Pilchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 3, 2011
- Messages
- 17,093
- Reaction score
- 6,341
This Wednesday night, our rested Deacs fly to Beantown to play the BC Eagles at Conte Forum. Here is the BC breakdown:
This season: The pandemic likely saved Jim Christian's job after last season (IIRC, Forbes and PSU's Jim Ferry were the only two new hires in a Power 6 conference last off-season, and the PSU change was not performance-related). Doesn't look like Mr. Christian will be keeping his job after this season. In 7 years at BC, JC is 26-92 in the ACC; yikes. This season BC sits at an ugly 3-11 (1-7). BC has one top 100 win on the season (by 5 over #74 Rhode Island in November). BC's only other wins came against #344 Maine and injury-ravaged #120 Miami. The Eagles do have a few nail-biting losses: to #42 Minnesota in OT, #68 St. John's by 4, #71 NC State by 3, and #35 Duke by 1 (BC led almost the entire game). Most recently, BC missed 5 games due to a large COVID-spread in the BC program and then COVID issues for FSU as well. BC first game back after the pause was tough as 4 of the 8 players in Eagles' regular rotation missed the game. As a result, on Saturday against NC State, BC was forced to rely on non-productive scholarship players and walk-ons throughout the game. State's 81-65 winning margin was not indicative of the rout as the Pack went on 37-3 run in the first half to lead 39-8 late in the first half. At that point, State, who has its own injury issues, took its foot off the gas. BC ended Saturday's game on a 15-3 run in walk-on v. walk-on competition to make a blowout kind of respectable.
The line-up: Against NC State, BC started:
6-1 Sr. Rich Kelly: Quinnipiac transfer; played against WF in November 2017 (3 points); currently tied for BC team lead in 3s and 3 PT% (39.7%); 2nd in assists per game; scored 27 in the win over Miami
6-3 So. Jay Heath: leading scorer (14 ppg); negative assist to TO ratio; 35% from 3; averaging 20 ppg in the last 3; he's a piece that BC can build on
6-7 So. Kamari Williams: a stiff; only played against State because of COVID; averaging 0.9 ppg; 2 for 12 from 3 on the year; when he's in the game; help off of Kamari
6-7 So. CJ Felder: started every game; 2nd in rebounds (5.5 ppg); first in blocks; up and down; 24 points against Duke; 33% from 3; 1 for 7 from 3 against State
6-8 Sr. Steffon Mitchell: starter; leading rebounder 7 rbg; struggled early in the season; averaging 14 ppg over the 4; brother transferred from BC to Maryland;
Off the bench:
6-11 Sr. Luka Kraljevic: scholly player in name only, played 6 ineffective minutes against the Pack; injury issues; has played 12 minutes all season; non-factor
A bunch of walk-ons, who look and play like walk-ons
Out against State because of Covid and/or injury:
6-2 So. Wynston Tabbs: starter; 2nd leading scorer; tied for leader in 3s and 3 point % (40%),
6-3 Jr. Makai Ashton-Langford; starter; Providence transfer; leader in assists per game; leader in steals
6-5 Fr. DeMarr Langford; part-time starter; scored in double figures against UVA and Duke;
6-9 Sr. James Karnik; Lehigh transfer; big off the bench; 3rd in rebounds per game;
Analytics: BC is 12th in the ACC in offensive efficiency; the Eagles rely on 3 point shooting as 42% of their points in ACC games come from behind the arc (#2 in the ACC); BC has almost no inside game as the Eagles are #14 in the conference in % of points from inside the arc, and they shoot only 48% on 2 point shots (#12 in the ACC); BC is also TO-prone committing at TO on 20% of their offensive possessions (#12 in the ACC). BC is awful on defense. Currently, BC is DFL in the ACC in defensive efficiency (111.4). They are particularly weak at defending the paint allowing ACC opponents to shoot 55% on their 2 point shots; the Eagles are also don't defend the offensive glass as conference opponents grab 31% of the rebounds on missed shots (#13 in the conference). BC does try to play up tempo as they are #2 in the conference in possessions per game.
Bottom line: KP projects a 74-71 BC win, but that projection does not take into account any potential COVID absences. If BC is limited to same roster that State faced on Saturday, a rested-WF should win this game. Even if BC gets some of its players back, the amount of time missed (by Wednesday, the Eagles will have played once in 25 days) should hamper BC's timing and conditioning. Also, got to believe that Coach Forbes will have WF ready after 7 days off from the Deacs' disappointing performance at ND (the defensive gameplan against BC is to run them off the 3 point line; no open looks; there's no one on BC's roster that can damage WF inside). Further, would think that extra time off will mean that Ian DuBose will return to play for the Deacs after his COVID pause. Even without the COVID issues, BC is a good matchup for WF given BC's lack of size (Ody should have his best game) and limited roster. Add in BC's COVID issues, and the fact that WF comes in rested and angry after a loss, and this is the best spot WF will have all year. No excuses. WF should win this game, giving Coach Forbes his first conference road W.
FWIW, I perused the BC message board, and it brought back memories of last year's OG Board. They all know that Jim Christian is gone. Fans grasping for Beilein or Matta's return to college hoop. Keep grasping Eagles.
This season: The pandemic likely saved Jim Christian's job after last season (IIRC, Forbes and PSU's Jim Ferry were the only two new hires in a Power 6 conference last off-season, and the PSU change was not performance-related). Doesn't look like Mr. Christian will be keeping his job after this season. In 7 years at BC, JC is 26-92 in the ACC; yikes. This season BC sits at an ugly 3-11 (1-7). BC has one top 100 win on the season (by 5 over #74 Rhode Island in November). BC's only other wins came against #344 Maine and injury-ravaged #120 Miami. The Eagles do have a few nail-biting losses: to #42 Minnesota in OT, #68 St. John's by 4, #71 NC State by 3, and #35 Duke by 1 (BC led almost the entire game). Most recently, BC missed 5 games due to a large COVID-spread in the BC program and then COVID issues for FSU as well. BC first game back after the pause was tough as 4 of the 8 players in Eagles' regular rotation missed the game. As a result, on Saturday against NC State, BC was forced to rely on non-productive scholarship players and walk-ons throughout the game. State's 81-65 winning margin was not indicative of the rout as the Pack went on 37-3 run in the first half to lead 39-8 late in the first half. At that point, State, who has its own injury issues, took its foot off the gas. BC ended Saturday's game on a 15-3 run in walk-on v. walk-on competition to make a blowout kind of respectable.
The line-up: Against NC State, BC started:
6-1 Sr. Rich Kelly: Quinnipiac transfer; played against WF in November 2017 (3 points); currently tied for BC team lead in 3s and 3 PT% (39.7%); 2nd in assists per game; scored 27 in the win over Miami
6-3 So. Jay Heath: leading scorer (14 ppg); negative assist to TO ratio; 35% from 3; averaging 20 ppg in the last 3; he's a piece that BC can build on
6-7 So. Kamari Williams: a stiff; only played against State because of COVID; averaging 0.9 ppg; 2 for 12 from 3 on the year; when he's in the game; help off of Kamari
6-7 So. CJ Felder: started every game; 2nd in rebounds (5.5 ppg); first in blocks; up and down; 24 points against Duke; 33% from 3; 1 for 7 from 3 against State
6-8 Sr. Steffon Mitchell: starter; leading rebounder 7 rbg; struggled early in the season; averaging 14 ppg over the 4; brother transferred from BC to Maryland;
Off the bench:
6-11 Sr. Luka Kraljevic: scholly player in name only, played 6 ineffective minutes against the Pack; injury issues; has played 12 minutes all season; non-factor
A bunch of walk-ons, who look and play like walk-ons
Out against State because of Covid and/or injury:
6-2 So. Wynston Tabbs: starter; 2nd leading scorer; tied for leader in 3s and 3 point % (40%),
6-3 Jr. Makai Ashton-Langford; starter; Providence transfer; leader in assists per game; leader in steals
6-5 Fr. DeMarr Langford; part-time starter; scored in double figures against UVA and Duke;
6-9 Sr. James Karnik; Lehigh transfer; big off the bench; 3rd in rebounds per game;
Analytics: BC is 12th in the ACC in offensive efficiency; the Eagles rely on 3 point shooting as 42% of their points in ACC games come from behind the arc (#2 in the ACC); BC has almost no inside game as the Eagles are #14 in the conference in % of points from inside the arc, and they shoot only 48% on 2 point shots (#12 in the ACC); BC is also TO-prone committing at TO on 20% of their offensive possessions (#12 in the ACC). BC is awful on defense. Currently, BC is DFL in the ACC in defensive efficiency (111.4). They are particularly weak at defending the paint allowing ACC opponents to shoot 55% on their 2 point shots; the Eagles are also don't defend the offensive glass as conference opponents grab 31% of the rebounds on missed shots (#13 in the conference). BC does try to play up tempo as they are #2 in the conference in possessions per game.
Bottom line: KP projects a 74-71 BC win, but that projection does not take into account any potential COVID absences. If BC is limited to same roster that State faced on Saturday, a rested-WF should win this game. Even if BC gets some of its players back, the amount of time missed (by Wednesday, the Eagles will have played once in 25 days) should hamper BC's timing and conditioning. Also, got to believe that Coach Forbes will have WF ready after 7 days off from the Deacs' disappointing performance at ND (the defensive gameplan against BC is to run them off the 3 point line; no open looks; there's no one on BC's roster that can damage WF inside). Further, would think that extra time off will mean that Ian DuBose will return to play for the Deacs after his COVID pause. Even without the COVID issues, BC is a good matchup for WF given BC's lack of size (Ody should have his best game) and limited roster. Add in BC's COVID issues, and the fact that WF comes in rested and angry after a loss, and this is the best spot WF will have all year. No excuses. WF should win this game, giving Coach Forbes his first conference road W.
FWIW, I perused the BC message board, and it brought back memories of last year's OG Board. They all know that Jim Christian is gone. Fans grasping for Beilein or Matta's return to college hoop. Keep grasping Eagles.
Last edited:
