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KP Report: The Rematch - Duke at WF - Wednesday 8:30 pm ACCN

Pilchard

Pilchard

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The road-weary Deacs play just their 3rd home game in a month as WF hosts Duke this Wednesday night. Here is the link to the previous KP report on Duke: https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/32774-KP-Report-WF-Duke-Noon-Saturday-ACCN

Here is an Blue Devils update to that report:

The schedule: Since beating WF on January 9, the Devils have staggered to a 3-6 mark over the last 9 games. After the win over the Deacs, Duke lost 4 straight road games (@ VT, @ Pitt, @ L'ville, and @ Miami), until dominating State this past Saturday in a 69-53 Devils' win. Over those 9 games, Duke has dropped from a #16 KP rating on January 8 to #36, and Duke needs to finish strong to avoid missing their first NCAA tournament in 24 years (think about this: Randolph Childress was WF's PG and Tim Duncan led the Deacs' in "paint touches" the last time Duke missed the NCAAs). After WF on Wednesday, Duke hosts UVA, Cuse and L'vile, and then finishes the regular season at GT and at UNC; all losable games for the Devils. Duke likely needs to win 4 of its last 6 regular season games, and then a game in the ACC tourney to get in position to dance.

The lineup: Duke played its best game of the season last time out blitzing State early (Duke led 33-13) to cruise to a 16 point road win in Raleigh. Duke started:


6-1 Fr. Jeremy Roach - 2nd in assists and fouls; can't shoot 25% from 3, but hits 62% from 2; only scored 2 points against State
6-2 Fr. DJ Steward - coming off his highest rated KP Game against State: 12 points 4 assists; shooting 37% for 2; scored in double figures 7 games in a row
6-5 So. Wendell Moore - up and down; scored 24 against ND and 25 against BC scored 5 or less eight times; 29% from 3
6-9 So. Matthew Hurt - leading scorer and rebounder; shooting 44% from 3; scored in double figures every game, but one (UNC); shot 6 of 7 from 3 against State this past weekend
7-0 Fr. Mark Williams - has been a non-factor all year, but erupted for a season-high 13 points against State; leads team in blocks

Off the bench, Duke primarily used:

6-2 Sr. Jordan Goldwire - 3rd in minutes; good defender; limited offense (6 ppg); did score his career high (14 points) last time against WF
6-8 Fr. Jaemyn Brakefield - essentially had not played in a month (since Jalen Johnson's return); played 14 minutes of mostly garbage time against State; 6 points and 5 boards
6-9 Fr. F/C Jalen Johnson - missed a month with an injury, but hasn't lived up to the lottery pick hype; 8 for 18 from 3 (44%); had a monster game at Pitt 24 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists, but has been inconsistent

Also, the annoying Joey Baker has been a non-factor all year; he didn't play in the win against State.

Analytics: In conference play, Duke has been solid offensively (#3), but weak defensively (#11). Prior to holding State to 53 on Saturday, the Devils gave up 91 and 93 in losses to UNC and ND. Duke is 2nd to last in the conference in effective FG% defense (56.4%) and has been DFL in defending the 3 point shot, surrendering 40% to opponents behind the arc. Of concern to WF, Duke forces TOs as they are 3rd in the ACC in defensive TO %. Offensively, Duke has been tough to stop inside in conference play shooting 54% on 2 point shots and grabbing 33% of available offensive rebounds (#3 in the ACC). An aberration for Blue Devil basketball, this team doesn't draw many fouls as they are 2nd to last in the ACC in FTA per FGA.

Bottom line: KP projects a 75-70 Duke win (69 possessions); 31% chance for a Deacon win. With a bandwagon fanbase, most Dookies abandoned ship long ago, but this Devil team still has a lot of talent, and didn't have perhaps their best player, Jalen Johnson, for a month. While Duke is a crappy defensive team, they also have had some bad luck as ACC teams have shot an unsustainable 40% from deep against Duke. The big win over State may be the game that turns the momentum for the Devils. Like Duke, WF is undervalued (IIRC, WF has covered 9 of its last 11 games; including the OT loss at Tallahassee as a 11 point dog); WF is also getting better as WF has had perhaps its best player, Ian DuBose, return from injury/covid. Also, WF has played well at home winning its last two and covering its last 3. Tough game to pick as Duke does bring pressure defense which WF has not handled well, and WF has not defended the paint well (DFL in the ACC in 2 PT FG% defense) and that's where Duke gets most of its points. Give a slight lean to WF plus the points and the over (the total should be around 145; WF scoring is up with DuBose back; last February Duke and WF combined for 214 points in Brandon Childress's moment in the sun as WF beat Duke in 2 OTs), but a narrow Duke win where late FTs give the Devils the cover would not surprise either.
 
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"and didn't have perhaps their best player, Jalen Johnson, for a month.'


Sounds as if Dook won't have Johnson on Wednesday either ... or for the rest of the season ...
 
I saw on KenPom that they are one of a few teams actually below us on “luck” (we are like 335 and they are 345ish). We’ll see feels like one we could steal.
 
Well, Coach K will still be enriched by his relationship with Jalen Johnson as this is what K is really all about...
 
 
Excited to see how the Deacs respond to such a close loss on Saturday. Getting a win at FSU would have been huge but in terms of forming an identity for the program I think a loss like that might actually help even more. So many times over the last few years games have either been blowout losses to good teams or horrendous losses to teams we have no business losing to. Both of those types of losses contribute nothing to building a team that plays for each other. Blowouts or embarrassing losses allow players to develop the idea that their own stats are more important than the team. A close loss to a good team like FSU is a feeling the players won't want to have again, and my hope is they will play tough and together to make sure they come out on the right side next time, knowing that when they play up to coach's identity they can hang with anybody.
 
Do you pay big bucks to Jalen Johnson? He has left his last 3 teams without playing an entire season. Even in the pros, you have to buy in at some point.
 
At least only one Jalen Johnson available for this game so the announcers won't get confused!
 
Columns like this warm my heart...

 
DeacsATS said:
Columns like this warm my heart...

Click to expand...

This line got me = "He didn’t come to Durham to win championships, or hang banners, or be part of ‘The Brotherhood’." What a crock of shit. Duke piles up 5 star one and dones, could not care less about their development and then is surprised when one is about his own career. No comment on Jalen Johnson, but nice to see karma finally come around for Duke.
 
Just amazing the number of 5 stars that have crashed and burned in that program. This is going to be the 6th straight year with no Final 4s for Duke despite having a top 4 (usually top 2) recruiting class every year. You can now count on Duke under-performing its recruiting and pre-season rankings every year. Yet, the program is essentially beyond reproach.
 
I'm glad we don't have First-World problems like 5 stars burning out, or six whole years without a Final 4 visit. Damn, I hate Duke! Love the two-faced bitching about Johnson bailing on them, but do they give a crap about their players taking classes at NC Central instead of Duke??
 
Johnson has been a mess for sometime. He played for Sun Prairie (burb of Madison) and got them to state as a soph. He then moved to the Milwaukee burbs to a D2 school (Nicolet) to play with Jamari Sibley (G'Town). They ran through the competition and won the state title. He then leaves for IMG, never plays and transfers back to Nicolet for ~8 games his Sr. year only to have the state tourney cancelled.

I'd say buyer beware.
 
Ghostsurfer said:
(clipped) but do they give a crap about their players taking classes at NC Central instead of Duke??
Click to expand...
I there any truth to this statement several posters make from time to time? Maybe ok for a single course for some legit reason, etc. occasionally.
But a definite repeated practice by K?
 
Line opened at Duke -5. With the Ewing theory in full effect, Duke was bet up to -7, the line is now around -6.5. Duke did play well last time out against State (with Johnson contributing nothing), but don't think Duke deserves to be a that big of a road favorite over a WF team that has been competitive almost every time out. Game is going to come down to how well WF handles the Duke pressure. If WF turns the pressure into easy baskets and open 3s, WF has a great chance for the upset. If Duke turns WF over for easy baskets (Duke forced 18 State TOs on Saturday), Duke could cruise. Lean WF + the points.
 
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