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2022 races (and 2021 for weird commonwealths like Virginia)

DeaconSig said:
Given that Beasley doesn't show any desire to campaign, I think she will get smoked.
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Biden won from his basement. Generic Dem vs. Generic Pub. This election is going to be about turnout, plain and simple.

Alternate theories:
1. He was told to go negative to close the gap in the primary and declined. That would be nice.
2. He isn't digging the headwinds against his party in this particular off-year election.
 
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DeaconSig said:
Given that Beasley doesn't show any desire to campaign, I think she will get smoked.
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The Politico article addressed that. It struck a contrast between Jackson's college tours and Beasley's low key personal engagement with voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/10/29/cheri-beasley-jeff-jackson-north-carolina-senate-race-517215


This is a damn good exit message. Hopefully, he channels this energy on the campaign trail for Beasley.

Hey folks - got some news.

We’ve run a strong campaign, but everyone needs to know when to step aside.

At the very beginning, we said we were going to make this a true 100 county campaign - and we did. We held town halls in every county, over a dozen colleges, and nearly 10,000 of you became volunteers, for which I am so grateful.

Now it’s time to take a hard look at what staying in this race would mean.

Cheri Beasley is consistently leading in the polls.

I’ve also gotten to know her personally, and I can tell you, she’s wonderful. She’s been genuinely kind to me and my family and at no point have she and I engaged in attacks against each other. She’s been a dedicated public servant for over two decades and has always fought for justice.

Cheri Beasley will be a great U.S. Senator for North Carolina. So today, I’m going to be her first endorsement as our party’s presumptive nominee.

We have to come together - right now. We all saw what happened with the election in Virginia last month. We’re headed into a tough one here.

Pat McCrory and Ted Budd are gearing up to spend millions of dollars attacking each other in order to be the Republican nominee.

If we’re going to flip this seat, we can’t do that. A costly and divisive primary will sink this whole thing. We need to unite - right now - and we need to unite behind Cheri.

To our supporters, I know this is not welcome news. But I honestly believe that the reason you supported this campaign - the thing you saw that you really liked - is the same thing you’re seeing today, with this decision.


We were always honest. We tried to do the right thing simply because it was the right thing to do. We tried to raise your expectations for candidates and campaigns.

That’s where this decision comes from. We can’t carry on knowing that the most likely effect would be to weaken the eventual nominee before they head into a fierce general election. That’s not serving you well. Keeping faith with you means making a really hard decision to step aside, but it’s only hard because I know so many of you are going to be sad to hear it.

Your enthusiasm for our campaign has meant the world to me, Marisa, and our whole team. We poured our hearts and souls into this campaign and you met us right there.

Every county, every town hall, it’s been a campaign genuinely built and powered by all of you. You were the engine, and you took us across the state, from sun-up to sun-down, telling us what you want from political leadership, making yourselves very clear that you expect honesty and decency and compassion and real answers.

Marisa and I will always be grateful for your support. And as for me, I’m going to skip the part where I feel bad and go right to the part where I join you in working to make this a great election that we’ll all be proud to have been a part of.

I’ll see you soon.

Best,
Jeff
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PhDeac said:
The Politico article addressed that. It struck a contrast between Jackson's college tours and Beasley's low key personal engagement with voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/10/29/cheri-beasley-jeff-jackson-north-carolina-senate-race-517215


This is a damn good exit message. Hopefully, he channels this energy on the campaign trail for Beasley.
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Honestly, that speech is a good example of why he should have been the Democratic candidate next year. As the politico article pointed out, Beasley is going to really have to step up her game and campaigning style if she's going to win. Nothing to do now but hope that McCrory and Budd tear each other apart in the GOP primary to damage their chances and that Beasley can get a big turnout next November.
 
Highland Deac said:
Honestly, that speech is a good example of why he should have been the Democratic candidate next year. As the politico article pointed out, Beasley is going to really have to step up her game and campaigning style if she's going to win. Nothing to do now but hope that McCrory and Budd tear each other apart in the GOP primary to damage their chances and that Beasley can get a big turnout next November.
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Maybe he's saving that juice for a better year for Dems.
 
You sure seem damn confident that this year is gonna suck for Democrats.
 
You can keep talking about Virginia as if it were a referendum on anything democratic. Youngkin made every effort to not talk policy on the record. He is the same thing as trump policy wise (own the libs, legislate his religious beliefs, dishonesty etc).

The problem (my pov) with the election was that dems did not turn out. The trumpublicans got worked up over bs republican talking points. The same people were the ones showing up in my county and booing and heckling children speaking at school board events. I'm sure their preacher absolved them of their sins Sunday morning before launching into an anti gay tirade.
 
BarcaDeac said:
are you excited for more Trump-endorsed Republicans in office?
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Of course not. He would never vote for trump, trump endorsed candidates, or trump policies. He's an independent thinker that's just not going to vote for a wolf in sheep's clothing. He's into REAL trickle down compassionate conservative policies ! !
 
My take on the Jeff Jackson withdrawal is that R's will be spending $$ in the primary, so D's want to avoid that and spend more on the election. D's are aligning behind the poll leader to accomplish this. My wife and I are disappointed Jeff withdrew, but we see the value in the above strategy.
 
deaconson said:
You can keep talking about Virginia as if it were a referendum on anything democratic. Youngkin made every effort to not talk policy on the record. He is the same thing as trump policy wise (own the libs, legislate his religious beliefs, dishonesty etc).

The problem (my pov) with the election was that dems did not turn out. The trumpublicans got worked up over bs republican talking points. The same people were the ones showing up in my county and booing and heckling children speaking at school board events. I'm sure their preacher absolved them of their sins Sunday morning before launching into an anti gay tirade.
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This is how you keep losing. I linked the RCP right track/wrong track polling data yesterday. It's a long way until November and a lot can happen, but 61% of the country doesn't think the Country is on the wrong track because Youngkin owned the libs.
 
Maybe they think it’s on the wrong track because of your party
 
So what happened with the Build Back Better bill if the dems have the presidency and a majority in the house with a split senate (and a dem VP to cast the deciding vote)?
 
Looks like JD Vance's attempts to bend the knee to Trump just haven't been enough. Poor guy.

From the article: "Now a new polling memo from Vance's campaign warns that he's suffering "precipitious decline." The memo suggests that Vance is seen as insufficiently conservative and that his unfavorable rating among GOP voters is tied to perceptions that he isn't sufficiently worshipful of Trump." Glad to know that pivot is coming soon!

 
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Does anybody believe when Junebug or jhmd are willing to say they don’t believe the Big Lie at church or the country club or at the charter school dad’s hangout or on the back porch in their gated community?

I’d love to do some research to find out how regular Republicans are managing this tension on the ground. Is there some sort of hotline they can call?
 
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