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Official 2022 Midterm Election Thread

Newenglanddeac

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Time to start identifying races up and down the ballot where you can make a difference. The pro-democracy side can’t afford to take a day off this cycle.
 
Time to start identifying races up and down the ballot where you can make a difference. The pro-democracy side can’t afford to take a day off this cycle.

Yep. If the Democrats have an off-year election in 2022 like 2014, 2010, or 1994 we're all going to be in world of hurt again in two to four years. Imagine Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker and guys like Jim Jordan and Gaetz and some of these nutcase wacko newbies like Cawthorn and Greene actually having power, McConnell and his fellow GOP Senators once again in charge of the Senate agenda, and Trumpites ascendant in state Republican organizations nearly everywhere. It should be a terrifying thought to anyone who watched what's happened over the past couple of weeks, or past year, or past four years. In 2022 all Democrats everywhere will need to turn out as they did in Georgia in this election cycle, twice.
 
I think Democrats are going to do a lot better than your typical off year election. it seems like the electorate is finally energized to vote and I don't know if not having Trump there to leave the ticket is going to result in Republican turnout
 
I think the Abrams race in GA will draw more excitement from the left than any midterm election I remember. That should help the national landscape. I’m sure the right will continue the anti-democracy bullshit that should excite the left too.
 
I think the Abrams race in GA will draw more excitement from the left than any midterm election I remember. That should help the national landscape. I’m sure the right will continue the anti-democracy bullshit that should excite the left too.

Warnock will be running again in 22 as well. He is filling the remainder of a term.
 
Fetterman has a good chance to pick up a seat in PA. Dems in NC need to find a good candidate. Beating Ron Johnson in WI is very doable.

There really aren't many others are likely to swing in either direction. Maybe NV, maybe IA if Grassley retires, or FL if they get tired of Rubio.

Dems really need to strengthen their ground game in the House.
 
Warnock will be running again in 22 as well. He is filling the remainder of a term.

And Abrams will likely be running against a Trump backed challenger to Kemp. Warnock and Abrams running against 2 Trumpites should make GA favorable. Possible Pub pick-ups are GA, AZ and NV. But the AZ Pub party is imploding, so right now, all 3 look like Dem leans. The possible Dem pick-ups are PA, WI and NC. I think FL, OH and IA are likely out of reach. Dems should be able to pick up 1, maybe 2. The house, otoh, could easily be lost.
 
A big question is -what will happen to the 22 elections if Trump and others have been tried and found guilty of crimes? Will people run away from them?
 
A big question is -what will happen to the 22 elections if Trump and others have been tried and found guilty of crimes? Will people run away from them?

The answer is yes. Polls (ok, I sometimes look at them) say Pub support for Dump is already down to 60% and still plunging.
 
And Abrams will likely be running against a Trump backed challenger to Kemp. Warnock and Abrams running against 2 Trumpites should make GA favorable. Possible Pub pick-ups are GA, AZ and NV. But the AZ Pub party is imploding, so right now, all 3 look like Dem leans. The possible Dem pick-ups are PA, WI and NC. I think FL, OH and IA are likely out of reach. Dems should be able to pick up 1, maybe 2. The house, otoh, could easily be lost.

the primary season will be a huge leading indicator. can the MAGA group successfully primary any "moderate" pubs of consequence?
 
And Abrams will likely be running against a Trump backed challenger to Kemp. Warnock and Abrams running against 2 Trumpites should make GA favorable. Possible Pub pick-ups are GA, AZ and NV. But the AZ Pub party is imploding, so right now, all 3 look like Dem leans. The possible Dem pick-ups are PA, WI and NC. I think FL, OH and IA are likely out of reach. Dems should be able to pick up 1, maybe 2. The house, otoh, could easily be lost.

I feel like some of the 2020 House results are just bounceback after the Dems won a bunch of difficult seats in 2018. That said, I am very worried about gerrymandering, especially since the Pub court already punted on that issue a year ago, and that was pre-Barrett. I'm also worried about Trumpites outright fabricating census data, and, for example, sending Kansas, the Dakotas, Wyoming two extra congressman each, at the expense of NY and CA. (Foxnews spin: "Look at all the people fleeing liberal hellholes for low tax conservative utopias!")
 
Since we are looking at the Trump family possibly running, I think we should start a movement to change the name of Karens to Ivankas.
 
I feel like some of the 2020 House results are just bounceback after the Dems won a bunch of difficult seats in 2018. That said, I am very worried about gerrymandering, especially since the Pub court already punted on that issue a year ago, and that was pre-Barrett. I'm also worried about Trumpites outright fabricating census data, and, for example, sending Kansas, the Dakotas, Wyoming two extra congressman each, at the expense of NY and CA. (Foxnews spin: "Look at all the people fleeing liberal hellholes for low tax conservative utopias!")

I don't know if they could get away with adding electoral votes to states that obviously don't deserve them based on previous Census data (and the Census Bureau releases population estimates of each state nearly every year.) I think the greater threat is that with most of the nation's state legislatures still in GOP hands, that the GOP will create even more extreme gerrymandering than we saw a decade ago, and so it will be even harder for Democrats to win a House majority than it has been for the past decade. In 2018 the Democrats won the national popular vote for the House by 9 points and gained 40 seats, but I've read that they actually should have gained almost twice as many seats were it not for the heavy gerrymandering that already existed. It may take Democrats winning the national vote for the House by double-digits just to win a bare majority. And with the federal and many state courts increasingly Republican, it's unlikely that Democrats can look to the courts for much relief in this decade.
 
Can Biden and the Dems order a new census saying there were intentional problems with Trump's?
 
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