Pilchard
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This Saturday, the Deacs host the Miami Hurricanes in a battle to climb out of the bottom on the ACC. Here is the rundown on the Canes.
This season: At the start of the 2020-21 campaign, Miami hoped for better luck staying healthy, but once again, injuries (and/or covid) have crippled the Canes as they have staggered to 6-9 (2-8) record this season. Sitting at #113 in the KP rankings (ahead of only #116 WF in the ACC), the Canes have not played a single game this season with all of their top 8 players available. Starting PG, and pre-season ACC POY candidate, Chris Lykes has missed all, but two games with a severe ankle injury. Starting G-F Kameron McGusty has missed 7 games with various injuries. Top freshman recruit Earl Timberlake has missed 9 games. Starting SF Elijah Olaniyi has missed 5 games. Starting F Matt Cross missed yesterday's blow out loss to FSU with an injury. Of the group just mentioned, only McGusty played in the Canes' most recent game at FSU. Despite the injuries, Miami has had some good moments this year beating #31 Purdue (by 4), #70 NC State (on the road by 5), and #39 L'ville. Recently, however, banged up Miami has been non-competitive losing its last 3 decisively (to #45 Cuse by 26, #84 ND by 14, #13 FSU by 22).
Last night's starting lineup:
6-3 So. Isaiah Wong - leading scorer, 2nd leading rebounder and in assists; Miami's best player, scored in double figures all but once; high volume shooter (with little accuracy) from 3; 7 from 27 from behind the arc over the last three games; 29% on the season from deep
6-5 Sr. Kameron McGusty - Oklahoma transfer, averaged 12 ppg last year, scored 20 and 13 over the last two games; 34% from deep; negative assist to TO ratio; good FT shooter 84%
6-5 So. Harlond Beverley - leads team in assists and steals; can't shoot: 44% from the line; 42% from 2; 16% from 3; missed each of his last 15 three point attempts
6-9 So. Anthony Walker - starts sporadically; offensively challenged: 65% from the line 14% from 3; scored 13 in Wednesday's loss to FSU
7-0 Sr. Nysier Brooks - Cincy transfer; started every game; leading rebounder and in blocked shots; gets high percentage dunks, but is not a scorer (6.7 ppg), no threat from 3
Bench players:
6-11 Jr. Deng Gak; can't score: 26 points in 13 games; marginal rebounder; takes up space
6-2 Sr. Willie Herenton; only played more than 7 minutes once; 6 total points scored on the season
Other key players who may return from injury:
5-7 Sr. PG Chris Lykes: leading returning player in points, assists and steals; hasn't played since December 4; could return at anytime
6-5 Sr. Eljah Olaniyi: Stony Brook transfer; missed Wednesday's game; starter; scored in double figures 6 of last 8 games; strong rebounder; terrible from 3 (18%)
6-7 Fr. Matt Cross: started 9 of 13 games; missed Wednesday's game; shoots 40% from 3 scored 16 against both VT and L'ville
6-6 Fr. Earl Timberlake: scored in double figures against 4 straight ACC opponents before being knocked out of the line-up; excellent offensive rebounder
The analytics: As is apparent from the individual stats referenced above, banged up Miami is an awful offensive team. In conference games, they are DFL in the ACC in offensive efficiency (93.0) and 3 point % (28%); 2nd to last in effective FG% (47% ) and among the worst in FT%, TO% and offensive rebound percentage. The Canes could not crack 60 in any of their last 3 games. Miami hasn't been much better on D as they are #12 in defensive efficiency (106.4) and have been particularly bad at defending the 3 (#14 - 40%). Miami's one strength on defense is that they don't foul much (#2 in defensive FTA per FGA); so, their games are often over quickly (like last night's FSU game). Miami is #6 in the ACC tempo, averaging 69 possessions per game.
Bottom line: If Miami rolls out the same lineup that FSU trucked yesterday, WF should win. Miami had only 2.5 players (Wong, McGusty and Anthony Walker.. kind of) that had an outside chance at scoring. That said, opponents often get healthy just before playing WF; so, if all or some subset of Lykes, Olaniyi, Timberlake and Cross return, Miami could play like the team that was expected to compete for an NCAA bid this year. KP projects a 70-68 WF win (first time KP has projected a WF ACC win). It's clear that Forbes wasn't not happy with the State loss (said it was the most disappointing game of the season); so, I expect the Deacs to be fired up for Saturday's game. Also, Miami doesn't typically play the type of pressure defense that has given WF trouble. Even if Miami returns some of its injured talent, like WF's chances to win. For those that like to take a monetary interest in the outcome, suggest closely following the injury updates on Saturday. If all 4 Miami players remain out, WF and the under would both be strong plays. If not, suggest treading carefully on this game.
This season: At the start of the 2020-21 campaign, Miami hoped for better luck staying healthy, but once again, injuries (and/or covid) have crippled the Canes as they have staggered to 6-9 (2-8) record this season. Sitting at #113 in the KP rankings (ahead of only #116 WF in the ACC), the Canes have not played a single game this season with all of their top 8 players available. Starting PG, and pre-season ACC POY candidate, Chris Lykes has missed all, but two games with a severe ankle injury. Starting G-F Kameron McGusty has missed 7 games with various injuries. Top freshman recruit Earl Timberlake has missed 9 games. Starting SF Elijah Olaniyi has missed 5 games. Starting F Matt Cross missed yesterday's blow out loss to FSU with an injury. Of the group just mentioned, only McGusty played in the Canes' most recent game at FSU. Despite the injuries, Miami has had some good moments this year beating #31 Purdue (by 4), #70 NC State (on the road by 5), and #39 L'ville. Recently, however, banged up Miami has been non-competitive losing its last 3 decisively (to #45 Cuse by 26, #84 ND by 14, #13 FSU by 22).
Last night's starting lineup:
6-3 So. Isaiah Wong - leading scorer, 2nd leading rebounder and in assists; Miami's best player, scored in double figures all but once; high volume shooter (with little accuracy) from 3; 7 from 27 from behind the arc over the last three games; 29% on the season from deep
6-5 Sr. Kameron McGusty - Oklahoma transfer, averaged 12 ppg last year, scored 20 and 13 over the last two games; 34% from deep; negative assist to TO ratio; good FT shooter 84%
6-5 So. Harlond Beverley - leads team in assists and steals; can't shoot: 44% from the line; 42% from 2; 16% from 3; missed each of his last 15 three point attempts
6-9 So. Anthony Walker - starts sporadically; offensively challenged: 65% from the line 14% from 3; scored 13 in Wednesday's loss to FSU
7-0 Sr. Nysier Brooks - Cincy transfer; started every game; leading rebounder and in blocked shots; gets high percentage dunks, but is not a scorer (6.7 ppg), no threat from 3
Bench players:
6-11 Jr. Deng Gak; can't score: 26 points in 13 games; marginal rebounder; takes up space
6-2 Sr. Willie Herenton; only played more than 7 minutes once; 6 total points scored on the season
Other key players who may return from injury:
5-7 Sr. PG Chris Lykes: leading returning player in points, assists and steals; hasn't played since December 4; could return at anytime
6-5 Sr. Eljah Olaniyi: Stony Brook transfer; missed Wednesday's game; starter; scored in double figures 6 of last 8 games; strong rebounder; terrible from 3 (18%)
6-7 Fr. Matt Cross: started 9 of 13 games; missed Wednesday's game; shoots 40% from 3 scored 16 against both VT and L'ville
6-6 Fr. Earl Timberlake: scored in double figures against 4 straight ACC opponents before being knocked out of the line-up; excellent offensive rebounder
The analytics: As is apparent from the individual stats referenced above, banged up Miami is an awful offensive team. In conference games, they are DFL in the ACC in offensive efficiency (93.0) and 3 point % (28%); 2nd to last in effective FG% (47% ) and among the worst in FT%, TO% and offensive rebound percentage. The Canes could not crack 60 in any of their last 3 games. Miami hasn't been much better on D as they are #12 in defensive efficiency (106.4) and have been particularly bad at defending the 3 (#14 - 40%). Miami's one strength on defense is that they don't foul much (#2 in defensive FTA per FGA); so, their games are often over quickly (like last night's FSU game). Miami is #6 in the ACC tempo, averaging 69 possessions per game.
Bottom line: If Miami rolls out the same lineup that FSU trucked yesterday, WF should win. Miami had only 2.5 players (Wong, McGusty and Anthony Walker.. kind of) that had an outside chance at scoring. That said, opponents often get healthy just before playing WF; so, if all or some subset of Lykes, Olaniyi, Timberlake and Cross return, Miami could play like the team that was expected to compete for an NCAA bid this year. KP projects a 70-68 WF win (first time KP has projected a WF ACC win). It's clear that Forbes wasn't not happy with the State loss (said it was the most disappointing game of the season); so, I expect the Deacs to be fired up for Saturday's game. Also, Miami doesn't typically play the type of pressure defense that has given WF trouble. Even if Miami returns some of its injured talent, like WF's chances to win. For those that like to take a monetary interest in the outcome, suggest closely following the injury updates on Saturday. If all 4 Miami players remain out, WF and the under would both be strong plays. If not, suggest treading carefully on this game.
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