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Totally Unofficial 2021/22 Premier League Thread (NWT)

Hmm, I'm not sure that's it...of EFC's top 5 goals scorers in the league (excluding defenders):

DCL's xG is ~10 and he's scored 13 (+3)
James' xG is ~2.5 and he's scored 5 (+2.5)
Gylfi's xG is ~2.5 and he's scored 3 (+0.5)
Richarlison's xG is ~5 and he's scored 2 (-3)
Doucoure's xG is ~2 and he's scored 2 (0)
------------------------------
xG of these 5 players ~22 and goals scored 25 (+3)



Contrasted to MUFC's top 5 scorers in the league (excluding defenders):

Bruno's xG is ~11 and he's scored 13 (+2)
Rashford's xG is ~7 and he's scored 8 (+1)
Cavani's xG is ~5 and he's scored 6 (+1)
Martial's xG is ~6 and he's scored 4 (-2)
McTominay's xG is ~1 and he's scored 4 (+3)
---------------------------
xG of these 5 players ~30 and goals scored 35 (+5)


Top 5 scores (excluding defenders) for West Ham -- team 1 place above EFC -- (Soucek, Bowen, Antonio, Haller, Fornals): xG ~ 23; Goals = 25 (+2)
Note: Included Fornals over Lingard as he's played more minutes, but both have 2 goals. If Lingard used instead of Fornals, West Ham's xG would fall to ~19 so +6 to their actual goals of 25.

Top 5 scores (excluding defenders) for Spurs -- team 1 place below EFC -- (Kane, Son, Ndombele, Hojbjerg, Lucas Moura): xG is ~20; Goals = 31 (+11)
Note: Included Hojbjerg and Moura over Lo Celso and Bale as they've played more minutes, but all have 1 goal. Their xG's are similar however: Hoj; 0.5, Moura; 0.9, Lo Celso; 0.8, Bale; 0.6.




I'm not sure it's the "elite finishing" that's helping Everton's position in the table.
 
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lol of course we get Citeh

But at least it’s at home

Just wish there could be fans

Goodison would have been buzzing last night

It’s a weekend match though so that’s fucking sweet. Maybe I’ll be vaccinated and at the pub by then. Probably not.

Man United away to Leicester is another fun draw for the QFs.
 
Hmm, I'm not sure that's it...of EFC's top 5 goals scorers in the league (excluding defenders):

DCL's xG is ~10 and he's scored 13 (+3)
James' xG is ~2.5 and he's scored 5 (+2.5)
Gylfi's xG is ~2.5 and he's scored 3 (+0.5)
Richarlison's xG is ~5 and he's scored 2 (-3)
Doucoure's xG is ~2 and he's scored 2 (0)
------------------------------
xG of these 5 players ~22 and goals scored 25 (+3)



Contrasted to MUFC's top 5 scorers in the league (excluding defenders):

Bruno's xG is ~11 and he's scored 13 (+2)
Rashford's xG is ~7 and he's scored 8 (+1)
Cavani's xG is ~5 and he's scored 6 (+1)
Martial's xG is ~6 and he's scored 4 (-2)
McTominay's xG is ~1 and he's scored 4 (+3)
---------------------------
xG of these 5 players ~30 and goals scored 35 (+5)


Top 5 scores (excluding defenders) for West Ham -- team 1 place above EFC -- (Soucek, Bowen, Antonio, Haller, Fornals): xG ~ 23; Goals = 25 (+2)
Note: Included Fornals over Lingard as he's played more minutes, but both have 2 goals. If Lingard used instead of Fornals, West Ham's xG would fall to ~19 so +6 to their actual goals of 25.

Top 5 scores (excluding defenders) for Spurs -- team 1 place below EFC -- (Kane, Son, Ndombele, Hojbjerg, Lucas Moura): xG is ~20; Goals = 31 (+11)
Note: Included Hojbjerg and Moura over Lo Celso and Bale as they've played more minutes, but all have 1 goal. Their xG's are similar however: Hoj; 0.5, Moura; 0.9, Lo Celso; 0.8, Bale; 0.6.




I'm not sure it's the "elite finishing" that's helping Everton's position in the table.

i formed my opinion on this during the crowded holiday period and admittedly have not revisited the stats, but it does still seem to me that three of our top 5 scorers are overperforming expectations? i'd also like to see all those numbers expressed as npxG too.
 
also, watch yesterday and tell me spurs were clinical with their chances and everton weren't

spurs had the better of the chances for long stretches and didn't finish, and everton scored some nice goals from challenging positions, that was really sort of what spurred this on s
 
and really really really i'm mostly forming my opinion on everton based on DCL, because we don't have a reliable scorer except for him

so i hope his hamstring is ok otherwise we're fuuuuuuuuucked
 
yea on teh season everton's npxG is at 24.5 and we've scored 33

that puts us fourth bottom in npxGdiff at -8.5

BUT

worse than us are spurs! (-9.5), leicester (-10.4) and manchester united (-13.5)

big difference between xG and npxG, manchester united's xG is 5 higher than non penalty xG, everton's just 1.5 higher. west ham's identical, as they have not been awarded a penalty this season!
 
what are the profiles of forwards on those clubs: everton, spurs, leicester, manchester united?

great finishers, to a club, especially looking at top scorers.

liverpool actually underperforming xG, though overperforming npxG. their forwards dive a lot and get loads of penalties.
 
everton also have the highest shot on target % in the league

calvert lewin first in the division at 1.58 in SoT per 90, and second in shot on target % at 58.5%

goals per shot leader in the division is your boy scott mctominay, .33 (also fourth highest in the division in goals above expectation, lol)
 
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like to see all those numbers expressed as npxG too.

EFC: Richy's npxG is 4.1 compared with 4.8 xG -- he's scored 1 penalty and 1 non-penalty goal. None of the other 4 players have attempted a penalty. So the differences stay about the same with Richy still being about a -3 (-2.8 : -3.1).

MUFC: Bruno's npxG is 5.4 compared with 10.7 xG -- he's scored 6 penalties and 7 non-penalty goals. None of the other 4 players have attempted a penalty. So the difference comes down some with Bruno's +/- going from +2.3 to +1.6.

WHUFC: haven't had a penalty all season so their numbers don't move.

THFC: Kane's npxG is 8.4 compared with 10.6 xG -- he's scored 3 penalties and 10 non-penalty goals. None of the other 4 players have attempted a penalty. So the difference comes down some with Kane's +/- going from +2.4 to +1.6.
 
what are the profiles of forwards on those clubs: everton, spurs, leicester, manchester united?

great finishers, to a club, especially looking at top scorers.

liverpool actually underperforming xG, though overperforming npxG. their forwards dive a lot and get loads of penalties.

Don't tell Jurgen!
 
Son is nearly 6 goals above expectation and 2 assists above expectation, wow.
 
10 years ago today. Wonder what the xG was on this shot? Do they even have enough data on overhead kicks from that distance and behind the player such as this one?

What a fucking goal it was. Bachelor dv7 woke up girlfriend (now wife) screaming like a mad man in my old apartment. She was sooooo mad at me but I couldn't give a damn. What. A. Goal!

 


have watched this exact goal a lot of times, the ball from nani isn't the most inviting to strike, how rooney even thinks of pulling this off is completely beyond me

around 1:20 in this video you get an absolutely priceless fergie reaction

think he's saying "oh fucking hell"
 
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