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Thread: Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

  1. #81
    Also, early voting accounted for 95% of the total NC turnout in 2016

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by dcnelso View Post
    From some of the turnout numbers I'm seeing on twitter regarding Florida, it appears the republicans are having a huge turnout day and have wiped away the early voting lead democrats had. I'm starting to think Florida is going to go Trump which mostly likely means everything comes down to Penn. Seeing the R registration lead in Florida is now over what Trump won the state by in 2016.

    So Biden would start to need a decent % of R's to cross over and probably a 10 point lead in independents. I'm not sure what the Independent polling was for Florida. But as a Biden voter I'm getting nervous. Maybe I'm just too scarred from 2016.
    It's going to have to be a realllllly big turnout day. 94% of 2016 total voted early in FL and about 108,000 more registered Democrats in Florida voted early by mail or in person than registered Republicans
    Deport Martin Short

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by PhDeac View Post
    So the over/under for total votes cast is somewhere around 153M? That would be 14M more than 2016.
    I didn't know we even had that many illegal immigrants.

  4. #84
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    The real question is where are the FL votes that have been sent in coming from.

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by saltydeac View Post
    Interesting. Not sure how Davidson as a city leans, but clearly Meck is strong Dem. If that is reflective of Meck overall that would not seem to be good for Biden as they need to win big in Meck, wake and Buncombe to offset all the rural counties. Granted it could be because of all the mail-in and early voting depending on how that breaks down.

    Any rural county NC board members here to give a sense of voting lines???
    He's talking about Davidson County, not Davidson, NC. Probably not great for Cal Cunningham to have light turnout in his home county today though.
    Deport Martin Short

  6. #86
    Canít speak to the rural areas but early voting in NC has been crazy so it makes sense that the lines today are shorter than normal.

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by BirtherDeac View Post
    He's talking about Davidson County, not Davidson, NC. Probably not great for Cal Cunningham to have light turnout in his home county today though.
    Correct, more specifically, Wallburg NC.

  8. #88
    BTW, four precincts have extended voting by up to 45 minutes due to various issues, so no NC results will be announced until 8:15 tonight.
    Deport Martin Short

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by dcnelso View Post
    From some of the turnout numbers I'm seeing on twitter regarding Florida, it appears the republicans are having a huge turnout day and have wiped away the early voting lead democrats had. I'm starting to think Florida is going to go Trump which mostly likely means everything comes down to Penn. Seeing the R registration lead in Florida is now over what Trump won the state by in 2016.

    So Biden would start to need a decent % of R's to cross over and probably a 10 point lead in independents. I'm not sure what the Independent polling was for Florida. But as a Biden voter I'm getting nervous. Maybe I'm just too scarred from 2016.
    To be clear 68% of GOP registered voters in FL voted early. 67% of Dems. 52% of registered independents.

    There were about 9M votes case early out of about 14M registered voters. The amount of turnout either side can get today is "capped" bc you can't register on election day. So the current math hinges on where the new numbers were coming from today. For instance, did the panhandle open first?

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by BirtherDeac View Post
    He's talking about Davidson County, not Davidson, NC. Probably not great for Cal Cunningham to have light turnout in his home county today though.
    Late turnout is bad for Cal in general. He needs those banked very early votes.

  11. #91

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by BirtherDeac View Post
    He's talking about Davidson County, not Davidson, NC. Probably not great for Cal Cunningham to have light turnout in his home county today though.
    Davidson county went trump by 48% in 2016. Cal would be just fine with low turnout there

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by DeacMan View Post
    To be clear 68% of GOP registered voters in FL voted early. 67% of Dems. 52% of registered independents.

    There were about 9M votes case early out of about 14M registered voters. The amount of turnout either side can get today is "capped" bc you can't register on election day. So the current math hinges on where the new numbers were coming from today. For instance, did the panhandle open first?
    The panhandle is in the central time zone. It's population also pales in comparison to the rest of FL.
    Deport Martin Short

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by saltydeac View Post
    Interesting. Not sure how Davidson as a city leans, but clearly Meck is strong Dem. If that is reflective of Meck overall that would not seem to be good for Biden as they need to win big in Meck, wake and Buncombe to offset all the rural counties. Granted it could be because of all the mail-in and early voting depending on how that breaks down.

    Any rural county NC board members here to give a sense of voting lines???
    I actually think this is good for Biden. Republicans tend to favor voting on election day, whereas Dems are more likely to vote early/via mail. Essentially, Biden will be leading by some margin just based on early/mail-in voting and Trump needs in-person voting to close that gap. If turnout today is light he might not have enough votes to close the gap.

  15. #95
    Florida has been the only state Iíve seen where Bidenís projections have been falling vs Trumps.
    Draxx them sklounst

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by DeacMan View Post
    To be clear 68% of GOP registered voters in FL voted early. 67% of Dems. 52% of registered independents.

    There were about 9M votes case early out of about 14M registered voters. The amount of turnout either side can get today is "capped" bc you can't register on election day. So the current math hinges on where the new numbers were coming from today. For instance, did the panhandle open first?
    Looks like Republicans now have a 130,000 vote advantage based on party registration. as of 1:30pm (includes early vote totals too). Though there is 2.3Million non party affiliated votes, I don't know how those are split.

  17. #97
    indulge me my Chicago anecdotes, but interesting numbers here

    most notably, big young vote and turnout rate as of this morning was 58% -- mayoral election in 2019 (February in Chicago) was 35% turnout


  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhDeac View Post
    So the over/under for total votes cast is somewhere around 153M? That would be 14M more than 2016.
    What's the over/under for votes counted?

  19. #99
    Cal might've lost his home county (hell, the whole state) on the basis of his barbecue tweet alone

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by dcnelso View Post
    Looks like Republicans now have a 130,000 vote advantage based on party registration. as of 1:30pm (includes early vote totals too). Though there is 2.3Million non party affiliated votes, I don't know how those are split.
    link?

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