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KP Report: WF @ Duke - Noon Saturday ACCN

Pilchard

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On Saturday, WF completes its 3 game/6 day road trip with a visit to crazie-less Cameron Indoor Stadium. Here's a take on a Duke team that K doesn't seem to want to coach:

The season: Duke is 4-2 (2-0), but the ride has been rocky. So far, Duke's best win was over #90 ND by 10. Otherwise, the Devils suffered bad losses to two Big 10 teams (by 6 at home to #40 Michigan State; by 15 at home to #8 Illinois) or escaped with narrow wins against less than stellar competition (by 10 to #336 Coppin State, by 1 to #100 BC on Wednesday). Duke started the season at #2 in KP, and as the pre-season rankings have evolved based on in-season results, the Devils have fallen to #17. The Dookies encountered a key injury (their best player Jalen Johnson has been out since December 8 with a foot injury) and COVID issues (K has been out due to COVLID protocol, and his team sucking), causing the cancelation of a couple of OOC games. Duke has only played once since December 16 and looked rusty on D, escaping BC by 1 this week (BC blew a 16 point lead).

The lineup: Duke has had 9 different players start a game this year. Against BC, Duke started:

6-1 Fr. Jeremy Roach (double figure points in his last 3; 62% from 2; 33% from 3; assist leader)
6-2 Fr. DJ Steward (averaged 15 ppg game against ND and BC; 37% from 3)
6-2 Sr. Jordan Goldwire (4th year as a non-factor; 29% from 3)
6-9 So. Matthew Hurt (best player; #2 player in the ACC according to KP; leading scorer and rebounder; shooting 40% from 3, has scored 24 or more in each of last 3)
7-0 Fr. Mark Williams (a stiff; started against BC; scoreless missing both shots from the field and both FTs; has played more than 8 minutes in 1 of 6 games)

Off the bench, Duke played:

6-5 So. Wendell Moore (started to begin the season; coming off two scoreless games, exploded against BC for 25 points)
6-8 Fr. Jaemyn Brakefield (erratic freshman; 0 points 1 rebound in 9 minutes against BC; 10 points and 5 boards against ND)
6-6 Jr. Joey Baker (generally a nothing-burger, but of course, had his ACC career high point total of 11 against WF last year; has sucked all year shooting 20% from 3 and 43% for 2; will probably go off on Saturday)

Keep in mind that Duke's top class of 2020 recruit 6-9 Fr. F/C Jalen Johnson (projected high NBA lottery pick) is close to returning. Would be typical for Johnson to return against WF. Duke will be much better when Johnson returns and is 100%.

The analytics: Unusual Duke team: they don't get to the line often (#304 in FTA per FGA) and when they do, they struggle from the line (66% #256); Duke's 3 point shooting was atrocious in OOC games, but has improved over the last two against ND and BC (43% from 3, but both ND and BC are horrible defensive teams); as a result, this Duke team doesn't rely on the 3 as much as previous editions. The Devils committed 14 TOs against BC (5 by Roach). Like a lot of young teams, Duke's defense has been weak so far this year. Against ND and BC, the Devils allowed an effective FG% of 60%, but they did force some TOs (BC committed 21). Duke went small against BC starting 3 players 6-3 or less; would expect Moore to start on Saturday coming off his big game. The Dookies are really young ranking #338 in experience this year.

The bottom line: Recent K teams have started the year ahead of everyone else and then tailed off during the season. This year has been different. Duke has started slow (1-5 ATS), but will improve when Johnson returns, the freshman gain experience and K decides the team is worth his attention. No WF fan would be surprised if this is the game when K and Jalen Johnson return.

KP projects 79-65 Devils win. Against UVA, looked like WF has started to get its legs back, shooting over 50% from the field against an elite defensive team, and holding its own on the boards. Even so, third game in a row on the road for WF is a tough spot, and even if Jalen Johnson doesn't return for the Devils, it looks like Moore, Steward and Roach have started to find their mojo. For WF to have a chance, WF's pressure D will need to force TOs from Duke's inexperienced backcourt; also, Mucius will need to play high-level D on Hurt, and WF's three point shots will need to fall. That's a lot that needs to go right. Think the Deacs will put up a good fight, but don't see WF winning on Saturday. The Devils win and think the game may be significantly higher scoring than either the GT or UVA games.
 
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Duke is down, Cameron is empty. Let's grab a win in there AND knock them out the top 25.
 
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Amazing how good Duke isn't when they don't have the crazies in the ear of the officials at Cameron.
 
Gotta be weird to play in an empty Cameron - goes from being one of the most intense fan atmospheres in sports to one of the shittiest middle-school-sized field houses anyone will play in all year.
 
Gotta be weird to play in an empty Cameron - goes from being one of the most intense fan atmospheres in sports to one of the shittiest middle-school-sized field houses anyone will play in all year.
Good friend of mine is a Duke grad. For years, I heard that I absolutely had to visit Cameron. Just had to see it. Finally saw it. Place is a dump. Kind of like the tourist attraction that looks absolutely nothing like the brochure in person. You wish you'd never gone.
 
I thought going to Cameron was a great experience and something that every college basketball fan should try to visit sometime. However, the concourse is crammed with people and the seats are tiny. Other than the lobby, the rest of the stadium just hasn’t adjusted to new times. It’s very uncomfortable, but still was a fantastic experience.
 
Amazing how good Duke isn't when they don't have the crazies in the ear of the officials at Cameron.

And K can't cuss out the officials and throw massive hissy fits without it being picked up on a mic.

Manning would have thrived in these empty stadiums with his telepathic approach to coaching.
 
Forbes is gonna pull off in his first try what no Wake coach has done since Odom
 
Sounds like Jalen Johnson will not play for Duke tomorrow.
 
On Saturday, WF completes its 3 game/6 day road trip with a visit to crazie-less Cameron Indoor Stadium. Here's a take on a Duke team that K doesn't seem to want to coach:

The season: Duke is 4-2 (2-0), but the ride has been rocky. So far, Duke's best win was over #90 ND by 10. Otherwise, the Devils suffered bad losses to two Big 10 teams (by 6 at home to #40 Michigan State; by 15 at home to #8 Illinois) or escaped with narrow wins against less than stellar competition (by 10 to #336 Coppin State, by 1 to #100 BC on Wednesday). Duke started the season at #2 in KP, and as the pre-season rankings have evolved based on in-season results, the Devils have fallen to #17. The Dookies encountered a key injury (their best player Jalen Johnson has been out since December 8 with a foot injury) and COVID issues (K has been out due to COVLID protocol, and his team sucking), causing the cancelation of a couple of OOC games. Duke has only played once since December 16 and looked rusty on D, escaping BC by 1 this week (BC blew a 16 point lead).

The lineup: Duke has had 9 different players start a game this year. Against BC, Duke started:

6-1 Fr. Jeremy Roach (double figure points in his last 3; 62% from 2; 33% from 3; assist leader)
6-2 Fr. DJ Steward (averaged 15 ppg game against ND and BC; 37% from 3)
6-2 Sr. Jordan Goldwire (4th year as a non-factor; 29% from 3)
6-9 So. Matthew Hurt (best player; #2 player in the ACC according to KP; leading scorer and rebounder; shooting 40% from 3, has scored 24 or more in each of last 3)
7-0 Fr. Mark Williams (a stiff; started against BC; scoreless missing both shots from the field and both FTs; has played more than 8 minutes in 1 of 6 games)

Off the bench, Duke played:

6-5 So. Wendell Moore (started to begin the season; coming off two scoreless games, exploded against BC for 25 points)
6-8 Fr. Jaemyn Brakefield (erratic freshman; 0 points 1 rebound in 9 minutes against BC; 10 points and 5 boards against ND)
6-6 Jr. Joey Baker (generally a nothing-burger, but of course, had his ACC career high point total of 11 against WF last year; has sucked all year shooting 20% from 3 and 43% for 2; will probably go off on Saturday)

Keep in mind that Duke's top class of 2020 recruit 6-9 Fr. F/C Jalen Johnson (projected high NBA lottery pick) is close to returning. Would be typical for Johnson to return against WF. Duke will be much better when Johnson returns and is 100%.

The analytics: Unusual Duke team: they don't get to the line often (#304 in FTA per FGA) and when they do, they struggle from the line (66% #256); Duke's 3 point shooting was atrocious in OOC games, but has improved over the last two against ND and BC (43% from 3, but both ND and BC are horrible defensive teams); as a result, this Duke team doesn't rely on the 3 as much as previous editions. The Devils committed 14 TOs against BC (5 by Roach). Like a lot of young teams, Duke's defense has been weak so far this year. Against ND and BC, the Devils allowed an effective FG% of 60%, but they did force some TOs (BC committed 21). Duke went small against BC starting 3 players 6-3 or less; would expect Moore to start on Saturday coming off his big game. The Dookies are really young ranking #338 in experience this year.

The bottom line: Recent K teams have started the year ahead of everyone else and then tailed off during the season. This year has been different. Duke has started slow (1-5 ATS), but will improve when Johnson returns, the freshman gain experience and K decides the team is worth his attention. No WF fan would be surprised if this is the game when K and Jalen Johnson return.

KP projects 79-65 Devils win. Against UVA, looked like WF has started to get its legs back, shooting over 50% from the field against an elite defensive team, and holding its own on the boards. Even so, third game in a row on the road for WF is a tough spot, and even if Jalen Johnson doesn't return for the Devils, it looks like Moore, Steward and Roach have started to find their mojo. For WF to have a chance, WF's pressure D will need to force TOs from Duke's inexperienced backcourt; also, Mucius will need to play high-level D on Hurt, and WF's three point shots will need to fall. That's a lot that needs to go right. Think the Deacs will put up a good fight, but don't see WF winning on Saturday. The Devils win and think the game may be significantly higher scoring than either the GT or UVA games.

While I appreciate all of the information, I think we can all agree that a simple "Fuck duke" would have sufficed.
 
Duke has a shitty team. We can beat them if we hit threes and avoid turnovers. Haven't been to Cameron in nearly 50 years, but a great atmosphere especially for Duke. I remember them beating us, 122-93, and it wasn't that close. I believe the Blue Devils would have beaten UCLA and Kareem that night. If you are a wine and cheese guy, Cameron is probably not for you. Palestra is the same way with more history.
 
Forbes is gonna pull off in his first try what no Wake coach has done since Odom

I’ve been to Cameron once. When Odom was coach. It was the game when Childress hit a 3 pointer over Grant Hill for the win on the buzzer. Couldn’t have been more than 50 awake fans there. I remember how hot it was. Had to be in the 80s where we were sitting. A great experience.....since we won.
 
Duke has a shitty team. We can beat them if we hit threes and avoid turnovers. Haven't been to Cameron in nearly 50 years, but a great atmosphere especially for Duke. I remember them beating us, 122-93, and it wasn't that close. I believe the Blue Devils would have beaten UCLA and Kareem that night. If you are a wine and cheese guy, Cameron is probably not for you. Palestra is the same way with more history.

Ahhh. The Palestra. Are you from the Philly area?
 
I was at Cameron in '17 during Collins' sophomore year when we took them down to the wire. Through a connection we have who's a pretty big donor with the Iron Dukes we got tickets on the rail behind the students at mid court. Great atmosphere for a game but that place is a fucking dump. The bathroom situation is a mess too. It's still a bucket list place to see a game, but we've turned down tickets a bunch of times to go back (non-Wake games). Cameron, in all its shitty glory, would be an absolutely insufferable place to see a game if you're not going to watch Wake.
 
Ahhh. The Palestra. Are you from the Philly area?

Yea. West Norriton/Norristown. Spent many a Saturday night there for doubleheaders during the Big Five heyday. Saw an NCAA first round tripleheader in '65. Haven't seen a game at the Palestra in over 40 years.
 
I was at Cameron in '17 during Collins' sophomore year when we took them down to the wire. Through a connection we have who's a pretty big donor with the Iron Dukes we got tickets on the rail behind the students at mid court. Great atmosphere for a game but that place is a fucking dump. The bathroom situation is a mess too. It's still a bucket list place to see a game, but we've turned down tickets a bunch of times to go back (non-Wake games). Cameron, in all its shitty glory, would be an absolutely insufferable place to see a game if you're not going to watch Wake.

For the objective part of this: The Crazies can make you really hate covering games there. Only had one shirt ruined by body paint. Varying degrees, depending on how big of a game it is, of how much spit you're showered with.

Worst Crazies are the ones who will read your story/tweets over your shoulder and give you shit about what you're writing. Those are the ones that make you stand up quickly when the game ends and crush them with the chair they've been humping all game.
 
Yea. West Norriton/Norristown. Spent many a Saturday night there for doubleheaders during the Big Five heyday. Saw an NCAA first round tripleheader in '65. Haven't seen a game at the Palestra in over 40 years.

My HS beat Norristown in state playoffs at the Palestra. You guys had Henry Williams.

You can't compare the Palestra in any way, shape or form to Cameron. The biggest and most important difference is that people went to the Palestra knew basketball and were real fans. People who go to Cameron need pre-printed instructions to know who to cheer and who to boo.
 
For the objective part of this: The Crazies can make you really hate covering games there. Only had one shirt ruined by body paint. Varying degrees, depending on how big of a game it is, of how much spit you're showered with.

Worst Crazies are the ones who will read your story/tweets over your shoulder and give you shit about what you're writing. Those are the ones that make you stand up quickly when the game ends and crush them with the chair they've been humping all game.

Thanks for sharing this! I've always thought that being at that press table must be wild.
 
What’s up with duke’s hideous uniforms?
 
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