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Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

DistrictDeacon said:
But Silver assigns weights to the polls. Clearly his methodology for doing that isn’t anywhere close to perfect.
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I didn’t mean to say it was perfect I meant that even if it was a perfect model it would still make bad predictions if the input data were flawed.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Honestly I think the biggest thing for me is the pandemic. I mentioned it before but roughly 1000 people a day are dying but around 50% of the country just shrugs their shoulders and says meh, just a complete disregard from reality because their leader tells them it’s not a big deal. Like I feel even people that are directly impacted, someone they know dies, just go well what can you do. It’s crazy town, just a complete disregard for something that’s factual because people smarter than you say it’s true. It’s not how a functioning society can work. Then throw in the things that those people do believe, deep state, Qanon, etc... and just no words
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This is basically it. People have just said "Meh" to covid. Don't care and are ready to move on damn the consequences. I feel like social media has made our country so much dumber and caused most of the problems we have now. People read shit online and believe it because someone they know shared it or everyone feels they are right about every issue and are only reinforced by a silo'd set of posts they see.
 
Hard to believe the number of Dems/Libs on this thread who appear to be throwing in the towel.
Way, way too early.
 
Haven’t heard anyone talk about it but I’m assuming this will be another popular vote win for Dems? What a country
 
mikedrum4prez said:
Dems should blow up their primary system tomorrow. These last two elections should have been relative dunks and they missed them both. What an utter utter embarrassment.
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What Democrat would have done better? You look at any other Democratic candidate and what could they have done or said that would have led all of these Trump voters to say "Gee, I think I'll switch to them?" I'm not a huge Biden fan by any stretch, but I just don't see any of these Trump voters voting for anyone else. They really do love the guy, and obviously turned out in droves to vote for him. I think they're nuts and Trump clearly is nuts, but that's where we are as a country right now.
 
Highland Deac said:
One thing that's being missed, I think, is that the Democratic Party badly needs an organizational overhaul, and has for some time. Ph mentioned earlier that the FL Democratic Party is a mess, and so is the NC Democratic Party. The GOP has done a much better job of keeping their state parties in top shape and well-organized. The RNC is light-years ahead of the DNC, which from what I've read is a patronage-ridden, often dysfunctional mess consisting of Clinton and Obama holdovers with little control or direction over the state parties. While Bill Clinton and Obama both did well politically, the Democratic Party suffered devastating defeats while they were in office. Democrats need to start looking at politics from the grassroots up and focus on voting in every election cycle, not just presidential years. They did that in 2018 and it paid off, we'll see if they can keep it up in 2022.
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You know what the GOP has done a good job of, keeping working people poor and uneducated, busting up unions, and making the ultra rich even richer. And then they capitalize on that my telling a bunch of uneducated people what they want to hear. That's why the GOP is winning. Don't fault the Dems for dealing in truth.
 
Official Election Day Thread

This shit isn’t close to over. PA, MI and WI are the opposite of what you saw tonight in the southern swing states. Mail in and early votes get counted last. Early Trump leads will diminish greatly.

On the prediction thread, I predicted 296 votes for Biden - that didn’t require NC, GA, FL, OH or TX

Buck up fuckers
 
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Highland Deac said:
What Democrat would have done better? You look at any other Democratic candidate and what could they have done or said that would have led all of these Trump voters to say "Gee, I think I'll switch to them?" I'm not a huge Biden fan by any stretch, but I just don't see any of these Trump voters voting for anyone else. They really do love the guy, and obviously turned out in droves to vote for him. I think they're nuts and Trump clearly is nuts, but that's where we are as a country right now.
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Exactly, there is no democrat that would do any better. This is all about Trump turning out a rural vote that is outsized anything before. Biden was about as middle of the road you could get to help flip a % of the suburbs. But in the southern states, Trump as driven out a rural vote that never voted before. No democrat would stop that.
 
MichDeac25 said:
You know what the GOP has done a good job of, keeping working people poor and uneducated, busting up unions, and making the ultra rich even richer. And then they capitalize on that my telling a bunch of uneducated people what they want to hear. That's why the GOP is winning. Don't fault the Dems for dealing in truth.
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I didn't say anything about the Dems dealing in truth, I'm talking about their party organization. And it needs work.
 
MN is huge for Biden now only bc Hennipen county is fully counted. Be glad Ramsey county is only at 2% right now and that Anoka and Carver counties are almost done and are close.

Biden went +7 in Hennepin, +7 in Anoka, looks like about +8 in Carver, +4 in Rice, +6 in Nicolett (and won it). He's generally doing a point or two better than Clinton in the few really rural counties that have reported all their votes in too. Pretty tall order for Trump to recover from those results. Biden is also +10 on Clinton up near Duluth.

Biden pulled in almost 100K more votes in Hennipen alone than Clinton did. And Ramsay will go big to Biden too, second biggest county.

Think they should call it.
 
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dcnelso said:
Exactly, there is no democrat that would do any better. This is all about Trump turning out a rural vote that is outsized anything before. Biden was about as middle of the road you could get to help flip a % of the suburbs. But in the southern states, Trump as driven out a rural vote that never voted before. No democrat would stop that.
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I like Mayor Pete. Always have. I think he'd have swayed a few percent. Obama won because he had a quality. Pete has that quality. No one else in the Dem Field did other than Bernie.
 
DeacsPop said:
Hard to believe the number of Dems/Libs on this thread who appear to be throwing in the towel.
Way, way too early.
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This thread has the cadence of the Syracuse game thread. Came in expecting a big win but still hurting from the upset in the last game. Slow start and lots of missed opportunities. Then things picked up in the second half.

MichDeac25 said:
You know what the GOP has done a good job of, keeping working people poor and uneducated, busting up unions, and making the ultra rich even richer. And then they capitalize on that my telling a bunch of uneducated people what they want to hear. That's why the GOP is winning. Don't fault the Dems for dealing in truth.
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Yep. Dems have to make up for decades of being caught with their pants down by focusing on ideas and policy over tactics and rhetoric. Pubs don’t even have policy and it’s working for them.
 
stugotz said:
I like Mayor Pete. Always have. I think he'd have swayed a few percent. Obama won because he had a quality. Pete has that quality. No one else in the Dem Field did other than Bernie.
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Might have lost some by being gay as well. Hard to say.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
If 9 out of 10 5-year olds told you that Santa Claus was real, should you be blamed if you said there was a 65% chance that was true?
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Wtf does this mean? Where should a predictive modeler get their input data from if not polls? Silver’s model may very well be really bad, but we can’t diagnose that until we fix the input data flaws.

But again, I still question the value of any predictive election model for any one but a very small political professional audience.
 
How's the Senate looking? I've been on CNN where it's not discussed.
 
PhDeac said:
This thread has the cadence of the Syracuse game thread. Came in expecting a big win but still hurting from the upset in the last game. Slow start and lots of missed opportunities. Then things picked up in the second half.



Yep. Dems have to make up for decades of being caught with their pants down by focusing on ideas and policy over tactics and rhetoric. Pubs don’t even have policy and it’s working for them.
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What’s the analogue of the 80-td TD+pick 7 combo?
 
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