KP Report -- Deacs @ the NC State Wolfpack - Wednesday 8 pm ACCN

On Wednesday, our streaking Deacs head to Raleigh riding a one game winning streak against the sliding Wolfpack. Here are the details on our next opponent:

The season: The #68 Pack will head into Wednesday with a 6-5 (2-4) record on a 4 game skid. A mid to late season slide is the norm for NC State during Kevin Keatts 4 year run. In 2019, the Pack started the season on roll 13-1 (#21 KP), but they finished the season 24-12 and in the NIT. In 2020, the Pack started the season 14-5 and climbed as high as #35, but again finished the year 20-12 (#50), and did not look to be in line for an NCAA bid again. This year, Pack started the year 6-1 (2-0) and climbed to #37 in the KP rankings; currently the Pack sit at #68 after losing their last 4. Every coach has his own way of team interaction, but watching the Pack, I never sensed that Keatts' teams love playing for him, which may explain the late season malaise. This season, the Pack owns two top 100 wins: #35 UNC by 3 and #95 BC by 3. The Pack haven't won a game since December 30 as they have had two COVID pauses and have lost consecutive games to #52 Clemson in OT, #99 Miami (at home) by 5, #15 FSU by 32 and #35 UNC by 10 on Saturday.

The starting lineup: against the Heels, the Pack started:

6-0 Sr. Braxton Beverly -- has played at State forever; averaged 16 ppg against WF last year; shooting 40% from 3; only scored in double figures 3 times this year
6-1 Jr. Thomas Allen -- Nebraska transfer; leads State in 3 PT FG% 46%; negative TO/A ratio; scored in double figures twice in last 3
6-5 So. Devon Daniels -- team leader in minutes, points; assists, steals and TOs; scored in double figures in every game, but one; coming off team high 21 against UNC; erratic shooter (31%) from 3
6-7 Jr. Jericole Hellems -- 2nd rebounds and assists per game, first in fouls, fouled out in two of State's six ACC games; 38% from 3
6-10 Sr. DJ Funderburk -- missed almost a month from Dec. 3 to Dec. 30; talented, but doesn't play to his size: only 3 blocks on the season and averaging only 4.8 rpg; shooting 60% from the field; averaging 15 ppg against the ACC; no threat from 3

Off the bench:

6-10 So. Manny Bates -- maybe the Pack's most talented player; 10 points; 6 boards; 7 blocks against UNC on Saturday; shoots 63% from the field; doesn't shoot 3s; leader in blocked shots
6-3. Fr. Cam Hayes -- highest rated 2020 Pack recruit; 40% from 3; 2nd in assists; struggled in ACC play 32% from 2; from Greensboro; played for Team CP3
6-1 Fr. Shakeel Moore -- fan favorite; scored 17 in the December win over UNC; struggled lately; may be in Keatts doghouse; only played 4 minutes at UNC on Saturday; also from Greensboro and Team CP3 (State went local signing 5 players from NC in 2020)


The analytics: Despite their athleticism and size up front, State is the worst defensive team in the ACC (112.4 in defensive efficiency). Keatts likes to pressure the ball (#6 in the ACC in TO%), but if you can beat the pressure, it's a layup line (56% two point D in ACC games), or a an open look from 3 (#12 39% in 3 PT defense). On offense, the Pack is #11 in the ACC in offensive efficiency; the Pack draw fouls (#6 in the ACC in FTA/FGA) and they offensive rebound well (#6). State has been solid from 3 in ACC games (35% #6), but have been just OK from 2 (50% #10) and pathetic from the line -- 66% (#15). The Pack has also been TO prone (#10 in the ACC averaging TOs on 19% of the offensive possessions). State plays the 2nd fastest tempo (70 possessions per game) in conference games.

Bottom line: KP projects a 77-69 Pack win. The team which best handles ball pressure will win. As we all know, to date, WF has struggled against pressure defenses, and State will bring it from the opening tip. One reason why State is so good to start off each season is that many teams are not ready for heavy ball pressure when a season starts, but well-coached teams get better at handling such pressure as the season goes on. As the numbers reveal, State's defense is soft if the opponent can beat the pressure, but WF is DFL in the ACC in offensive TO percentage; so, if the Pack starts turning over WF, the game will be over early. At 2-4 in the ACC, this is a "line in the sand game" for the Pack. After WF, State plays at Cuse (who just blew out VT and Miami) and then UVA. Don't expect WF to be satisfied after getting their first ACC win, but I like WF's chances better in the late season (February 20) rematch as WF will get progressively better at handling aggressive defenses, and by then, the Pack players will likely care even less. Think the Pack will win on Wednesday, but their confidence is low right now. In the event that the game is close late, State could fold.

We will see how much Forbes, Whitt and Williamson learned from the end if the Pitt game about handling pressure.

FWIW, in two games against the Pack last year, Neath averaged 10 ppg and 3.5 apg and 0.5 TOs. Yes, please.

I don't care who succeeds him, as far as I'm concerned State will always be coached by a sweaty, smirking Mark Gottfried.

Pilchard said:

FWIW, in two games against the Pack last year, Neath averaged 10 ppg and 3.5 apg and 0.5 TOs. Yes, please.

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In two losses by a combined 30 points. No, please.

Heck with the ratings, rankings and predictions. Wake has now learned to win. This is a big rivalry game. Just win it.

Dekin said:

Heck with the ratings, rankings and predictions. Wake has now learned to win. This is a big rivalry game. Just win it.

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This. Fuck the nerds. Forbes, his gigantic cock, and the Good Deac's are vibing out of control right now. Deac's by a zillion.

Kenpom needs to stay in his moms basement.

We got this. :thumbsup:

State rarely plays zone, against which Wake has struggled. This one could go either way IMO. Looks to be a pretty important game for State given the four game slide and tougher opponents on the horizon.

WFcatamount22 said:

This. Fuck the nerds. Forbes, his gigantic cock, and the Good Deac's are vibing out of control right now. Deac's by a zillion.

Kenpom needs to stay in his moms basement.

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Yes.

You would think that it will be very hard for Oguama to stay out of foul trouble versus their two bigs. I think it a similar story to the past few games. We will need to hit a high percentage from three to win, and we likely will take a large number of threes rather than attack inside.

Okpomo is a solid fill in. As crazy as it seems, Oguama, Okpomo, and Ingraham may be a solid three headed monster going forward until Forbes lands a star big.

Yeah, Okpomo has a good feel for things defensively and is RAW. Will only get better and better every game. There was a reason Forbes used a scholly on him. Forbes has also mentioned him in a few of his most recent pressers.

Resilient Deac said:

Yeah, Okpomo has a good feel for things defensively and is RAW. Will only get better and better every game. There was a reason Forbes used a scholly on him. Forbes has also mentioned him in a few of his most recent pressers.

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This Covid mess really hindered his development in multiple ways.

PhDeac said:

Okpomo is a solid fill in. As crazy as it seems, Oguama, Okpomo, and Ingraham may be a solid three headed monster going forward until Forbes lands a star big.

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I'm on board with this. Didn't think so heading into January.

If our shooting isn't there, it could be another disappointing night.

12+ threes every game is our sweeet spot

Feels like this will be about our ability to limit turnovers that lead to easy baskets.

And, of course, making shots.

Yeah, 15 or less turnovers is a must!

Dispatch Deac said:

If our shooting isn't there, it could be another disappointing night.

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So a basketball game.

I think we're less dependent on good shooting than we've been in a long time because of the defensive intensity. We're in games without shooting well at all.