Pilchard
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Tomorrow, our reeling Deacs head north to Blacksburg to take on the Hokies. Here is a rundown on VT:
This season: The #53 Hokies (14-5; 8-4) are coming off a seventeen day COVID shutdown and a big home loss (69-53) to GT on Tuesday. Since beating WF on January 17, the Hokies have gone 3-3 losing by double digits to #59 Cuse, #79 Pitt and #35 GT and beating #63 ND, #13 UVA and at #141 Miami in OT; except for the all-out effort against UVA, the Hokies haven't played well in a while. Also, in the six weeks between the WF/VT clash and this one, Johnny Law nabbed VT's 2nd leading scorer and 3rd leading rebounder, Tyrece Radford, on a DUI and a weapons charge, but after putting Radford in a time-out, VT determined that Tyrece learned his lesson after sitting out four games as Radford returned to action on Tuesday scoring 11 points.
The lineup: in the loss to the Jackets the Hokies started:
6-1 Sr. Wabissa Bede: the only current Hokie that played on the 2019 Sweet 16 squad; leads in assists and steals; not a scorer; 23% from 3; help off him
6-2 So. Tyrece Radford: just returned from suspension; best rebounding guard in the ACC; great around the basket 61% from 2; can't shoot; 25% from 3
6-4 So. Naheim Alleyne: erratic - over the last 10 games he has scored double digits 4 times and has scored 5 or less four times; 38% from 3
6-7 Jr. Justyn Mutts: solid inside player 59% from 2; iffy 3 point shooter (29%); steady rebounder
6-9 Jr. Keve Aluma: VT's best player; leading in scoring and boards; had back to back 30 and 29 point games against UVA and Pitt; has missed his last 7 three point shots
Off the bench: Hokies have been short-handed lately as Jalen Cone hasn't played since February 6 with an ankle injury; against GT, VT used:
6-3 So. Hunter Cattoor: shooter; 47% from behind the arc; hit the game-tying 3 that led to the win over Miami; can't help off of him
6-9 Fr. David N'Guessan: offensive non-factor except against WF; scored career high 13 against the Deacs; has scored a TOTAL of 3 points in the last 5 games
6-9 Sr. Cordell Pemsl: Iowa transfer; missed 9 games because of injury returned against GT to grab two boards; a big body, but nothing else
As noted above, Jalen Cone has missed three weeks of game and practice time with an ankle injury, but he may return tomorrow. His absence has hurt the Hokies as he is big time threat from deep (lead the Hokies in 3 pointers) an helps open up the inside for Aluma, Mutts and Radford.
Analytics: KP ranks VT #10 in the ACC on offense and #6 on defense. On offense, VT's scores by drawing fouls. They are #2 in the ACC in FTA per FGA, and they get almost 20% of their offense from the line (2nd in the ACC); despite have two elite three point shooters in Cone and Cattoor, their other players, who think they can shoot from deep, drag down the Hokies 3 point %, and as a team VT only shoots 32% from 3 in ACC games (only 31% of their offense comes from 3s; #10 in the ACC); VT is a deliberate offensive team as they are 12th in the conference in length of offensive possessions. Defensively, the Hokies strength is preventing offensive boards (#2 in preventing offensive rebounds) and defending the arc (4th in the ACC in defensive 3 point % 33%). VT is 2nd to last in the conference in defensive steal %, but they block shots at a high rate (#3 in block %). VT plays at a slow tempo averaging 66 possessions in ACC games; in the loss to GT, the two teams combined for a comically low 57 possessions which might be the low for any conference game all season. Snails pace.
Bottom line: KP projects a 72-61 Hokie win in 65 possessions. This game is huge for the Hokies. Until the COVID shutdown, VT was an NCAA lock. After a bad home loss to GT, the Hokies need to win at least one of their last 3 to stay off (or perhaps even fall off) the bubble, and this is, by far, their most winnable remaining game (their last two are #46 L'ville, and @ suddenly hot NC State). WF has been blown out three times in a row, and there is little reason to think that WF will hang on the road with a VT team that is desperate for a win. OTOH, WF is overdue to hit some open threes and finish uncontested twos, but the due theory didn't work out against Clemson, and VT and Clemson play a similar style. Expecting a slow grinder where VT steadily pulls away for an ugly low-scoring and unsatisfying double digit Hokie win. Hoping for, but not expecting, a pleasant surprise from our Deacs.
This season: The #53 Hokies (14-5; 8-4) are coming off a seventeen day COVID shutdown and a big home loss (69-53) to GT on Tuesday. Since beating WF on January 17, the Hokies have gone 3-3 losing by double digits to #59 Cuse, #79 Pitt and #35 GT and beating #63 ND, #13 UVA and at #141 Miami in OT; except for the all-out effort against UVA, the Hokies haven't played well in a while. Also, in the six weeks between the WF/VT clash and this one, Johnny Law nabbed VT's 2nd leading scorer and 3rd leading rebounder, Tyrece Radford, on a DUI and a weapons charge, but after putting Radford in a time-out, VT determined that Tyrece learned his lesson after sitting out four games as Radford returned to action on Tuesday scoring 11 points.
The lineup: in the loss to the Jackets the Hokies started:
6-1 Sr. Wabissa Bede: the only current Hokie that played on the 2019 Sweet 16 squad; leads in assists and steals; not a scorer; 23% from 3; help off him
6-2 So. Tyrece Radford: just returned from suspension; best rebounding guard in the ACC; great around the basket 61% from 2; can't shoot; 25% from 3
6-4 So. Naheim Alleyne: erratic - over the last 10 games he has scored double digits 4 times and has scored 5 or less four times; 38% from 3
6-7 Jr. Justyn Mutts: solid inside player 59% from 2; iffy 3 point shooter (29%); steady rebounder
6-9 Jr. Keve Aluma: VT's best player; leading in scoring and boards; had back to back 30 and 29 point games against UVA and Pitt; has missed his last 7 three point shots
Off the bench: Hokies have been short-handed lately as Jalen Cone hasn't played since February 6 with an ankle injury; against GT, VT used:
6-3 So. Hunter Cattoor: shooter; 47% from behind the arc; hit the game-tying 3 that led to the win over Miami; can't help off of him
6-9 Fr. David N'Guessan: offensive non-factor except against WF; scored career high 13 against the Deacs; has scored a TOTAL of 3 points in the last 5 games
6-9 Sr. Cordell Pemsl: Iowa transfer; missed 9 games because of injury returned against GT to grab two boards; a big body, but nothing else
As noted above, Jalen Cone has missed three weeks of game and practice time with an ankle injury, but he may return tomorrow. His absence has hurt the Hokies as he is big time threat from deep (lead the Hokies in 3 pointers) an helps open up the inside for Aluma, Mutts and Radford.
Analytics: KP ranks VT #10 in the ACC on offense and #6 on defense. On offense, VT's scores by drawing fouls. They are #2 in the ACC in FTA per FGA, and they get almost 20% of their offense from the line (2nd in the ACC); despite have two elite three point shooters in Cone and Cattoor, their other players, who think they can shoot from deep, drag down the Hokies 3 point %, and as a team VT only shoots 32% from 3 in ACC games (only 31% of their offense comes from 3s; #10 in the ACC); VT is a deliberate offensive team as they are 12th in the conference in length of offensive possessions. Defensively, the Hokies strength is preventing offensive boards (#2 in preventing offensive rebounds) and defending the arc (4th in the ACC in defensive 3 point % 33%). VT is 2nd to last in the conference in defensive steal %, but they block shots at a high rate (#3 in block %). VT plays at a slow tempo averaging 66 possessions in ACC games; in the loss to GT, the two teams combined for a comically low 57 possessions which might be the low for any conference game all season. Snails pace.
Bottom line: KP projects a 72-61 Hokie win in 65 possessions. This game is huge for the Hokies. Until the COVID shutdown, VT was an NCAA lock. After a bad home loss to GT, the Hokies need to win at least one of their last 3 to stay off (or perhaps even fall off) the bubble, and this is, by far, their most winnable remaining game (their last two are #46 L'ville, and @ suddenly hot NC State). WF has been blown out three times in a row, and there is little reason to think that WF will hang on the road with a VT team that is desperate for a win. OTOH, WF is overdue to hit some open threes and finish uncontested twos, but the due theory didn't work out against Clemson, and VT and Clemson play a similar style. Expecting a slow grinder where VT steadily pulls away for an ugly low-scoring and unsatisfying double digit Hokie win. Hoping for, but not expecting, a pleasant surprise from our Deacs.
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