Pilchard
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The Deacs last regular season game will be played tomorrow (FRIDAY) as WF hosts surging GT as the Jackets bookend WF's ACC regular season. Here is a take on Josh Pastner's Rambling Wreck squad:
This season: The Jackets started the season with back to back home losses to GA State (#148) and Mercer (#147), and GT's and Josh Pastner's prospects looked grim for the 2020-21 season. Despite the horrendable start, GT has turned it around improving from a season's worst #90 KP rating on November 27 to a season's best #30 after Tuesday's win over Duke in OT. Right now, GT finds itself 14-8 overall (10-6 in the ACC) and looks to be safely in the NCAAs (generally considered a #10 or #11 seed; fwiw, this is the type of team - veteran team; unique defense; everyone knows their roles; have played lots of close games against top teams - that traditionally pulls a couple of NCAA upsets). As GT heads into the Joel, they have won 5 straight games (Pitt, @ Miami, @VT, Cuse and Duke). As long as the Jackets don't trip up against WF and then lose to open the ACC Tournament, GT should secure its first NCAA bid since 2010 (that GT team featured Brian Oliver, Iman Shumpert, Derrick Favors and Glen Rice Jr.).
The lineup:
The Jackets play a veteran lineup (#4 in the NCAA in experience) and generally use only 6 players (#339 in bench minutes). The starters:
6-0 Sr. Jose Alvarado - This will be Alvardo's 100th start for the Jackets; leads in assists, steals, FT% 88%, 4!% from 3, very steady
6-5 Jr. Michael Devoe - Solid player, but has not been as good as he was in 2020; almost declared for the NBA draft last year; 38% from 3 (5 for his last 23); 2nd leading rebounder
6-7 Jr. Khalid Moore - Not a scorer; 24% from 3; hasn't scored in double figures in an ACC game;
6-7 Sr. Jordan Usher - USC transfer; in the recent win over Cuse: 19 points, 7 boards, 6 assists; 31% from 3;
6-9 Sr. Moses Wright - has become an elite big man; leading scorer and rebounder; has been unstoppable lately: averaging 25 ppg and 14 rpg over the current 5 game winning streak; my ACC POY
Off the bench:
5-10 Sr. Bubba Parham - VMI transfer; slumping lately: 9 total points over the last 4 games; 34% from 3; doesn't turn the ball over;
6-2 So. Kyle Sturdivant - USC transfer; nothing burger: played in every ACC game, but his conference high game came against... yes, WF with 7
The analytics: #6 in the ACC in offense and defense. Their strength is shooting as the Jackets are #3 in the ACC in effective FG% (55%) and #2 in the ACC in 2 point FG% ; GT also doesn't turn the ball over much (16% TO%: #4). GT doesn't hit the offensive glass (#13 in O rebound %), and they don't get to the line often. Defensively, GT plays a funky zone which forces TOs (#1 in the ACC in defensive TOs forced; #1 in the ACC in steals). When teams avoid TOs, GT isn't great at defending the paint (#10 in 2 PT defense; #12 at preventing offensive rebounds); their defense forces teams to play slow as the #4 in the ACC in longest defensive possessions. GT likes to keep games in the half-court, #10 in tempo in ACC games averaging 66.8 possessions per game. Foul trouble is the Jackets' Achilles Heel as they have no legit options off the bench.
The bottom line: KP projects a 74-64 GT win in 67 possessions. FWIW, this is a TERRIBLE scheduling spot for GT. The Jackets are coming off a senior night OT win over Duke, they have the ACC Tourney on deck and GT under Pastner has always been the kind of team to play up to or down to their competition (see the losses to Mercer and GA State; close wins over Florida A&M and Pitt). Plus, GT already coasted by WF in January. Don't expect an A effort from GT. That said, this is an awful "on the court" matchup for WF. Moses Wright has been killing ACC teams with legit inside size and strength, and now he faces a WF team that is 13th in the ACC in two point defense, and with Forbes limiting Okpomo's minutes and with Ody foul trouble an inevitability, at some point WF will be forced to have Mucius and/or Massoud attempt to keep Wright away from the basket... YIKES. Also, while GT is the best in the ACC at forcing TOs, WF is next last in the ACC in giving up TOs (although WF has improved in that area). The point guard matchup tells you all you need to know about the two teams. The ageless Jose Alvarado against high schooler Carter Whitt, who should be planning his HS beach week. Different worlds. If the line gets to 11, I will take WF because GT is they type of team to sleepwalk through most of the game, but WF just lost to a Pitt team by 13 with Justin Champagnie and a handful of low-level ACC bench-warmers; so, passing on the game is the best advice.
This season: The Jackets started the season with back to back home losses to GA State (#148) and Mercer (#147), and GT's and Josh Pastner's prospects looked grim for the 2020-21 season. Despite the horrendable start, GT has turned it around improving from a season's worst #90 KP rating on November 27 to a season's best #30 after Tuesday's win over Duke in OT. Right now, GT finds itself 14-8 overall (10-6 in the ACC) and looks to be safely in the NCAAs (generally considered a #10 or #11 seed; fwiw, this is the type of team - veteran team; unique defense; everyone knows their roles; have played lots of close games against top teams - that traditionally pulls a couple of NCAA upsets). As GT heads into the Joel, they have won 5 straight games (Pitt, @ Miami, @VT, Cuse and Duke). As long as the Jackets don't trip up against WF and then lose to open the ACC Tournament, GT should secure its first NCAA bid since 2010 (that GT team featured Brian Oliver, Iman Shumpert, Derrick Favors and Glen Rice Jr.).
The lineup:
The Jackets play a veteran lineup (#4 in the NCAA in experience) and generally use only 6 players (#339 in bench minutes). The starters:
6-0 Sr. Jose Alvarado - This will be Alvardo's 100th start for the Jackets; leads in assists, steals, FT% 88%, 4!% from 3, very steady
6-5 Jr. Michael Devoe - Solid player, but has not been as good as he was in 2020; almost declared for the NBA draft last year; 38% from 3 (5 for his last 23); 2nd leading rebounder
6-7 Jr. Khalid Moore - Not a scorer; 24% from 3; hasn't scored in double figures in an ACC game;
6-7 Sr. Jordan Usher - USC transfer; in the recent win over Cuse: 19 points, 7 boards, 6 assists; 31% from 3;
6-9 Sr. Moses Wright - has become an elite big man; leading scorer and rebounder; has been unstoppable lately: averaging 25 ppg and 14 rpg over the current 5 game winning streak; my ACC POY
Off the bench:
5-10 Sr. Bubba Parham - VMI transfer; slumping lately: 9 total points over the last 4 games; 34% from 3; doesn't turn the ball over;
6-2 So. Kyle Sturdivant - USC transfer; nothing burger: played in every ACC game, but his conference high game came against... yes, WF with 7
The analytics: #6 in the ACC in offense and defense. Their strength is shooting as the Jackets are #3 in the ACC in effective FG% (55%) and #2 in the ACC in 2 point FG% ; GT also doesn't turn the ball over much (16% TO%: #4). GT doesn't hit the offensive glass (#13 in O rebound %), and they don't get to the line often. Defensively, GT plays a funky zone which forces TOs (#1 in the ACC in defensive TOs forced; #1 in the ACC in steals). When teams avoid TOs, GT isn't great at defending the paint (#10 in 2 PT defense; #12 at preventing offensive rebounds); their defense forces teams to play slow as the #4 in the ACC in longest defensive possessions. GT likes to keep games in the half-court, #10 in tempo in ACC games averaging 66.8 possessions per game. Foul trouble is the Jackets' Achilles Heel as they have no legit options off the bench.
The bottom line: KP projects a 74-64 GT win in 67 possessions. FWIW, this is a TERRIBLE scheduling spot for GT. The Jackets are coming off a senior night OT win over Duke, they have the ACC Tourney on deck and GT under Pastner has always been the kind of team to play up to or down to their competition (see the losses to Mercer and GA State; close wins over Florida A&M and Pitt). Plus, GT already coasted by WF in January. Don't expect an A effort from GT. That said, this is an awful "on the court" matchup for WF. Moses Wright has been killing ACC teams with legit inside size and strength, and now he faces a WF team that is 13th in the ACC in two point defense, and with Forbes limiting Okpomo's minutes and with Ody foul trouble an inevitability, at some point WF will be forced to have Mucius and/or Massoud attempt to keep Wright away from the basket... YIKES. Also, while GT is the best in the ACC at forcing TOs, WF is next last in the ACC in giving up TOs (although WF has improved in that area). The point guard matchup tells you all you need to know about the two teams. The ageless Jose Alvarado against high schooler Carter Whitt, who should be planning his HS beach week. Different worlds. If the line gets to 11, I will take WF because GT is they type of team to sleepwalk through most of the game, but WF just lost to a Pitt team by 13 with Justin Champagnie and a handful of low-level ACC bench-warmers; so, passing on the game is the best advice.
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