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Official Election Month Thread: COUP falls short, nothing to see here

So it's going to be well over 1 million more FL votes. Can't be a bad thing I'm guessing.

My own "model" from yesterday suggested Biden still wins if the GOP registereds total about 4.5M and the Dem registereds who vote total about 4M. That model presumed:

Indies go 51.5/48.5 to Biden
Biden wins 6-7% of GOP registered votes
Trump wins 3% of Dem Votes

And that presumed total Indie votes were just turning out 30% today on top of the early vote. It really all comes down to do you believe more GOP voters cross over and do more Indies go Biden,

But I'm not getting geeked up about the GOP registereds being 157K+ on the Dems, especially without Miami-Dade weighing in.
 
My own "model" from yesterday suggested Biden still wins if the GOP registereds total about 4.5M and the Dem registereds who vote total about 4M. That model presumed:

Indies go 51.5/48.5 to Biden
Biden wins 6-7% of GOP registered votes
Trump wins 3% of Dem Votes

And that presumed total Indie votes were just turning out 30% today on top of the early vote. It really all comes down to do you believe more GOP voters cross over and do more Indies go Biden,

But I'm not getting geeked up about the GOP registereds being 157K+ on the Dems, especially without Miami-Dade weighing in.

You're a bigger nerd than I am. As Ali G would say, respect.
 
Republicans ahead by around 200k, gonna come down to how independents split and how many cross party voters there are. Democrats needs a decent amount of independents it seems.

 
what sort of independent voter would vote for trump
 
I just started posting here, but i've been reading this board for years all the way back to the Scout board days. I just had a general philosophy of not posting on internet message boards because no one really cares about my beliefs. But with 2020 and this crazy election, I've said F it and started posting some. I'll tell you exactly my biases. I'm a registered R in NC who has been voting straight D since about 2014 after seeing all of the shit that NC republicans did to cheat rules and say "screw the libs".

welcome to the posting side. no one cares about my opinion either but that's sure as hell not going to stop me from providing it! (My voting history is the same as yours, except i switched to independent in 2018.)
 
For those with DirecTV, channel 71 is an election mix channel with CNN, MSNBC, Fox and (for some reason) NewsMax
 
Libertarians who want to pretend they are independent thinkers and “but both sides suck” but are actually closet racists.

And Republicans/Trumpites who also like to call themselves "independent thinkers" even though they still believe everything Fox News says and vote Republican 99% of the time, but don't want to admit that to friends, family, coworkers, etc.
 
what sort of independent voter would vote for trump
An independent (NPA in FL) who doesn’t really care much about politics but likes Trump didn’t have to register as a Pub to vote in a primary.
 
An independent (NPA in FL) who doesn’t really care much about politics but likes Trump didn’t have to register as a Pub to vote in a primary.

Are there a good number of Cuban voters who could fall into this category?
 
i'll give you an example or my cousin who I've been talking to. Though in SC so it doesn't really matter, but think Trump is an idiot but says my 401k is up 100% in the last 4 years, was pissed that his employer provided health insurance increased around 30% after obamacare started and doesn't like the rheteric of the idiots in Portland/antifa rioting and breaking stuff stuff without much push back from democrats and liberal media.

I disagree with all of that and its being more a fox news viewers and taking talking points vs. looking into the details of stuff, but this is sorta the mindset of independent/republican trump voters from what I gather from family members.
 
The 5yo just posed a terrifying scenario that none of us has even considered. “What if Viden is really President Trump and President Trump is really Viden and they’re just wearing masks”.
 
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