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Thread: KP Report: WF @ UNC-ch -- Wednesday 7 pm ACCN

  1. #1

    KP Report: WF @ UNC-ch -- Wednesday 7 pm ACCN

    Steve Forbes takes our Deacs over to Chapel Hill tomorrow to challenge Old Roy Williams and his UNC Tar Heels. Here is an update on our opponent:

    This season: Consistently overrated and despite finishing last year tied for DFL in the ACC, UNC entered the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches poll. After a solid start in the pre-season tourney in Ashville, recently, UNC has played mediocre basketball (5-5 in their last 10). The Heels' top 100 wins are over: #46 Stanford by 4, #55 KY by 12, #87 ND by 1, #77 Miami by 2 and #51 Cuse by 6. Yes, UNC's best two wins this year are over middle-tier Pac 12 Stanford and bottom tier ACC team Miami. UNC fell straight up against: #8 Texas by 2, #3 Iowa by 13, #59 NC State by 3, #74 GT by 5 and #19 FSU by 7. Overall, the Heels stand at 8-5 and 3-3 in the ACC. FWIW, all 6 of the Heels' ACC games have decided by 7 or less.

    The lineup: In the Saturday loss to FSU, UNC started:

    6-4 Fr. Caleb Love -- assist and TO leader (1 to 1); struggled to score; averaging 7 ppg in ACC play; 21% from 3; alleged 1st round pick in the 2021 NBA draft
    6-5 Fr. Kerwin Walton -- coming off career 14 at FSU; UNC's best threat from 3 44%;
    6-8 Jr. Leaky Black -- HOF name; started all, but one game, but can't score; season high is 10 points; shooting 29% from 3 and 40% from 2; steals leader
    6-10 So. Armando Bacot -- world class ugly; leading scorer and rebounder at 11.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg; 62% from 2; 67% from the line; no threat from 3
    6-10 Sr. Garrison Brooks -- disappointing season; was ACC pre-season POY, but his numbers are down across the board; Roy benched Brooks for a couple of games after the loss to State; 44% from 2; NBA prospects dimming

    The bench:

    6-0 Anthony Harris -- RS in 2020; returned to play for the first time against FSU; scored 5 points;
    6-4 Sr. Andrew Platek -- Awful for 3 years; has stepped up this year, but still a marginal ACC player; 33% from 3; coming off a 2 pt. 1-6 from the field game at FSU
    6-11 Fr. Day'Ron Sharpe -- Projected 1st round NBA pick; broke out for 25 in the win over ND, but has scored 8 or less 8 times this year; another 5 star who has failed to reach his potential
    7-1 Walker Kessler -- Awkward; non-factor in ACC play; fouls a lot

    The analytics: UNC is huge. They are the 2nd biggest team in the ACC (behind only FSU) and 7th biggest in the country as they rotate 4 players 6-10 or bigger. UNC can't shoot. That are DFL in the ACC in effective FG%, 2 PT % (shocking given their size) and have been below average from 3 for the season (31% on the year; #264). They also commit a ton of TO as the Heels are 14th in the ACC in TO% in conference games (WF is last); and the Heels are first in the conference in giving up steals. UNC's one strength on offense is cleaning up offensive rebounds (#1 in the ACC, grabbing 42% of their missed shots; and the Heels miss a lot of shots). On defense, they give up few offensive rebounds (#2 in the ACC in preventing offensive boards), and the Heels block shots #5 in the ACC. UNC plays the 2nd fastest tempo in conference games averaging 71.3 possessions a game.

    Bottom line: UNC's size will give WF lots of problems. Ody, Mucius and Okpomo will need to play big and stay out of foul trouble and try to limit offensive boards surrendered; WF guards will need to board too. UNC has been a terrible shooting team all year, but WF is last in 2 PT FG defense allowing ACC opponents to make a frightening 63% of their 2 point shots in conference games. Keep waiting for Garrison Brooks to go off, but it has not happened yet. KP projects a 77-65 UNC win over 70 possessions. Since beating Charleston and UNLV to start the year UNC has not won a game by more than 12 points all year, including a narrow 6 point win over NC Central. Hope the Heels keep misfiring and committing TOs. Think WF hangs for awhile, but just seems like the Heels size will be too much to overcome. WF loses by 8 to 10.
    Last edited by Pilchard; 01-19-2021 at 02:00 PM.

  2. #2
    Unfortunate u*NC is out of the top 25. Was hoping Wake could deliver that blow.

  3. #3
    UNC isnít very good at all but agree with Pilch that their size across the board is likely to be an issue for our roster as currently constructed.

  4. #4
    We're due to get over the hump and to get into the W column.

    Let's get it done at cheater hill!

  5. #5
    Seems like we've been getting beaten by decent teams hitting some tough shots over good defense down the stretch. UNC doesn't have a player that can really do that, and we're due for a good shooting night or at least Jonah getting hot. It really doesn't matter that we're due, but we are. Okpomo impresses, Deacs hit some outside shots and win by 8.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Deaconblue View Post
    Unfortunate u*NC is out of the top 25. Was hoping Wake could deliver that blow.
    Doesnít matter if theyíre ranked or not. Itís UNC. Deliver the blow. Take them down.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Dekin View Post
    Doesnít matter if theyíre ranked or not. Itís UNC. Deliver the blow. Take them down.
    Oh, agreed on delivering the blow and taking them down. Just a little sweeter if they would have been ranked.

  8. #8
    feels like a repeat of the last four games. hang around, push them a bit, but ultimately wilt late. it would be very on-brand for the breakthrough win to be against State

  9. #9
    State is on a COVID pause right now. They have 5 "members of the program" in quarantine.

    While WF doesn't play State until January 27, there's a chance that game gets postponed. UNC is supposed to play State this weekend. If the UNC/State game gets cancelled, it's possible WF could play UNC again this weekend as WF has already missed two games (and WF only plays UNC once), and if WF/State gets cancelled WF wouldn't play a game for 10 days after UNC tomorrow.

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  12. #12
    I really hope we pull one out, either way Forbes is the real deal. I love listening to his interviews. He spoke to reporters today about how he had to drive a scooter to work for a year at Jr. college because his wife had to have the car to get to work and they didn't have the money to buy another. He has the scooter in his garage(blown engine) just to remind him where he has been. This guy get's it.. When we can go back to games, I'll be driving down from the high country again supporting this team and that guy. I think the future looks real bright for us win or lose this year, but a win against the Tarholes would sure feel good.. Go Deacs.

  13. #13
    Our only path to winning is to shoot lights out. Terrible matchup for the Deacs.

  14. #14
    Sam "Ace" Rothstein
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    We need a win. Any win. Hope it happens tonight.

  15. #15
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    We are only 11.5 point dogs. Although UNC isn't the most talented team, they may be our worst match-up.

    I wonder if Forbes will pressure more than usual to try to create turnovers knowing if they get into half court sets, we will be in trouble.

  16. #16
    Fuck the 'holes and that country bumpkin "aw shucks" coach Roy Williams. Let's get that W baby!

  17. #17
    FUCK THE HOLES.

    Words of wisdom and a beautiful double entendre

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Dkin View Post
    Our only path to winning is to shoot lights out. Terrible matchup for the Deacs.
    Surely Forbes throws some Zone at the Heels, right?

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Buttermaker View Post
    Surely Forbes throws some Zone at the Heels, right?
    We've seen 1-3-1 briefly and maybe some 3-2 in one of the first two games, but Forbes is pretty averse to playing zone. Will be interesting to see if he does.

    Preview of tonight's game (subscriber-only).

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Pilchard View Post
    State is on a COVID pause right now. They have 5 "members of the program" in quarantine.

    While WF doesn't play State until January 27, there's a chance that game gets postponed. UNC is supposed to play State this weekend. If the UNC/State game gets cancelled, it's possible WF could play UNC again this weekend as WF has already missed two games (and WF only plays UNC once), and if WF/State gets cancelled WF wouldn't play a game for 10 days after UNC tomorrow.
    Prescient here: Wake Forest plays Pitt on Saturday night at 6, per Pitt beat reporter Craig Meyer. Working to confirm on Wake's end, but don't think Craig would throw false info out there.

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