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Thread: KP Report - Clemson at WF -- EARLY START 4:30 pm Wednesday - ACCN

  1. #1

    KP Report - Clemson at WF -- EARLY START 4:30 pm Wednesday - ACCN

    Our Deacs hope to end a 3-game skid on Wednesday, when Brad Brownell's Clemson Tigers visit the Joel. He is a breakdown on the 13-5 (7-5) #41 Tigers.

    This season: Clemson is in the middle of a second, and more extensive (12 day), COVID pause of the season. Clemson's season can be divided into 3 segments: a) hot start; b) mid-season collapse; c) return to form. Over Clemson's first 9 games, the Tigers had one of the most impressive starts of any team in the nation. During that stretch, Clemson claimed wins over: #72 Miss. State by 11, #17 Purdue by 11, #30 Maryland by 16, #8 Bama by 8 and #12 FSU by 10. Clemson had risen to #18 with a bullet. Then, the Tigers collapsed, which included missing two games due to COVID. During the collapse phase, Clemson lost by 35 at home to UVA, by 18 to GT, by 19 to FSU and by 26 to Duke - noncompetitive. The During this awful stretch, the Tigers dropped from #18 to #61 over a span of 5 games. Then, to start February, Clemson appeared to find its way beating UNC by 13, Cuse by 17 and GT by 2, and played itself back into NCAA Tournament consideration. On February 12, COVID hit the program again. After an 8 day shutdown, the Tigers returned to practice for the first time this past Saturday, but Coach Brownell admitted that not all of their players have been cleared to return. In these days governed by HIPAA further details about who is still out is currently unavailable, but for those with a financial interest in the outcome, you may want to check reports about who from Clemson is warming up on Wednesday afternoon. Brownell did say today that Clemson expects to play the game against Wake Forest on Wednesday.

    Most recent starting lineup: in the two point win over GT (on a miracle last second three point heave by Nick Honor; see below), the Tigers started:

    5-10 So. Nick Honor - Fordham transfer; beefy, built like a LB; leader in steals; second in scoring; 2 to 1 A/TO ratio; erratic scorer; scored 21 in the win over State; then scored 6 or less in five of the next 6 games; 42% from 3
    6-4 So. Alex Hemenway - one trick pony; shooter has taken 41 threes and 17 twos; shot 48% from 3 last year; struggled this year 32% from deep
    6-4 Sr. Clyde Trapp - second in rebounds and assists; averaging 9 rpg over the last 3 games; 41% from 3 in ACC games; 55% from the line
    6-8 Jr. Hunter Tyson - starter over the last 5 games, but plays limited minutes; scored a career high 16 in the recent win over UNC
    6-8 Sr. Aamir Simms - "the man" for Clemson; leads team in points (only double digit scorer), rebounds, assists, blocks; averaging 18 ppg over the last 5 games; fouls can be an issue; fouled out twice; has been whistled for 4 fouls three other times; if he's out, Clemson is limited

    Off the bench:

    6-2 So. Al-Amir Dawes - (not to be confused with Aamir Sims) frequent starter; played well to start the year (double figures in 7 of the first 8 games; only once in the last 10) 33% from 3; prone to TOs
    6-8 Fr. Olivier Maxence Prosper - Canadian; usage has been up recently; scored 9 and grabbed 5 boards in the recent win over Cuse; no threat from 3
    6-10 Sr. Jon Baehre - UNCA transfer; scored 8 in the win over GT; 26% from 3;

    One other player of note:

    Not sure if he is in the doghouse or injured or both, but former WF recruit John Newman's minutes have fallen off a cliff; after leading Clemson in PT and starting every game in 2020; Newman was the 9th man off the bench in the win over GT, playing only 7 minutes; his shooting has been poor this year, shooting 24% from 3; and 35% from the field; wouldn't be surprised to see Newman in the transfer portal after the season.

    Analytics: Like every Brad Brownell team, Clemson plays at a slow pace (13th in the ACC), and emphasizes defense (8th in the ACC) over offense (14th in the ACC). Clemson struggles to put the ball in the basket shooting 32% from 3 in ACC play (13th) and having a 48% effective FG% (12th). Clemson is also prone to TOs (19% TO rate 11th in the ACC). Clemson's only offensive strength is from the line (77% - 4th). Clemson has scored 66 or less in 8 of its last 10 games. On defense, the Tigers make teams to grind out offensive possessions (4th in the ACC in longest defensive possessions), they also force TOs (5th in the ACC in TO rate; 1st in non-steal TO rate) and Clemson keeps teams off the offensive glass (5th in the ACC in preventing offensive boards).

    Bottom line: KP projects 67-62 Tiger win in 65 possessions. The last time off a COVID pause, Clemson lost by 35 at home to UVA. Sounds like the Tigers will have players out, but will it be walk-ons or Aamir Simms and Nick Honor? Even if Clemson has a full roster, Clemson rarely wins by large margins. Also, the Tigers have played their best games at Littlejohn, but they have struggled on the ACC road (1-4; the one win was by a single point over banged up Miami). I have everlasting faith in Coach Forbes, and feel like WF will have the team ready after two disappointing performances (yes, I thought the same thing heading into the State game). Clemson lacks the size (no starter taller than 6-8) that has given WF recent trouble. That said, Aamir Simms is 6-8 245, and WF has no one to physically match up with him. Would guess Ody is WF's best option, but Ody v. Simms has "two quick Ody fouls" written all over it; whomever covers Simms will need help, but Clemson other players are limited; so, helping is an option. After years of futility against Clemson, WF managed to beat Clemson in an disgusting 56-44 final last February. Don't see WF playing crappy three times in a row; so, the Deacs will find a way to pull out a low scoring win over rusty Clemson on Wednesday, damaging to the Tigers' NCAA hopes.
    Last edited by Pilchard; 02-22-2021 at 04:25 PM.

  2. #2
    Here is the three point Nick Honor banker to beat GT:


  3. #3
    Seems like as favorable a matchup as we could expect given our roster composition. Not an overly sizable team, plays at a slow pace. Simms looks problematic but would like to see us attack him on offense to force the issue a bit.

  4. #4
    Oguama or Okpomo need to stay on the court. They combined for 20 minutes against State. Ody was problematic with two quick first half fouls and tepid play in the second half. Okpomo got yanked after three quick turnovers in the first half. Forbes needs to limit Eman's participation on offense to setting picks, offensive rebounds and returning passes to the low post back to the perimeter. He is a good defender and protects the rim well. He will be needed to keep Sims in check.
    Last edited by BlackjackMc; 02-22-2021 at 05:13 PM.

  5. #5
    Sam "Ace" Rothstein
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    I have no idea what to expect here.

    Clemson has played better of late, but those 3 wins were all at home. And now they have this mini-layoff and we arenít sure who is going to play for them.

    Maybe a depleted Clemson team rides Newman and Kidd to victory in a fuck you game to Wake.

    I just hope we play better.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by DeacsATS View Post
    I have no idea what to expect here.

    Clemson has played better of late, but those 3 wins were all at home. And now they have this mini-layoff and we arenít sure who is going to play for them.

    Maybe a depleted Clemson team rides Newman and Kidd to victory in a fuck you game to Wake.

    I just hope we play better.
    Geez, sounds like ATS is still scarred from the State debacle.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by BlackjackMc View Post
    Oguama or Okpomo need to stay on the court. They combined for 20 minutes against State. Ody was problematic with two quick first half fouls and tepid play in the second half. Okpomo got yanked after three quick turnovers in the first half. Forbes needs to limit his participation on offense to setting picks, offensive rebounds and returning passes to the low post back to the perimeter. He is a good defender and protects the rim well. He will be needed to keep Sims in check.
    Forbes is def a big body but Iím not sure he has the height to go head-to-head with Simms. Plus he got tossed from our last game in the freaking first half so he needs to keep his emotions in check.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Pilchard View Post
    Geez, sounds like ATS is still scarred from the State debacle.
    Sounds like his wallet is hurting at a minimum.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by WRS View Post
    Forbes is def a big body but Iím not sure he has the height to go head-to-head with Simms. Plus he got tossed from our last game in the freaking first half so he needs to keep his emotions in check.
    Corrected. Thanks.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by BlackjackMc View Post
    Corrected. Thanks.
    Ha, I legitimately got a good laugh out of it!

  11. #11
    Which Deac team will be playing? The one that played so well in Tallahassee, or the one that sucked ass against Duke and State?

  12. #12
    We may be out of gas. Hope not, we shall see.

  13. #13
    FWIW, here are KP's offensive ratings for each WF player (100 is an "average" rating; it's purely based on stats with no subjective adjustment; turnovers and missed shots negatively impact a player's O rating):

    Ian DuBose 116.4
    Ody Oguama 114.8
    Jonah Antonio 114.4
    Jalen Johnson 106.0
    Davien Williamson 101.4
    Isaiah Mucius 100.6
    Ismael Massoud 95.3
    Emmanuel Okpomo 92.9
    Jacobi Neath 81.4
    Carter Whitt 64.3

    FWIW, he only played two games against awful teams (which included a "perfect game" 7 for 7 from the field and 5 for 5 from the line), Tariq Ingraham's O rating for the season is a ridiculous 157.7.

    Nationally, the highest rated player who is used on at least 28% of his team's offensive possessions is Iowa's Luka Garza 125.8 (like Ingraham there are lower usage players with higher O ratings).

    Finally, here is a list of players that played particularly poorly against Duke and State, and I expect/hope to improve against Clemson:

    Jonah: 36 minutes; 3 for 11 on FGs; 2 assists 4 TOs
    Jalen: 28 minutes: 3 for 10 on FGs; 1 rebound ;1 assist
    Carter: 53 minutes: 1 for 12 on FGs; 3 rebounds; 2 assists; 3 TOs
    Ismael: 39 minutes: 3 for 12 on FGs 7 boards; 3 assists; 3 TOs
    Emmanuel: 18 minutes: 0 for 0 on FGs; 1 rebound; 3 TOs
    Last edited by Pilchard; 02-22-2021 at 06:56 PM.

  14. #14
    O rating makes me laugh.

  15. #15
    Sam "Ace" Rothstein
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pilchard View Post
    Geez, sounds like ATS is still scarred from the State debacle.
    Iím a broken man.

    Nah, just disappointed. Hoping for a better effort on Wednesday, but will stay on the sidelines.

    Iíd still like to see us win another regular season game or two... And of course win one in the ACC Tourney.

  16. #16
    Sam "Ace" Rothstein
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    Seeing Clemson -5...

    Must. Stay. Away.

  17. #17
    I note that Tommy Mahaffey, the eldest of 4 brothers who played basketball for Clemson in the 60s, died earlier this month. Mahaffey was on the Clemson team that Wake defeated in the 1962 ACC championship game. Most interestingly, all 4 Mahaffeys averaged a double-double at least one season at Clemson. https://www.tigernet.com/update/Form...ses-away-37420
    Charlie Davis

  18. #18
    Sam "Ace" Rothstein
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    Clemson -4 this morning at my book.

    No play for me, but I expect a much better effort from the team.

    Probably an ugly game... Maybe a bit of a slow-paced rock fight. Hoping we can pull out a win to regain some momentum and prevent a tailspin.

  19. #19
    Will be there this afternoon. Can't wait to see a game live & in person!

  20. #20
    Cmon boys, we need a win BAD...... GO DEACS!

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