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KP Report: WF at FSU : Noon Saturday -- RSN

Pilchard

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This Saturday, the Noles, off their second COVID shutdown of the season, host the Deacs for a nooner (note: this is WF's 8th conference road game; WF has played 4 home games; thanks ACC). Here is the summary of the WF's talented opponent:

This season: FSU is a dangerous team, and are a legit pick for a deep NCAA tourney run. Currently, the #17 Noles sit at 10-3 (6-2). FSU has 7 top 10 wins: #26 Indiana, #28 Florida, #61 GT, #73 NC State (by 32), #38 UNC, #33 L'ville, #48 Clemson. The Noles are coming off a loss at GT. FSU has missed five ACC games over two different shutdowns. Saturday's game will be only FSU's 6th game in 45 days. Noles returned to practice yesterday (Wednesday) and expect to have the full roster available for Saturday's game. As noted above, after their last COVID pause, the Noles returned to play by demolishing NC State by 32.

The lineup: The Noles are huge (#1 in the nation in height) and ridiculously deep (#17 in the nation in bench minutes), seven different players have started, and when the full roster is available, the Noles will utilize 11, or even 12, players in its rotation. Last time out (January 30), the Noles started:


6-4 Sr. Rayquan Evans: JUCO transfer; 47% shooter from 3; 85% from the FT line; scored in double figures 3 times; 24 points against NC State; leader in steals
6-5 Sr. MJ Walker: 4th year in the program; 3 year starter; leader in minutes, turnovers and scoring; 45% from 3; 90% from the line;
6-8 Jr. Wyatt Wilkes: redshirted as a frosh; 33% from 3; limited minutes; good passer; scored season high 13 in win at L'ville
6-8 (260 pounds) Jr. Raiquan Gray: redshirted as a soph; big and strong; played well recently averaging 14 ppg over the last 5 games; leader in boards; limited threat from 3 (25%)
7-1 So. Balsa Koprivica: from Serbia; started every game; leader in blocks; 2nd leading rebounder; shoots 59% from the field; no threat from 3;

Even more length and athleticism off the bench:

6-5 Sr. Nate Jack: JUCO transfer; from Canada; limited minutes; scored 18 against State; 38% from 3; shooter rep
6-6 Jr. Anthony Polite: redshirted; dad played for FSU in the 90s; starter until suffering an injury against UNC; expected to return against WF; shooting 53% from 3 (8th in the country); good rebounder
6-6 Jr. Sardaar Calhoun: JUCO transfer; 45% from 3; averaging 10 ppg over the last 3; 8 for 8 from the line on the season
6-9 Fr. Scottie Barnes: projected lottery pick, can play any position on the floor; hit the game winner to beat Indiana; 30% from 3; team leader in assists; 2 to 1 A/TO ratio; stud
6-9 Jr. Malik Osborne: Rice transfer; 2nd in rebounds; 3rd in blocks; limited from 3 (23%)
7-2 Sr. Tanor Ngom: from Senegal by way of Canada; played 3 years of college hoop in Canada; limited minutes for FSU; shooting 71% from the field and 80% from the line; FSU seems to produce endless interchangeable 7 footers


Analytics: Scary team. They are the #1 offensive team and the #3 defensive team in the ACC. In conference games, FSU shoots a ridiculous 41% from 3 (#1); they have 4 players shooting 45% or better from 3; even so, the Noles also lead the ACC in 2 PT% (56%); they even shoot FTs well (78% #3 in the ACC); FSU's one weakness on O is that the turn the ball over a lot (21.5% TO rate; DFL in the ACC). Defensively, FSU is athletic and big; so, they are tough to score on as the Noles are #1 in the ACC in 2 PT defense (47%) and hard to shoot over (#3 in 3 point defense; 31%); they also block a lot of shots (#2 in the ACC in defensive block percentage); as noted above, FSU is #1 in the ACC and the country in height; and #1 in the ACC in bench minutes. FSU likes to push the tempo as the Noles are #4 in the conference in tempo (69 possessions per game).

The bottom line: The Deacs are up against it. FSU has NBA height and athleticism, and they shoot the ball better than anyone else in the conference. Plus, they are mature; loaded with juniors and seniors, many of whom have redshirted; they all accept their roles. Leonard Hamilton has his system in place, and they only seem to be getting better. This is a team with the talent to push Baylor and Gonzaga if they are hitting shots (which they often do). Perhaps, not the best matchup for our pesky Deacs. The Deacs do have a couple small factors in their favor: a) FSU hosts UVA on Monday, which may decide first place for the regular season; Noles will be looking ahead; b) FSU had not practiced for two weeks until yesterday (then again, the last time off a shutdown, the Nole annihilated NC State); also FSU plays so many players that conditioning may not be a huge factor as Hamilton can rotate players throughout. KP projects a 78-65 FSU win; if FSU plays to their ability, this game could get ugly quickly; before the loss to GT, FSU had won its last 5 ACC games by an average of 19 ppg. WF has some winnable games upcoming; this doesn't appear to be one of them.
 
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I can see Ody and Okpomo both getting into foul trouble in this game and Wake needing to play small ball. However, looks like FSU could match that with their deep bench.
 
Yeah there are teams we can hang with this year but this doesn’t have the looks of a competitive game at all on paper. Their three point shooting scares the hell out of me.
 
Yeah there are teams we can hang with this year but this doesn’t have the looks of a competitive game at all on paper. Their three point shooting scares the hell out of me.

And they have an armada of 7 footers to do damage from in close. (59% and 71% from the field). Also a 6-9 guy is their leader in assists.
 
And they have an armada of 7 footers to do damage from in close. (59% and 71% from the field). Also a 6-9 guy is their leader in assists.

None of it sounds good!
 
FSU has an 11 player rotation with no one shorter than 6-5. If they want to go big, they can play:

6-9 PG Scottie Barnes
6-8 SG Sardaar Calhoun
6-8 SF Wyatt Wilkes
6-9 (260) PF Raiquan Gray
7-1 Balsa Koprica

FSU doesn't have the option of a small lineup.
 
DuBose, Massoud, and Mucius will be the only guys that can actually get a shot over FSU's athletes, so they'll have to combine for like 70 to give us a shot. Everyone else play defense, box out, and try not to turn the ball over.
 
I said this in the BC postgame thread, but I'll take FSU and the over.

I don't know what the line is and it doesn't really matter. This has to be our worst matchup in the league.
 
I do not feel good about this one.

Hope everyone can stay healthy! The schedule beyond FSU looks favorable.
 
I said this in the BC postgame thread, but I'll take FSU and the over.

I don't know what the line is and it doesn't really matter. This has to be our worst matchup in the league.

Agree but then how the heck did Clemson beat them by 10 with Sims getting 8?
and GT by 11 with both shooting less than 30% on 3s and FSU rebounding GT by 10? GT starters played 90% of the minutes.
 
I said this in the BC postgame thread, but I'll take FSU and the over.

I don't know what the line is and it doesn't really matter. This has to be our worst matchup in the league.

TITCR. Get some more minutes for DuBose to get back in game shape. Get Okpomo some extended run (we need to develop the depth). Get Whitt some good experience. Stay healthy. Enjoy the flight home.
 
Another exhibition game that will provide some quality teaching moments for Forbes and staff.
 
Play smart, play hard, don’t quit.
That’s all I ask for this game.
 
Some other random things about this game:

FSU has played 13 games... 10 home and 3 road. Remaining schedule is 4 home, 3 road... So they've basically had the opposite scheduling fortune of Wake Forest. If the schedule holds, FSU will play 15 ACC games - 9 home, 6 road. Wake will play 18 ACC games - 8 home, 10 road.

This is the 2nd time this season where Wake has played 3 in a row on the road. In January, a 79-68 loss @ Duke was road game #3 (GT UVA DUKE).

Potential look ahead game for FSU, who plays UVA on Monday in a #1 vs #2 ACC matchup.

Our best hope is that FSU comes out flat/rusty after having ~2 weeks off and we perhaps catch them looking ahead to UVA.

Basically, I am trying to figure out if I take FSU for just the 1H or the entire game... Or maybe wait until halftime to do the 2H.
 
"#1 in the nation in height"

I'd be surprised if there was a school with a taller team, on average, over the past decade
 
The stars align and 3 of our guys go off from 3. Noles never know what hit them.
 
FSU always seems to have a ton of interchangeable tall athletic guys. They weren't always the most skilled but Hamilton has improved that over time to go along with their height. But now, they also have two guys in the starting lineup named Raiquan/Rayquan. Hamilton's cloning technology has now reached Mk IV.
 
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