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Thread: Totally Unofficial 2020/21 Premier League Thread (NWT)

  1. #241
    Hmm, I'm not sure that's it...of EFC's top 5 goals scorers in the league (excluding defenders):

    DCL's xG is ~10 and he's scored 13 (+3)
    James' xG is ~2.5 and he's scored 5 (+2.5)
    Gylfi's xG is ~2.5 and he's scored 3 (+0.5)
    Richarlison's xG is ~5 and he's scored 2 (-3)
    Doucoure's xG is ~2 and he's scored 2 (0)
    ------------------------------
    xG of these 5 players ~22 and goals scored 25 (+3)



    Contrasted to MUFC's top 5 scorers in the league (excluding defenders):

    Bruno's xG is ~11 and he's scored 13 (+2)
    Rashford's xG is ~7 and he's scored 8 (+1)
    Cavani's xG is ~5 and he's scored 6 (+1)
    Martial's xG is ~6 and he's scored 4 (-2)
    McTominay's xG is ~1 and he's scored 4 (+3)
    ---------------------------
    xG of these 5 players ~30 and goals scored 35 (+5)


    Top 5 scores (excluding defenders) for West Ham -- team 1 place above EFC -- (Soucek, Bowen, Antonio, Haller, Fornals): xG ~ 23; Goals = 25 (+2)
    Note: Included Fornals over Lingard as he's played more minutes, but both have 2 goals. If Lingard used instead of Fornals, West Ham's xG would fall to ~19 so +6 to their actual goals of 25.

    Top 5 scores (excluding defenders) for Spurs -- team 1 place below EFC -- (Kane, Son, Ndombele, Hojbjerg, Lucas Moura): xG is ~20; Goals = 31 (+11)
    Note: Included Hojbjerg and Moura over Lo Celso and Bale as they've played more minutes, but all have 1 goal. Their xG's are similar however: Hoj; 0.5, Moura; 0.9, Lo Celso; 0.8, Bale; 0.6.




    I'm not sure it's the "elite finishing" that's helping Everton's position in the table.
    Last edited by deacvision7; 02-11-2021 at 05:02 PM.
    Football. Bloody Hell.

  2. #242
    Quote Originally Posted by BillBrasky View Post
    lol of course we get Citeh

    But at least itís at home

    Just wish there could be fans

    Goodison would have been buzzing last night

    Itís a weekend match though so thatís fucking sweet. Maybe Iíll be vaccinated and at the pub by then. Probably not.
    Man United away to Leicester is another fun draw for the QFs.
    Football. Bloody Hell.

  3. #243
    Quote Originally Posted by deacvision7 View Post
    Hmm, I'm not sure that's it...of EFC's top 5 goals scorers in the league (excluding defenders):

    DCL's xG is ~10 and he's scored 13 (+3)
    James' xG is ~2.5 and he's scored 5 (+2.5)
    Gylfi's xG is ~2.5 and he's scored 3 (+0.5)
    Richarlison's xG is ~5 and he's scored 2 (-3)
    Doucoure's xG is ~2 and he's scored 2 (0)
    ------------------------------
    xG of these 5 players ~22 and goals scored 25 (+3)



    Contrasted to MUFC's top 5 scorers in the league (excluding defenders):

    Bruno's xG is ~11 and he's scored 13 (+2)
    Rashford's xG is ~7 and he's scored 8 (+1)
    Cavani's xG is ~5 and he's scored 6 (+1)
    Martial's xG is ~6 and he's scored 4 (-2)
    McTominay's xG is ~1 and he's scored 4 (+3)
    ---------------------------
    xG of these 5 players ~30 and goals scored 35 (+5)


    Top 5 scores (excluding defenders) for West Ham -- team 1 place above EFC -- (Soucek, Bowen, Antonio, Haller, Fornals): xG ~ 23; Goals = 25 (+2)
    Note: Included Fornals over Lingard as he's played more minutes, but both have 2 goals. If Lingard used instead of Fornals, West Ham's xG would fall to ~19 so +6 to their actual goals of 25.

    Top 5 scores (excluding defenders) for Spurs -- team 1 place below EFC -- (Kane, Son, Ndombele, Hojbjerg, Lucas Moura): xG is ~20; Goals = 31 (+11)
    Note: Included Hojbjerg and Moura over Lo Celso and Bale as they've played more minutes, but all have 1 goal. Their xG's are similar however: Hoj; 0.5, Moura; 0.9, Lo Celso; 0.8, Bale; 0.6.




    I'm not sure it's the "elite finishing" that's helping Everton's position in the table.
    i formed my opinion on this during the crowded holiday period and admittedly have not revisited the stats, but it does still seem to me that three of our top 5 scorers are overperforming expectations? i'd also like to see all those numbers expressed as npxG too.

  4. #244
    also, watch yesterday and tell me spurs were clinical with their chances and everton weren't

    spurs had the better of the chances for long stretches and didn't finish, and everton scored some nice goals from challenging positions, that was really sort of what spurred this on s

  5. #245
    and really really really i'm mostly forming my opinion on everton based on DCL, because we don't have a reliable scorer except for him

    so i hope his hamstring is ok otherwise we're uuuuucked

  6. #246
    yea on teh season everton's npxG is at 24.5 and we've scored 33

    that puts us fourth bottom in npxGdiff at -8.5

    BUT

    worse than us are spurs! (-9.5), leicester (-10.4) and manchester united (-13.5)

    big difference between xG and npxG, manchester united's xG is 5 higher than non penalty xG, everton's just 1.5 higher. west ham's identical, as they have not been awarded a penalty this season!

  7. #247
    what are the profiles of forwards on those clubs: everton, spurs, leicester, manchester united?

    great finishers, to a club, especially looking at top scorers.

    liverpool actually underperforming xG, though overperforming npxG. their forwards dive a lot and get loads of penalties.

  8. #248
    everton also have the highest shot on target % in the league

    calvert lewin first in the division at 1.58 in SoT per 90, and second in shot on target % at 58.5%

    goals per shot leader in the division is your boy scott mctominay, .33 (also fourth highest in the division in goals above expectation, lol)
    Last edited by TownieDeac; 02-11-2021 at 05:50 PM.

  9. #249
    Quote Originally Posted by TownieDeac View Post
    like to see all those numbers expressed as npxG too.
    EFC: Richy's npxG is 4.1 compared with 4.8 xG -- he's scored 1 penalty and 1 non-penalty goal. None of the other 4 players have attempted a penalty. So the differences stay about the same with Richy still being about a -3 (-2.8 : -3.1).

    MUFC: Bruno's npxG is 5.4 compared with 10.7 xG -- he's scored 6 penalties and 7 non-penalty goals. None of the other 4 players have attempted a penalty. So the difference comes down some with Bruno's +/- going from +2.3 to +1.6.

    WHUFC: haven't had a penalty all season so their numbers don't move.

    THFC: Kane's npxG is 8.4 compared with 10.6 xG -- he's scored 3 penalties and 10 non-penalty goals. None of the other 4 players have attempted a penalty. So the difference comes down some with Kane's +/- going from +2.4 to +1.6.
    Football. Bloody Hell.

  10. #250
    Quote Originally Posted by TownieDeac View Post
    what are the profiles of forwards on those clubs: everton, spurs, leicester, manchester united?

    great finishers, to a club, especially looking at top scorers.

    liverpool actually underperforming xG, though overperforming npxG. their forwards dive a lot and get loads of penalties.
    Don't tell Jurgen!
    Football. Bloody Hell.

  11. #251
    Quote Originally Posted by TownieDeac View Post

    goals per shot leader in the division is your boy scott mctominay, .33 (also fourth highest in the division in goals above expectation, lol)
    McHottie is a baller, yo
    Football. Bloody Hell.

  12. #252
    Son is nearly 6 goals above expectation and 2 assists above expectation, wow.

  13. #253
    10 years ago today. Wonder what the xG was on this shot? Do they even have enough data on overhead kicks from that distance and behind the player such as this one?

    What a fucking goal it was. Bachelor dv7 woke up girlfriend (now wife) screaming like a mad man in my old apartment. She was sooooo mad at me but I couldn't give a damn. What. A. Goal!

    Football. Bloody Hell.

  14. #254


    have watched this exact goal a lot of times, the ball from nani isn't the most inviting to strike, how rooney even thinks of pulling this off is completely beyond me

    around 1:20 in this video you get an absolutely priceless fergie reaction

    think he's saying "oh fucking hell"

  15. #255
    Going to need more coffee.

  16. #256
    Rusty Larue
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    Vardy isnít going to keep missing these chances.

  17. #257
    Rusty Larue
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    Fucked by the lines there.

  18. #258
    Smokey room humming with activity

  19. #259
    Rusty Larue
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    Alisson is broken.

  20. #260
    Someone drug test Alisson

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