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KP Report: L'ville Cards at the Joel: Wednesday 8:30 ACCN

Pilchard

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On Wednesday, our Deacs host Dino Gaudio and the #26 L'ville Cardinals. Here is the rundown on the opponent:

The season: The Cards head to Winston tied for first in the ACC with a 8-1(3-0) mark. L'ville owns top 100 wins over #46 Seton Hall by 1, #93 W. Kentucky by 21, #76 Pitt (without two starters) by 10, #43 KY by 3 and #33 VT by 2. #5 Wisconsin dominated the Cardinals by 37 when the Cardinals returned from a COVID by pause. L'ville has played a solid schedule (#52), they haven't played in a week, and Wednesday's game is part of a two-game road trip as they travel to Miami after our game.

The lineup: The Cards started the following 5 in their last game (73-71 win over VT):

6-1 Sr. Carlik Jones (coveted Radford transfer, leading scorer and in assists, 41% from 3)
6-5 So. David Johnson (projected 2021 NBA 1st round pick; double figures in last 7; 46% from 3)
6-5 Fr. Dre Davis (erratic, averaging 5 ppg over the last 5 games, only shooting 26% from 3)
6-6 Fr. Jae'Lyn Withers (redshirted in 2020, brother plays FB for the Packers, rebounding leader, 16 points 12 boards against VT)
6-7 Sr. Samuell Williamson (scored in double figures 3 times; scored 1 point against VT last time out)

Off the bench:

6-8 So. Quinn Slazinski (leads in minutes among bench players, 10 points 4 boards against VT; 23% from 3)
6-4 So. Josh Nickelberry (missed first 5 games, from NC, played a season high 16 minutes against VT, 33% from 3)
6-8 Fr. JJ Traynor (non-factor lately; 2 total points in last 3 games, dad played hoop for L'ville)

Three other players of note:

6-4 Gr. Charles Mineland (sought after grad transfer from U of San Francisco; averaged 15 ppg and 5 rpg last year; injured his knee in pre-season may return as early as Wednesday)
6-11 Fr. Gabe Wintzler (like Carter Whitt, graduated early from HS and enrolled during the season; WF offered; has played in 6 of the Cards' games, non-factor)
6-11 C Malik Williams (only returning starter, had foot surgery in November, not clear when/if he will return)

Analytics: L'ville's strength has been their defense. #22 in the country in defensive efficiency and they have been effective at keeping their opponent from scoring inside -- 44% on opponents 2 point FGs, #1 in the ACC in preventing offensive boards. They employ pack-line principles and do not force a lot of turnovers (#252), but the defense forces the opponent to use the shot-clock (#327 in time of defensive possessions). On offense (#40), they don't shoot many 3s (last in the ACC in % of points from behind the arc), but they attack the basket -- more than 20% of their points come from the line (#3 in the ACC) and they make 53% if their 2 point shots. The Cards play at a slow tempo, as among ACC teams only UVA plays at a slower pace (Cards average 66 possessions a game -- #302).

Bottom line: Chris Mack can coach. L'ville lost 4 starters from last year's team, then lost their lone returning starter before the season started and another key grad transfer to injury. Even so, the Cards are 8-1 (3-0) and have already beaten state-rival KY. L'ville should improve as the season goes on when Mineland and Williams return from injury and as their young players continue to improve. This is a decent match up for WF as L'ville is not huge upfront or deep (#311 in bench minutes). That said, L'ville plays solid D and wins close games as they are 3-0 in games decided by 3 or less. KP projects an 72-64 Cardinal win. Not ready to pick a WF upset, but think that WF is returning to form after the lengthy COVID pause, and as long as WF can keep Jones and Johnson from going off, think the Deacs can hang in until the end. Deacs lose close.
 
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You have to think we'll break through and win one of these games that we're probably not supposed to.

I'm just not sure this is the one.

But at least the team finally has a home game.
 
At first glance, Louisville doesn't look like it would be a good matchup for us. Strong defensive teams tend to pose problems for young, inexperienced offenses. This game will definitely reveal some clues as to how our development is coming along. A win would be great. A competitive game would be encouraging. A Georgia Tech-like loss would be back to square one.
 
If you want some insight on our coach and Chris Mack, recommend starting at the 25:02 mark (for the next 4:30) and watching this clip of today's press conference with Coach Forbes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7ny1j-O3Z8

Coach Forbes is just an awesome listen. We are in good hands. BTW, Chris Mack is a good dude as well (Mack is a fan of the double chicken teriyaki salad at Putters).
 
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Mack's actually kind of a dick, but we can disagree.

Amazing that Louisville was already on probation for the stripper-gate and is now about to go into a fresh hearing for the Pitino-Bowen and more violations, and yet it's really paid no price at all. Just like the NCAA likes it. Slow play it until people forget and impose paper penalties.
 
Listen to the entire interview. Forbes says more about how he runs his program in 20 minutes than what was said by our previous two coaches the entire time they were at Wake Forest. He is secure and confident in what it takes to win a basketball game. He is able to communicate his knowledge simply and directly. He states his expectations and supports them with his actions. He is accountable and expects accountability from his players. Just a matter of time.
 
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Listen to the entire interview. Forbes says more about how he runs his program in 20 minutes than what was said by our previous two coaches the entire time they were at Wake Forest. He is secure and confident in what it takes to win a basketball game. He is able to communicate his knowledge simply and directly. He states his expectations and supports them with his actions. He is accountable and expects accountability from his players. Just a matter of time.

Forbes is a great interview. Tells it like it is and has a great demeanor. Sets expectations, teaches his players how to get there and then it is up to them. I don't think he mentioned Neath which tells you something. Could you imagine listening to K that long and not falling asleep?
 
interesting that he talked about, was it sabban?, as the greatest college coach because of his consitency with regards to the program he wants to run and how he treats people. was there anyone less consisntent with things like line ups that manning?
 
No one likes moral victories....BUT....This team pretty much plays their asses off every single game. You can see the foundation being laid by Forbes. I LOVED watching Childress coaching on the sidelines last game and not sitting there face palming because his boss wouldn't let him talk.

Having said that, lets get the first big win of the Forbes era tonight! But, most importantly, lets recognize the difference in effort, ball movement, defense and accountability.
 
WF +8
O/U 135.5

Lean WF plus the points.
 
I kinda have the feeling this will be a competitive game tonight with the game still in the balance down the stretch. I really hope that's the case just to observe how we handle ourselves in crunch time opposed to the last two regime disasters. I have a feeling we will do less dumb shit than in years past under Forbes.
 
I think Conor asked about (Emma?) Okpomo during the video. I thought he was injured or his father died (?) but Coach seemed to indicate that his absence was a coach's decision.
 
He actually said he is here and available just DNP - Coaches decision
 
I think Conor asked about (Emma?) Okpomo during the video. I thought he was injured or his father died (?) but Coach seemed to indicate that his absence was a coach's decision.

Indeed -- thought I missed something, but we've never heard anything about him returning until yesterday, right? Covering games by watching on TV isn't the greatest way to see who's on the bench and who's not, but I didn't notice him on the bench in any games last week.
 
At first glance, Louisville doesn't look like it would be a good matchup for us. Strong defensive teams tend to pose problems for young, inexperienced offenses. This game will definitely reveal some clues as to how our development is coming along. A win would be great. A competitive game would be encouraging. A Georgia Tech-like loss would be back to square one.

Tend to agree that strong defensive teams are a poor matchup for us —we’re somewhat fragile on offense, and we need to get open looks from three and hit a good percentage. Our wins this year will come from marginal ACC defensive teams, although I have no idea who that might be.
 
He actually said he is here and available just DNP - Coaches decision

good to know thanks.

Also, can anyone shed light on exactly why Dubose is out indefinitely? I know he had COVID like many of our other players, but wondering if there was something else keeping him off the floor.
 
good to know thanks.

Also, can anyone shed light on exactly why Dubose is out indefinitely? I know he had COVID like many of our other players, but wondering if there was something else keeping him off the floor.

Have to read between the lines over each of the press conferences when Forbes talks about the players returning from COVID. Sounded like Dubose, Ingraham and Forbes' son (who is on the staff) had the worst of it (and it sounded like essentially everyone had some heavy symptoms). Forbes said when the team was cleared to return to practice Dubose and Ingraham were not by the WF medical staff. So, DuBose and Ingraham were sent home to recover. Most recently, Forbes sounded reasonably positive that Dubose would return to the team at some point, but he had no timetable. Given the time it will take to get back up to speed (DuBose has essentially been quarantining and recovering since the end of November), it will be a while before DuBose can contribute meaningfully even if he is cleared to return to practice next week.
 
We’re not at home....but brought our Apple TV along...and it seems I can watch the game via the spectrum app...cool.

Go Deacs!
 
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