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Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

WFFaithful said:
Lolz. Trump wins it all. PA, MI, WI, NC. We're a country of selfish, shortsighted, gullible assholes.
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Sadly I agree...CBS just said that some Democratic politicians and consultants are privately telling them that the trends look good for Trump right now.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
A methodology that doesn’t collect the appropriate inputs is a bad methodology.
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The point about Silver is that he is using model inputs based on data that other people collected using flaw methodologies. Silver’s model may be perfect but the input data are biased somehow.
 
Really wish Ossoff had won. Think he has a bright future ahead.
 
Yeah, guys, it's over. Be thankful that most of you are at least relatively well off white dudes.
 
Again, how that data is disseminated and analyzed and talked about and used to support bad arguments is just as important as the methodology.
 
TenaciousKory said:
lol
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I mean that's what's happening now. It's not popular.

Trump is literally the worst human being on the planet, and he's got it this close. We're fucked when the Pubs send out the Tom Cotton's of the world.
 
Official Election Day Thread

JuiceCrewAllStar said:
disagree in that I don’t think it’s a Nate Silver problem, but something deeper about how polls are conducted in modern America and why every poll that has been generally accurate for decades is no longer reliable
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Or a problem with how elections are done. Again, look to the gutting of the Voting Rights Act.

Polls sample registered voters and likely voters. It can’t account for whose votes actually get counted.

Highland Deac said:
No reason to trust polls anymore until they prove in some future election that they have their models fixed. Anybody who hangs on what the polls or people like Silver say in 2024 are gullible at this point, imo.
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I guess. But the response to positive polls, trends, approval ratings for four years has been “don’t trust the polls.”

People may believe the polls but they weren’t organizing or voting like they assumed Biden was going to win.
 
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TenaciousKory said:
Again, how that data is disseminated and analyzed and talked about and used to support bad arguments is just as important as the methodology.
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Ok, I agree with this. It is similar to my point several posts ago about the value of any predictive model about election outcomes. Really the only people that need that stuff are campaign managers.
 
How much worse will the US’s COVID response get if Trump wins re-election? I guess just thousands and thousands and thousands more people will needlessly die because of this guy’s stupid ass ego. What a world.
 
have a good night plama enjoy your pinball machines
 
Honestly I think the biggest thing for me is the pandemic. I mentioned it before but roughly 1000 people a day are dying but around 50% of the country just shrugs their shoulders and says meh, just a complete disregard from reality because their leader tells them it’s not a big deal. Like I feel even people that are directly impacted, someone they know dies, just go well what can you do. It’s crazy town, just a complete disregard for something that’s factual because people smarter than you say it’s true. It’s not how a functioning society can work. Then throw in the things that those people do believe, deep state, Qanon, etc... and just no words
 
birdman said:
The point about Silver is that he is using model inputs based on data that other people collected using flaw methodologies. Silver’s model may be perfect but the input data are biased somehow.
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But Silver assigns weights to the polls. Clearly his methodology for doing that isn’t anywhere close to perfect.
 
One thing that's being missed, I think, is that the Democratic Party badly needs an organizational overhaul, and has for some time. Ph mentioned earlier that the FL Democratic Party is a mess, and so is the NC Democratic Party. The GOP has done a much better job of keeping their state parties in top shape and well-organized. The RNC is light-years ahead of the DNC, which from what I've read is a patronage-ridden, often dysfunctional mess consisting of Clinton and Obama holdovers with little control or direction over the state parties. While Bill Clinton and Obama both did well politically, the Democratic Party suffered devastating defeats while they were in office. Democrats need to start looking at politics from the grassroots up and focus on voting in every election cycle, not just presidential years. They did that in 2018 and it paid off, we'll see if they can keep it up in 2022.
 
Dems should blow up their primary system tomorrow. These last two elections should have been relative dunks and they missed them both. What an utter utter embarrassment.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Honestly I think the biggest thing for me is the pandemic. I mentioned it before but roughly 1000 people a day are dying but around 50% of the country just shrugs their shoulders and says meh, just a complete disregard from reality because their leader tells them it’s not a big deal. Like I feel even people that are directly impacted, someone they know dies, just go well what can you do. It’s crazy town, just a complete disregard for something that’s factual because people smarter than you say it’s true. It’s not how a functioning society can work. Then throw in the things that those people do believe, deep state, Qanon, etc... and just no words
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What's going on in Europe really does seem to support the let it rip theory, though. France has 50k cases a day with a 70 million population. Equivalent to 350k cases a day in the US.

Ultimately the coronavirus was always going to poll well with the let it rip theory cause less than 1% of people end up dying from it. It's been a political calculation from Trump all along. Can't say it's a bad one, from a political standpoint.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
But Silver assigns weights to the polls. Clearly his methodology for doing that isn’t anywhere close to perfect.
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If 9 out of 10 polls say Biden is up in FL, how can you blame Nate Silver for saying Biden has a 65% chance of winning FL? No weighting can fix that.
 
I.E. what's the point in being liberal and locking the economy down if you do so and you still end up like France?
 
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