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Henry Chinaski

Henry Chinaski

Steve Lepore
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Figures we could confine discussion to its own thread. If i'm reading correctly, historically runoffs haven't favored dems due to turnout (in fact some have argued that the runoff provision is essentially a racist, anti-dem feature of Ga elections for that very reason)

In Dems favor:
- pub candidates are terrible, even by pub standards.
- Warnock in particular seems to have some cache
- somewhat rationale pubs (are there any left?) may be turned off by very alarming moves by Trump since the general
- 2% 3rd party vote will likely trend their way

In pubs favor:
- to me, most important is that i think they will scare monger people with the boogeyman of "socialist joe" getting control of senate. before you know it every gun will be banned and babies will be in blenders.
- Georgia is full of rubes
- turnout as mentioned above
- Dawgs are having a shitty year and they will probably blame the Black dude and Jewish guy (and that QB from Lake Forest)
- trump might show up to prove his brand in advance of 2024 (? - this could swing both ways?)


i actually see some material proportion of people doing the Warnock / Perdue split ticket to feel good about themselves. "hey i'm doing the right thing and voted for that nice preacher but bygawd i can't let the socialists control congress"

any other views by folks that are closer to the action?
 
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I think the fact that Trump isn’t on the ticket may result in lower turnout among some of the former GOP votes that were part of the “cult of personality”.

I have a hard time believing that Trump will do anything to help either candidate unless it somehow helps himself.

My conservative friends are hammering me pretty hard on the idea of court packing and DC and PR statehood forever changing the political landscape resulting in massive government spending.

I could very easily see a large number of Perdue/Warnock voters. Loeffler spent the entire general trying to prove how conservative she was - including the awful “Kelly’s more conservative than Attila the Hun ad. She campaigned with the QAnon candidate and is legitimately terrible.
 
Much depends on how hard Trump campaigns for the 2 GOP candidates. If he campaigns in GA and speaks and tweets on their behalf it will certainly help. If he doesn't, then GOP turnout might well be lower. The Democrats did a great job of getting out the vote in their areas in the presidential election, I guess we'll see if they can do it again. I agree that Warnock winning is more likely than Ossoff. Perdue has got that good 'ol boy schtick that rural and some suburban Southerners love, while Ossoff (who would be a far better Senator than Perdue) comes across as your typical bland suburban professional that is unlikely to get any rural or exurban votes. At best I think the Democrats will get one out of two, with Warnock the most likely Democratic winner.
 
Agree - it’s too bad that the races aren’t flip flopped so Warnock could get the full 6 years. That said he and Abrams could really help each other out if she makes another run at Gov in ‘22.
Highland Deac said:
Much depends on how hard Trump campaigns for the 2 GOP candidates. If he campaigns in GA and speaks and tweets on their behalf it will certainly help. If he doesn't, then GOP turnout might well be lower. The Democrats did a great job of getting out the vote in their areas in the presidential election, I guess we'll see if they can do it again. I agree that Warnock winning is more likely than Ossoff. Perdue has got that good 'ol boy schtick that rural and some suburban Southerners love, while Ossoff (who would be a far better Senator than Perdue) comes across as your typical bland suburban professional that is unlikely to get any rural or exurban votes. At best I think the Democrats will get one out of two, with Warnock the most likely Democratic winner.
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Trump is going to campaign there. 1) It will be the beginning of his 2024 campaign; and 2) It allows him to both be in front of a bunch a people and cause more folks to get COVID. Its a win-win.
 
I read this as Jawa specials and opened it looking for good deals on protocol droids.

 
DeaconSig said:
Trump is going to campaign there. 1) It will be the beginning of his 2024 campaign; and 2) It allows him to both be in front of a bunch a people and cause more folks to get COVID. Its a win-win.
Click to expand...

I could very easily see Trump refusing to campaign because he lost the state and will perceive it as Loeffler and Perdue didn’t do enough to help them there and couldn’t even win without a runoff so why would he help losers? He likes winners.
 
DeaconCav06 said:
I could very easily see Trump refusing to campaign because he lost the state and will perceive it as Loeffler and Perdue didn’t do enough to help them there and couldn’t even win without a runoff so why would he help losers? He likes winners.
Click to expand...

Plus you can't just have the Air Force gas up the 747 or 757 and fly down. Gotta coordinate your own transport and pay for it.
 
I'm with DC06, and the betting odds favor Warnock and Perdue. I also agree it's not a given that Trump campaigns on behalf of Perdue and Loeffler. I made the point on another thread that, while runoffs and midterms usually favor Pubs, Trump may have flipped that around. Dems showed up en masse in 2018 and 2020, whereas Pubs only showed up en masse in 2020. I'd be surprised if Warnock lost. African American turnout should not be a problem, and Loeffler is a lunatic. I can see a lot of Pubs thinking she's a bridge too far, and Warnock is a good Christian. But at the same time, the hell if I want Dems to have the senate. So I anticipate a significant amount of ticket splitting. The question will be how big the Trump turnout is and if Warnock can carry Ossoff over the finish line if the Trump turnout is light.
 
So how will this be conducted? There will definitely be a mail-in component, right? Kemp can't suddenly decide to have in-person voting only, and one location per county?
 
 
all that dope does is quote Bible verses on Twitter, and also claims he doesn't read tweets (referring to when asked about Trump ones). guess he read this one, though.
 
There is absolutely no telling what Trump is likely to do with regard to the GA Senate run-offs. A lot of it probably has to do with where things stand with his election, because after all, that is all he cares about. If all states have been certified, and if him being booted out in mid January is inevitable, he may just hide for a while. Or he could feel vindictive toward the state of GA, the GOP there, and the GOP in general for not doing all they could to keep him on as Prez and just ignore the race there. Or obviously he could use it as an excuse to do some MAGA rallies. However, even so, I don't see him doing much campaigning for the two candidates. Sure, they would be there (I assume) - but I'm sure he would just spend an hour plus ranting about how the election was stolen from him, how the Sec of State there should be in jail, how he was the best Prez ever, Biden is terrible, etc. Probably not a peep about the actual Senate candidates.
 
Yeah if they certify Georgia for Biden there is no fucking way Trump will set foot in the state of Georgia in the next 3 months.
 
Yeah, I think there is hope for both Dems. Dem turnout with Warnock on the ballot should be high. Assuming Trump doesn't go down there or tweet much about it, that non-college educated white base that came out in 2016 and 2020 but not in 2018 might again stay home with Trump not on this ballot. And Ossoff has to hope that there isn't much ticket splitting so that Warnock carries him over the finish line.
 
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