Pilchard
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The Troy Trojans invade Winston-Salem on Wednesday. It will be the 3rd and last game of the Trojans' 3 game road trip to NC to start the season.
Troy Last Season and Starting This Season:
Last year, after a long tenure at UT-Arlington, Coach Scott Cross took over the task of rebuilding the Troy program. In 2019-20, the Trojans finished DFL 9-22 (5-15) in the mediocre Sun Belt conference. Any hope of a decent season was lost when Troy lost their best (only) big, Zay Williams, in early January. When Zay Williams was injured (they have another Williams on the TT roster), the Trojans stood at 6-10 (2-3), Troy finished the year 3-13 (all Sun Belt conference games), losing their last 7 games of the 2019-20 season. Without the 6-9 Zay, Troy was among the smallest teams in the nation with no starter taller than 6-6. Also, Cross's UT-Arlington teams played at fast tempo (top 25 in tempo in 4 of his last 5 years at UT-A), but due to the lack to talent, Troy reduced the pace of their offense (#119) to try to stay competitive.
Troy started this season with two games in Asheville. On Friday night, Troy upset Mark Prosser's Western Carolina team 66-64 on Friday (WCU has already played 4 games and is 3-1), and then on Saturday, Troy stumbled to a 73-50 loss to UNCW. Hard to draw conclusions based upon a small sample size, but the Trojans offense has struggled to start the season as they are averaging well under a point (.83) per possession (Troy ranks #308 in KP adjusted offensive efficiency). Defensively, Troy shutdown a veteran Western Carolina offense (in the Catamounts other 3 games they averaged over 90 a game) holding WCU to 66 points and 36% from the field, but then on Saturday, UNCW shredded the Troy defense, including shooting 52% from 3, blowing out the Trojans. Despite playing two up tempo teams in WCU and UNCW, both games were low scoring with an averaged combined point total of 126.5 (both games went way UNDER the game total).
The Lineup:
In the first two games, Troy started: G 6-1 Fr. Kam Woods (Alabama HS POY - scored 20 in the opener against WCU), G-F 6-5 Jr. Kieffer Punter (JUCO transfer), F 6-5 Sr. Khalyl Walters, F 6-6 Sr. Nick Stampley, C 6-9 Zay Williams (12 ppg, 9 rpg, 3.5 bpg). Troy's best 3 point shooter, Desmond Williams (39% last year; 4 for 8 this year; scored 15 points against WCU) comes off the bench, along with two freshman 6-5 G-F Antwan Burnett and 6-7 F-C Jakevan Leftridge. Woods and the two Williams (Zay and Des) are the Trojans' primary scorers; no one else on the Trojan offense has proved to be an offensive threat. With Ody still out, the primary concern will be the match up with the 6-9 Zay Williams as he will be the best offensive rebounder/low post scorer that WF has faced to date. Assuming Forbes continues to primarily play man, Williams will be a tough matchup for Massoud and Ingraham. Would expect WF to provide help when Zay gets the ball down low.
Score Projection:
KP projects a 77-64 WF win. After the DSU blowout on Wednesday, expect that Coach Forbes will use the middling effort against Longwood to motivate the Deacs for a strong effort on Wednesday. Massoud and Mucius should have bounce back games, and the Deacs perimeter depth should wear down the offensively challenged Trojans. Even without Ody, Deacs should win this one comfortably assuming there is no look ahead to the formidable Catawba College Indians this weekend.
Troy Last Season and Starting This Season:
Last year, after a long tenure at UT-Arlington, Coach Scott Cross took over the task of rebuilding the Troy program. In 2019-20, the Trojans finished DFL 9-22 (5-15) in the mediocre Sun Belt conference. Any hope of a decent season was lost when Troy lost their best (only) big, Zay Williams, in early January. When Zay Williams was injured (they have another Williams on the TT roster), the Trojans stood at 6-10 (2-3), Troy finished the year 3-13 (all Sun Belt conference games), losing their last 7 games of the 2019-20 season. Without the 6-9 Zay, Troy was among the smallest teams in the nation with no starter taller than 6-6. Also, Cross's UT-Arlington teams played at fast tempo (top 25 in tempo in 4 of his last 5 years at UT-A), but due to the lack to talent, Troy reduced the pace of their offense (#119) to try to stay competitive.
Troy started this season with two games in Asheville. On Friday night, Troy upset Mark Prosser's Western Carolina team 66-64 on Friday (WCU has already played 4 games and is 3-1), and then on Saturday, Troy stumbled to a 73-50 loss to UNCW. Hard to draw conclusions based upon a small sample size, but the Trojans offense has struggled to start the season as they are averaging well under a point (.83) per possession (Troy ranks #308 in KP adjusted offensive efficiency). Defensively, Troy shutdown a veteran Western Carolina offense (in the Catamounts other 3 games they averaged over 90 a game) holding WCU to 66 points and 36% from the field, but then on Saturday, UNCW shredded the Troy defense, including shooting 52% from 3, blowing out the Trojans. Despite playing two up tempo teams in WCU and UNCW, both games were low scoring with an averaged combined point total of 126.5 (both games went way UNDER the game total).
The Lineup:
In the first two games, Troy started: G 6-1 Fr. Kam Woods (Alabama HS POY - scored 20 in the opener against WCU), G-F 6-5 Jr. Kieffer Punter (JUCO transfer), F 6-5 Sr. Khalyl Walters, F 6-6 Sr. Nick Stampley, C 6-9 Zay Williams (12 ppg, 9 rpg, 3.5 bpg). Troy's best 3 point shooter, Desmond Williams (39% last year; 4 for 8 this year; scored 15 points against WCU) comes off the bench, along with two freshman 6-5 G-F Antwan Burnett and 6-7 F-C Jakevan Leftridge. Woods and the two Williams (Zay and Des) are the Trojans' primary scorers; no one else on the Trojan offense has proved to be an offensive threat. With Ody still out, the primary concern will be the match up with the 6-9 Zay Williams as he will be the best offensive rebounder/low post scorer that WF has faced to date. Assuming Forbes continues to primarily play man, Williams will be a tough matchup for Massoud and Ingraham. Would expect WF to provide help when Zay gets the ball down low.
Score Projection:
KP projects a 77-64 WF win. After the DSU blowout on Wednesday, expect that Coach Forbes will use the middling effort against Longwood to motivate the Deacs for a strong effort on Wednesday. Massoud and Mucius should have bounce back games, and the Deacs perimeter depth should wear down the offensively challenged Trojans. Even without Ody, Deacs should win this one comfortably assuming there is no look ahead to the formidable Catawba College Indians this weekend.
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