Pilchard
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On Friday, our Deacs take on the Longwood Lancers out of Farmville, VA for game 2 of Steve Forbes Dynasty.
The Lancers:
Longwood is a "slight" upgrade over Del. State (btw, Delaware State had several players, it appeared up to 6, mysteriously absent yesterday; not sure if it was COVID related or something else; so, while a 60 point win is awesome, let's keep in mind that came against a team that is not only awful, but almost half their team didn't show). Back to Longwood: the Lancers finished last year 14-18 (9-9) in a weak Big South, but their record was actually worse than it appears. When Longwood hired Griff Aldrich in 2018, the decision was made to play a soft a schedule as is possible: Longwood may be the only D-1 team to have not faced a top 100 foe since the 2017-8 season. The plan to build program confidence via similar low major opponents appears to be working as Longwood won a school record 9 Big South Conference games last year. After the Deacs win over DSU yesterday, WF is currently rated #117 in KP. At #117, WF will be the highest rated team Longwood has played since December 19, 2017.
This year's Longwood team lost 3 starters from last year's middle of the pack Big South squad, but they return their best player, 6-0 G Juan Munoz (10 ppg, 3 rpg, 3 apg); their second best returning player is 6-3 Deshaun Wade (9 ppg, 4 rpg) an ECU transfer; beyond Munoz and Wade, the Lancers will fill their lineup with 6-3 G So. Heru Bligen (4 ppg), 6-2 JUCO transfer G Jermaine Drewey, 6-1 Fr. G Justin Hill, 6-7 F Jr. Christian Wilson (6 ppg, 3rpg), 6-8 F Leslie Nkereuwem (4ppg, 4rpg), 6-7 Cal-Riverside transfer Zac Watson). If it seems that the Lancers are small and guard oriented, they are. Coach Aldrich generally plays the "4 out drive and kick out" offense. Longwood loves to shoot from deep as 42% of their shots came from behind the arc last year (#6 in the nation), while only 38% of their offense came from 2 (#351 in the nation). Naturally, defending the arc is the key to limiting the Lancers.
To the extent that Longwood has a strength it is on defense. Their were 2nd in the Big South in defensive efficiency, ranking in the top 3 in the conference in forcing turnovers, preventing offensive rebounds and 2 point FG% defense. Longwood's offense was terrible even for the Big South ranking DFL in the conference in offensive efficiency, and near the bottom in every offensive category (TO%, 2 PT%, 3 PT%, offensive rebound %) except for 3 point % and FT %. Overall, KP ranked Longwood as #339 in the country on offense -- bad. If the Lancers have trouble scoring against Delaware State's hapless defense today, that will be a bad sign for Longwood tomorrow. FWIW, I expect Longwood to win comfortably today as the current Delaware State squad may the worst in the nation.
Score Projection:
KP projects a 77-62 WF win tomorrow. Confident that Forbes will have the Deacs defending the 3 and given the depth that WF flashed yesterday, think it's more likely that the Deacs win by a bigger margin than the KP projection. While Longwood will present a marginally stiffer test than DSU, looking like the Deacs cruise again on Friday night.
BTW, Longwood has produced NBA talent. Jerome Kersey who was a key component of the strong Portland Blazer teams in the late 1980s and early 1990s, hails from Longwood. Also, Pat McGee of the Pat McGee Band is another alum claimed by the Lancers.
The Lancers:
Longwood is a "slight" upgrade over Del. State (btw, Delaware State had several players, it appeared up to 6, mysteriously absent yesterday; not sure if it was COVID related or something else; so, while a 60 point win is awesome, let's keep in mind that came against a team that is not only awful, but almost half their team didn't show). Back to Longwood: the Lancers finished last year 14-18 (9-9) in a weak Big South, but their record was actually worse than it appears. When Longwood hired Griff Aldrich in 2018, the decision was made to play a soft a schedule as is possible: Longwood may be the only D-1 team to have not faced a top 100 foe since the 2017-8 season. The plan to build program confidence via similar low major opponents appears to be working as Longwood won a school record 9 Big South Conference games last year. After the Deacs win over DSU yesterday, WF is currently rated #117 in KP. At #117, WF will be the highest rated team Longwood has played since December 19, 2017.
This year's Longwood team lost 3 starters from last year's middle of the pack Big South squad, but they return their best player, 6-0 G Juan Munoz (10 ppg, 3 rpg, 3 apg); their second best returning player is 6-3 Deshaun Wade (9 ppg, 4 rpg) an ECU transfer; beyond Munoz and Wade, the Lancers will fill their lineup with 6-3 G So. Heru Bligen (4 ppg), 6-2 JUCO transfer G Jermaine Drewey, 6-1 Fr. G Justin Hill, 6-7 F Jr. Christian Wilson (6 ppg, 3rpg), 6-8 F Leslie Nkereuwem (4ppg, 4rpg), 6-7 Cal-Riverside transfer Zac Watson). If it seems that the Lancers are small and guard oriented, they are. Coach Aldrich generally plays the "4 out drive and kick out" offense. Longwood loves to shoot from deep as 42% of their shots came from behind the arc last year (#6 in the nation), while only 38% of their offense came from 2 (#351 in the nation). Naturally, defending the arc is the key to limiting the Lancers.
To the extent that Longwood has a strength it is on defense. Their were 2nd in the Big South in defensive efficiency, ranking in the top 3 in the conference in forcing turnovers, preventing offensive rebounds and 2 point FG% defense. Longwood's offense was terrible even for the Big South ranking DFL in the conference in offensive efficiency, and near the bottom in every offensive category (TO%, 2 PT%, 3 PT%, offensive rebound %) except for 3 point % and FT %. Overall, KP ranked Longwood as #339 in the country on offense -- bad. If the Lancers have trouble scoring against Delaware State's hapless defense today, that will be a bad sign for Longwood tomorrow. FWIW, I expect Longwood to win comfortably today as the current Delaware State squad may the worst in the nation.
Score Projection:
KP projects a 77-62 WF win tomorrow. Confident that Forbes will have the Deacs defending the 3 and given the depth that WF flashed yesterday, think it's more likely that the Deacs win by a bigger margin than the KP projection. While Longwood will present a marginally stiffer test than DSU, looking like the Deacs cruise again on Friday night.
BTW, Longwood has produced NBA talent. Jerome Kersey who was a key component of the strong Portland Blazer teams in the late 1980s and early 1990s, hails from Longwood. Also, Pat McGee of the Pat McGee Band is another alum claimed by the Lancers.
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