• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

Stock Markets suggesting Trump will win.
Betting Markets thinking Trump will win.
I still don’t see it.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
disagree in that I don’t think it’s a Nate Silver problem, but something deeper about how polls are conducted in modern America and why every poll that has been generally accurate for decades is no longer reliable
Click to expand...

like what - construction-wise?
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
disagree in that I don’t think it’s a Nate Silver problem, but something deeper about how polls are conducted in modern America and why every poll that has been generally accurate for decades is no longer reliable
Click to expand...

my pub cousin, who I mocked for being crazy at thinking Trump would win, said that the trump kids are getting beat up being trump kids. If you're a trumper, why would you say it in this climate out loud? I thought he was an idiot. Maybe he's right.
 
Henry Chinaski said:
So on the NC election site, there are 250 precincts outstanding and 100 of them are wake county, so....
Click to expand...

I think there was a "blue mirage" of mail in votes, and what is coming in now - even in the metros - is election-day voters with an R tilt. So I'm pretty much giving up on NC, I think the Trump margin is going to widen from here on out. Have started drinking, but not the good stuff.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
disagree in that I don’t think it’s a Nate Silver problem, but something deeper about how polls are conducted in modern America and why every poll that has been generally accurate for decades is no longer reliable
Click to expand...

Nate Silver's reputation is done. Not exactly his fault as he mainly took poll as the input. The problem is polling in this country is broken. There is no way to predict all the lost rural vote or how people now troll polls. Polls will have to start oversampling republicans as a hedge and increase the "N" sample size to help offset the error rate.
 
dcnelso said:
Nate Silver's reputation is done. Not exactly his fault as he mainly took poll as the input. The problem is polling in this country is broken. There is no way to predict all the lost rural vote or how people now troll polls. Polls will have to start oversampling republicans as a hedge and increase the "N" sample size to help offset the error rate.
Click to expand...

exactly

the problem isn’t the methodology used, it’s the inputs are flawed
 
here is some valuable information i wish i had read earlier in the night. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/2020-election-night-cheat-sheet/616969/

One important bit is to ignore PA, WI, and MI tonight as they are all just starting to count mail-ins. Therefore there is likely to be a "red mirage" of election day R voters tonight. Instead, the author suggests paying attention to Minnesota - which is currently trending heavy Biden. Hopefully that trend has some relevance to the rest of the Blue Wall.
 
Regardless of whether Biden ends up squeaking this out or not, the sheer fact that Trump can make it this close is as Deacman says a reckoning on the democratic party. Look at the population demographics, Pubs are having kids at a much much higher proportion than Dems. People in the country can afford it, people in the cities can't. If it's this close now, mayyyybe there's a slight decade shift to dems as more boomers die, but the long term trend is towards republican positions. Defund the police isn't going to happen. Ever.

If every time the police shoots someone a city get looted, most of the country is going to vote for whomever is more likely to make that stop.
 
Last edited:
Deacon923 said:
here is some valuable information i wish i had read earlier in the night. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/2020-election-night-cheat-sheet/616969/

One important bit is to ignore PA, WI, and MI tonight as they are all just starting to count mail-ins. Therefore there is likely to be a "red mirage" of election day R voters tonight. Instead, the author suggests paying attention to Minnesota - which is currently trending heavy Biden. Hopefully that trend has some relevance to the rest of the Blue Wall.
Click to expand...

That red mirage turns into a red win when SCOTUS starts throwing out mail-in votes.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
exactly

the problem isn’t the methodology used, it’s the inputs are flawed
Click to expand...

No reason to trust polls anymore until they prove in some future election that they have their models fixed. Anybody who hangs on what the polls or people like Silver say in 2024 are gullible at this point, imo.
 
Good night all.

Quit following results at 10:30.

Looks like we be makin’ ‘merikkka shitty again.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top