Trump doesn't care since he doesnt need to be elected. That's all just pandemic related. In addition you have things like pulling out of Paris climate agreement becomes official, pulling out of the WHO becomes official, ACA dead, etc... I predict a 280-300 Biden win but man does this country need a 400+ Biden win.
Click to expand...

Trump isn't going to care about a vaccine if he gets re-elected. It will happen eventually, but it will not be a priority from the government.
 
I have Dump winning Fl, Tx, Ga, Oh and Az but losing Pa, Wisc, NC & Mi. Should be in the 290+ range but yes, no doubt closer than one would have expected.
If Pa. swings the other way, it'll be razor thin.

Senate finishes (eventually) deadlocked at 50-50 with Harris being the new swing vote.
 
Based on current polling, I am confident that Biden gets to 278 EVs *in the absence of republican fuckery* by holding all the Hillary states and winning back MI, WI, and PA. I'd expect that he wins those back due to regression to the mean alone. They'll drag out PA of course, but I don't think the outcome will be significantly in doubt.

I am fairly confident Biden wins NE-2 to bring him to 279. I'm not quite comfortable calling ME-2 for him, but think his chances are decent.

I am leaning toward him winning at least one of AZ, NC, or FL (in order of most-least confidence). I believe Florida is a true toss-up. They elected a republican governor and senator during a wave year which doesn't bode well, but the aggregate polling has consistently favored Biden. So who knows. I'm slightly more bullish on NC and AZ, but only slightly. But if any of these 3 are called for Biden by the end of the night, you can more than likely pop the champagne.

I think GA will be close but ultimately tilt toward Trump, maybe by 1-1.5%.

TX will be closer than in years past, but ultimately think Trump takes it by 2-4% (if not more).

I'm mildly worried about MN and NV. I would be surprised if Biden lost either, but don't think it's out of the realm of possibility.

I'm also mildly worried about an electoral college tie (nightmare scenario). Unlikely, but could happen by Biden losing PA, NE-2 and ME-2 but winning AZ, or splitting NE-2 and ME-2 but losing WI or MN, or NV and NH. I will breathe a huge sigh of relief if it's announced that ME-2 and NE-2 are both won by Biden. However, if the EV margin is 270-268, I will be shitting my pants over faithless electors.

Overall, I think 279 EVs for Biden is the most likely outcome. Close but somewhat comfortable, with up to 335 if things go better than expected. Hoping for a blowout of course, but I'm generally pessimistic.
 
Biden 334; Trump 204

Biden takes - ME (3), NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, NJ, DE, MD, VA, NC, FL, IL, MI, WI, MN, CO, NM, AZ, NV, CA, OR, WA, HI and NE (1)
Trump takes - AK, ID, UT, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE (4), KS, OK, TX, IA, MO, AR, LA, IN, OH, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA and SC
 
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I just hope he takes FL or OH or some combination of Trump-required swing states early enough so I can relax and go to bed without worrying to death about goddamn PA (sorry ITC)
 
I spoke with a friend who would know who indicated that the Dem's internal polling looks bad for NC, both for Biden and Cunningham.
 
Think Trump will be leading in PA as of Wednesday morning (with a lot of mail in ballots yet to be counted), and a couple of other states (or states like Maine within sub-electoral districts) still being too close to call or with votes yet to be counted by Wednesday; so, Trump may declare victory, but the election winner won't be known Tuesday night or even by the end of the day on Wednesday. By Friday, think it will look like Biden will win as he will eventually win PA, by a small margin, after all votes are counted, but the Trump campaign will not concede. Hope to be wrong, but think we are heading to a contested election, which won't be definitively decided for a while. Think its possible that we could be headed to another 2000 election scenario, with recounts going on for weeks and litigation between the campaigns.

FWIW, beyond depressing that our current President could conduct himself as he has over the past 4 years (and really for his entire adult life) and the race for re-election could be this close. Just when you think that he can't do or say something more self-serving or demonstrate any worse leadership qualities, Trump finds a way to out-do himself. Amazing how the people that blindly follow him refuse to see how Trump could care less about them as he cares for only himself. Further unbelievable how the Republican party has essentially gone all-in to suppress the vote and/or find ways to exclude counting of the votes that fellow Americans have cast. If there was ever a time for karma to play a role, this is it.

Biden will win the popular vote, by a significantly greater margin than Clinton in 2016.
 
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