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Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

stugotz said:
End of the day pretty much all of us were in the top 10% of our high schools and we're chatting amongst ourselves. The rest of the people we went to HS with don't like us all that much 20 years later.
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Yep. This is pretty much a lot of what is going on. Rural voters feel like they are looked down on and a lot of the Trump vote is an F up to the media and elites. Its basically the equivalent of internet trolls. Kinda sad but policy doesn't matter anymore, it's all about personal grievance and a fuck you to others.
 
BillBrasky said:
I will be doing all my Florida vacationing in Arizona moving forward
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Might want to give it an hour or 2 before making vacation plans. Most of southern battle states started with Biden lead with all early voting being reflected and then lead slowly dwindling as today’s votes start to come through which has been largely pubs. Wouldn’t be shocked to see same with Az given how so many battleground states are playing very similar to last election in their closeness.
 
BillBrasky said:
I hate to admit it but I flipped over to Fox News out of morbid curiosity and their election night coverage is far superior to MSNBC and CNN

They’re actually calling shit and not acting like 9 year olds

Probably just gonna stay here
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Their decision desk is led by a registered Democrat who graduated from Yale and basically has carte blanche to call races when he sees fit.
 
Bluegrass Deac said:
A lot of people openly bashing Trump for being an awful human being but then secretly voting for him because they don't want to pay more taxes.
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Yep, or they'll talk a big game about voting third party but when it's time to put pen to paper they're not voting for Biden and a black lady
 
Meanwhile, WTF is up with Michigan? Is that one of the states where they can't start counting mail ins until the polls close or something?
 
Americans are fucking stupid.

That is all
 
dcnelso said:
Yep. This is pretty much a lot of what is going on. Rural voters feel like they are looked down on and a lot of the Trump vote is an F up to the media and elites. Its basically the equivalent of internet trolls. Kinda sad but policy doesn't matter anymore, it's all about personal grievance and a fuck you to others.
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+1.
 
dcnelso said:
Yep. This is pretty much a lot of what is going on. Rural voters feel like they are looked down on and a lot of the Trump vote is an F up to the media and elites. Its basically the equivalent of internet trolls. Kinda sad but policy doesn't matter anymore, it's all about personal grievance and a fuck you to others.
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Definitely. Platform doesn't matter as long as they get to be as mean as possible and own the libs.
 
TenaciousKory said:
I'm trying to say it's a epistemological problem, not a data problem.

It's how we use polls to understand the world in ways that we really shouldn't.
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Yeah. I agree. From a research perspective, polling is a huge waste of energy and resources aimed to predict what is often a dichotomous choice at a specific time. Those resources could go toward substantive questions in order to figure out how to improve people's life outcomes.
 
Highland Deac said:
Yeah, if Biden loses (hell, even if he wins at this point) the credibility of people like Silver has taken a huge hit, and should. To be wrong once is acceptable, but to do it twice in a row isn't. If these guys are still around in 2024 anyone who hangs on their latest polls and predictions is a sucker, imo.
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To be fair, Silver isn’t the pollster, he is the predictive modeler using the results of the data collection and analysis of others to make predictions. It’s not his fault of the polling data are flawed.

Having said that I really question the value of an election predictive model. What are we or anybody supposed to do with that prediction. It seems like they add value to campaign management decisions about where to allocate effort and money, but how does a predictive model really inform the public and improve the voting decisions of individuals? There is a widely use saying from George Box “All models are wrong but some models are useful” and I am trying to think of how silver’s model is useful to anyone but super nerds and campaign managers.
 
NC BOE site only shows 72% of ballots reported in NC. CNN definitely using different numbers.
 
I mean if Biden wins he says 90% odds I was right, if Trump wins he will say 10% odds like randomly guessing a number 1-10 I was right, then pretend that he doesn’t make predictions and that 10-90 is still statistically probable. Which sure is correct but not when you are suppose to model the outcomes, those odds scientifically speaking are getting to where you are perfectly comfortable with your prediction. Like example something like 90-10 for the coronavirus vaccine would easily get approval.
 
dcnelso said:
Yep. This is pretty much a lot of what is going on. Rural voters feel like they are looked down on and a lot of the Trump vote is an F up to the media and elites. Its basically the equivalent of internet trolls. Kinda sad but policy doesn't matter anymore, it's all about personal grievance and a fuck you to others.
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Turns out the idea of defunding the police isn't that popular. who'da thunk it?
 
Nate Silver can say what he wants, but if Trump wins he’s done as a respected pundit/analyst
 
saltydeac said:
Might want to give it an hour or 2 before making vacation plans. Most of southern battle states started with Biden lead with all early voting being reflected and then lead slowly dwindling as today’s votes start to come through which has been largely pubs. Wouldn’t be shocked to see same with Az given how so many battleground states are playing very similar to last election in their closeness.
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AZ started at 70% reported though. Pundits started reporting battleground states numbers when only like 40% reported. Also AZ doesn't have nearly the rural population as other battleground states.
 
So I think I can forgive friends and family that I know voting for Trump in 2016, but if he wins again I'm going to have a really hard time justifying spending any significant amount of time with them going forward. In a way I blame them for a lot of my anxiety and stress during the Trump presidency. There's way too much cognitive dissonance this time around and I can't reconcile those two things in my head.
 
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