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2022 races (and 2021 for weird commonwealths like Virginia)

Good read on the Arkansas gov election from The Bulwark.

https://thebulwark.com/sarah-huckabee-sanders-and-the-high-church-of-grievance/

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A Democrat can’t win the Arkansas governor’s race with a negative tone. It’s simply not possible as a matter of mathematics. So Chris Jones has to come at his campaign from a place of optimism.

But whether this optimism is innate or he’s showing it out of political necessity, Jones is selling something that Huckabee Sanders and Republicans like her say that Democrats by definition don’t have in stock. The opening salvo of his campaign is a civic-minded story about people making something of themselves. About people building things with their brains and their hands. This is a TED-talk-meets-pregame-locker-room-speech, not a message of “socialism” or “tyranny” or a “radical left” or “cancel culture,” or any similar warning that’s deprived of meaning when applied to people such as Chris Jones.

Which brings us to Sarah Huckabee Sanders’s choice. Unlike Jones, she can run on any story she wants and win. She could run on her family name, or policy positions in-line with a majority of Arkansas voters, or even just by framing her association with Trump as a positive credential: as relevant high-level experience, or as playing for the team that most voters in her state root for.

Yet even with that buffet of options available, Sarah Huckabee Sanders still chose grievance. She still chose fear-mongering. She still chose to stoke outgroup hatred.

The lesson from Arkansas is that while the Democratic party still can be many things, the Republican party is only one.
 
Good article in the Miami Herald summarizing and pointing out the ineptitude and failures of the Florida Democratic Party, and of how the Florida GOP has taken advantage of it to turn Florida into almost a one-party state.

"Democrats have yet to shake off the “socialist” label the GOP throws at whatever candidates have a “D” next to their name. That likely cost Democrats two congressional seats in Miami-Dade last year. “For a lot of Democrats, they didn’t consider [the socialist label] be to an actual threat,” state Rep. Anna Eskamani, D-Orlando, told the Editorial Board. “It almost seemed like a joke.”

Yes, it’s a joke to think someone such as Joe Biden, a moderate, is a socialist, but the truth doesn’t matter as long as enough people believe in it.

Where’s the strategy to punch back?"

Link: https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article252910398.html
 
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Florida is a one party state. Florida Democrats have a few good individual talents but no overarching message. Republicans have been steadily destroying public education, the unemployment system, and the environment in easy to understand ways, but Democrats don’t have a basic message or a plan aside from just playing defense.
 
I hope everyone enjoys listening to House Speaker McCarthy declare impeachment hearings against Biden in 2023, seeing Greene, Boebert, Cawthorn, etc. in positions of actual power, and watching The Squad be stripped of their committee posts and muzzled in revenge for what happened to Greene. One part of the article notes that under the new gerrymandering rules GA Democrats could win 50% of the statewide vote and yet still win only 20% of the state's House seats.

 
WFFaithful said:
BUT THE FILABUSTER!
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It's almost as if some Democratic pols have such a defeatist attitude that they expect to be in the minority most of the time, and so would rather try to protect what little shreds of power they may have as a minority rather than doing something bold to gain and keep a majority. I think some Democratic pols are as scared and intimidated by Trumpites as the GOP Establishment is, and they're just as frightened of pissing them off.
 
Yet people like to be fans of the winning team, one that represents power. Democrats portray weakness all the time.
 
And Republicans portray power even when in the minority.
 
Democrats need to figure out the way are, that's the real problem.

Too many in the party just want to keep the status quo, mainly to benefit their bank accounts and the stock prices of their corporate benefactors.

But we're firmly in the midst of a historical era of upheaval. Shit is going to change, either for the good or the bad. Climate/COVID/etc isn't going away and unrest is going to continue.

The Liberals need to get on fucking board and find the courage needed to defeat their conservative adversaries who've been playing a zero sum game to take as much power as possible for the last decade. Democrats have the voters and the means to crush the White Nationalist inspired Right, but I strongly fear that the Liberals (historical term for moderate leftists) won't have the gumption and resolve to fight back.

Which means we're probably headed towards the GOP taking back Congress in 2022 through gerrymandering and voter suppression, Biden and Harris being impeached, and the Republicans using every lever possible to hoard as much power as possible. Hopefully this will finally convince ALL Democrats to fight back and rally around progressive and rational policies which are attractive to a large majority of voters.

Eventually the White Nationalists will be defeated due to lack of popular support and an inability to find the next Trump, but the timidity and self interest of the Liberals will make the next 5-10 years for more chaotic and violent than they need to be.
 
That’s an optimistic take, Brasky.
 
PhDeac said:
That’s an optimistic take, Brasky.
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Maybe, but I don’t think the “silent majority” isn’t all that sizable. Maybe 20-25% of the population (around half of whites) and demographically they are losing every day. I think we’re headed for some short term white fascism, which is generally followed by a progressive push back and real change.

If not, then I think it’s full blown Civil War.
 
I think that 35% (a little over half of white non-Hispanic adults) will effectively consolidate power through gerrymandering and state legislature control of elections. They’ll be aided by another 10-15% of the population who doesn’t care and another 10-15% afraid to act.

The Civil War has already started on the right by legitimizing political violence against the left and/or disenfranchised groups as part of a culture war.
 
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J.D. Vance continues his "Trolling Liberals While Running for Ohio Senator" roadshow on Tucker. Apparently conservatives have opened a new front in their culture wars - if you don't have kids you shouldn't have any voice in running the country, because you're worthless. Good to know.

 
So I’m sure he’s for robust welfare programs and child tax credits.
 
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