Eight weeks down, six to go until playoff time and since I was unable to do a full weekly preview last week, I figure now is a good time to give a review of the season as a whole to this point. Some teams are already all but eliminated, others are in a divisional scrap for their playoff lives, while some are ready to put their feet up and start making their playoff plans concrete. I am going to do a tier system review, focusing the least on those of us who have no hope remaining and giving some more time to those who deserve the plaudits for a great first half of the season. Let's get it going.
Tier 4: Looking Forward to 2022
Criteria for Tier 4: Less than 10% chance of making the playoffs per ESPN's Fantasy Playoffs Calculations
Tier 4 is a hefty tier to start us off as no less than nine teams currently have playoff odds of less than 10% according to ESPN, including two teams with .500 records. We will go team-by-team from worst record to best in this tier.
JManslow (0-8; 0% Playoff Odds): 2021 has proven to be an incredibly tough season for JMan as he is yet to find a win on the schedule. While a deserving loser some weeks, JMan has also found luck to be against him with 3 top half scoring weeks all failing to get him that sweet victory. JMan is the only team who is mathematically eliminated from playoff contention as the remaining six games on the schedule would not be enough to win him the division due to tiebreaks and too many teams ahead of him guaranteed to get to 7 victories and a wildcard spot based on remaining schedules. JMan, I wish you the best the rest of the season and am hopeful you can get at least one win.
Mr. I/O Deac (1-7; 3%): Another team who has had the year from hell, Mr. I/O really hasn't been unlucky, his team just hasn't produced what would have been expected at the start of the season, leading to just a lone win through eight weeks. However, Mr. I/O still has some playoff chances due to a very tight division where even at 1-7 he only remains three games back of the lead. With one divisional tiebreak on his side and still an outside shot of putting together a run of wins, Mr. I/O still has a chance. But those odds are dwindling and any further losses will eliminate him from playoff contention.
Goon Squad (2-6; 1%): My draft strategy was terrible and I was unfortunately placed in an extremely tough division, meaning I have to win out to make the playoffs. I don't have tiebreakers on my side after losing two divisional games, so I may be eliminated even if I win out. I just don't want to finish last, it would be so embarrassing to finish last. PLEASE FANTASY GODS, SEE THE WORK I DO AND SMILE UPON ME.
Ghost Surfer (2-6; 1%): The signs of life from Ghost after winning 2 of 3 games ultimately were dispelled after a loss this week took him to four games back of the divisional lead. While a wildcard spot is technically within reach, Ghost is down head to head tiebreakers with all three 6-2 teams from the Kitchin Division and Fighting Cocks as well in his own division, meaning he would have to finish a full game up on all four of those teams, a tall task to be sure. And with a remaining schedule that contains all teams above .500 but one, things are not looking great for the Ghost.
Pickle-6 Rick (3-5; 3%): A season with tons of promise has taken a turn for the worse as three straight losses has put Pickle into a must-win-out situation. He is buoyed by the same divisional situation as Mr. I/O which prevents Pickle from being totally eliminated, but similar to many in this tier, Pickle has a horrible tiebreaker situation which leaves him essentially needing to win out and get a lot of help from elsewhere despite on paper only being one game back in the division. If Pickle can go on a run and get to the top of the division, there is still hope as a Week 14 matchup against Young Buck could be a win-and-in type game. But it's a long road ahead and with no one on Pickle's remaining schedule below .500, the road is very tough.
Edarem (3-5; 5%): Much of the analysis for Edarem is the same as Pickle: the division gives Edarem a shot due to being just one game back on paper, but tiebreakers are tough. Edarem has the head to head with Pickle which gives him a little boost in playoff odds, but it's still not an ideal situation as he will still likely need to finish one game clear of the rest of the division. Like many of the teams here in Tier 4, Edarem's schedule is extremely difficult the rest of the way, and by the time he gets a free win against me in Week 13, it might be too late. But he did put up the top score in Week 8 so there is a glimmer of hope for our defending champ.
Bern (3-5; 4%): Bern's 2021 started fairly well, but a 4-game losing streak until a win in Week 8 has dropped him down the standings and leaves him with limited chances to get back into the playoff picture. The Taylor division is strong and bern is 2 games out of a wildcard spot with not great tiebreakers against most of his direct rivals. However a win in Week 8 against Satan gives him a bit more of a chance if he can put a run of games together, and relative to other Tier 4 teams, his closing schedule isn't as difficult as most. He also still has a game against Fighting Cocks to get another divisional tiebreaker back, so as long as bern can keep winning he has a better chance than most Tier 4 teams. However like the rest in this tier, one more loss pretty much spells the end of bern's playoff chances.
Carolina WacDarnolds (4-4; 7%): Ph left it all to do after starting the season 0-3, but 4 straight wins saw him above .500 this late into the season for the first time in years. However, a tough Week 8 loss to division rival DeacHawk leaves him with limited chances to make the playoffs despite his .500 record. With three teams ahead of him in the division and two of them with direct head to head tiebreakers, Ph's playoff hopes hinge on getting at least a game ahead of wildcard foes and hoping its enough. Luckily for Ph, his remaining schedule is one of the easier in the league with 4 games left against teams under .500. But the two other games are against direct wildcard rivals Fighting Cocks and Jive Turkeys, must win games on top of the others to have a chance to get ahead in the stadnings. Should Ph lose this week or in Week 10 to Fighting Cocks, his playoff hopes are all but over, but there is life still in Ph's season.
Lone Wolf (4-4; 3%): Probably the harshest inclusion in Tier 4 but one dictated by the numbers, Lone Wolf is .500 and has almost no shot to make the playoffs due to three 6-2 teams in the Kitchin Division. Lone Wolf is down in tiebreakers to the whole division with an 0-3 mark so far, and with only one remaining game in the division left there is limited time to rectify the situation. Wolf's season is still on life support due to his remaining schedule containing 5 teams that are outside of Tier 4 and therefore direct playoff rivals, and with his team being the 5th highest scoring team on the season, it isn't unreasonable to think that Wolf could go on a run. But any further losses would send him all the way into tiebreaker hell and essentially eliminate him no matter what his final record ends up, so winning is an absolute must. Best of luck, Wolf, I believe in the miracle run.
Tier 3: So You're Telling Me There's A Chance
Criteria for Tier 3: Greater than 10% Playoff Odds, Less than 50%
For as loaded as Tier 4 was, Tier 3 is rather small with just two teams currently qualifying for the under 50% but over 10% threshold. And the teams could not be more different as one currently leads their division while the other is rock bottom of theirs, let's take a look.
Lazy-Eyed Psychos (4-4; 40%): One of the hottest teams in the league right now, Sleepy's Psychos have ripped off three in a row to get back to .500 and they are rocketing up the playoff odds charts despite remaining at the bottom of his division at present. The key to Sleepy's playoff odds may have come just this past week as a win over division leading Barca has given him a key tiebreaker in the playoff race. And with direct playoff rivals on Sleepy's schedule the next three weeks, wins will quickly add up to greater odds each week. However that schedule is a double-edged sword as any losses against his rivals will lead to his playoff odds falling off a cliff. But with the form Sleepy is in, don't be surprised if we wake up in Week 12 and Sleepy is right there in the playoff spots.
Mrs. I/O Deac (4-4; 23%): Division leaders in Week 8 usually average between 70-90% playoff odds, so it is very curious that Mrs. I/O finds her playoff odds so low despite holding the head to head tiebreaker over divisional foe Young Buck. However, because the Davis Division as a whole has struggled so much this season, a wildcard berth is likely not on offer for the 2nd place team in the division. Because of such a razor thin margin to get into the playoffs, it's no surprise that the odds are a little wonky, but I think they may be undervaluing Mrs. I/O at this point. Her remaining schedule has some tough teams, but also 4 remaining games against teams under .500. And with the tiebreaker already in hand against Young Buck, she just has to hold serve to sneak her way into the 4th seed. But again, margins are thin at this point and a losing streak would be something Mrs. I/O could ill afford.
Tier 2: Wildcard, Bitches!
Criteria for Tier 2: Greater than 50% playoff odds, less than 90%
The bulk of our remaining teams fall into this category and I would imagine three of the four wildcard spots will come from this tier (the 4th spot will go to someone in Tier 1 as we will see), let's breakdown Tier 2.
Young Buck (4-4; 70%): Young Buck is the reverse side of the coin that was Mrs. I/O Deac's analysis. Young Buck got out to a solid 4-2 start but back to back losses have seen him drop below Mrs. I/O in the Davis Division pecking order. But just like Mrs. I/O, Young Buck has four remaining games against under .500 opponents, meaning it will likely be all to play for as go down the homestretch of the season. As stated above, Young Buck will need to finish a game clear of Mrs. I/O due to the tiebreaker (who said Week 1 didn't matter?), so making sure to win the games he is supposed to win will be paramount for Young Buck.
W-S DeacHawk (5-3; 56%): The lowest playoff odds of any team in Tier 2, DeacHawk is unfortunate to be living in the purgatory of being a decent team in a tough division. After a slow start to the season, DeacHawk has reeled off 4 wins in 5 games to get himself firmly in the playoff picture, but for now he exists in the worst position in the standings, 9th. With six teams at 6-2 and the Davis Division currently sending a .500 team to the playoffs as division winner, DeacHawk is locked in a battle with Fighting Cocks for the last playoff spot. Between the two, DeacHawk has a significantly harder schedule the rest of the way, with only one team under .500 remaining on his schedule and three games left against current 6-2 teams. DeacHawk also has the benefit of a Week 13 matchup with Fighting Cocks himself so if it is still to play for at the end of the season, DeacHawk can control his own destiny. But getting to that Week 13 matchup still in contention will be the tough part and with such a difficult division, any losses can sink his playoff chances immediately. But all you can ask for at this point is to be able to win the games in front of you and make the playoffs, and that is still on the table for DeacHawk.
SD3 (6-2; 72%): SD3 is on an absolute scorcher having won 5 straight games, and this streak has taken him from the bottom of the Kitchin right into the playoff race. It's been a phenomenal run to get to this point and SD3 will be hopeful the good times can continue, and he will need them to do so as his few tiebreakers are not super strong. The thing holding SD3 back the most is his relatively weak scoring as he is the lowest season scorer of the 6-2 teams and is below both 5-3 teams as well. But as has been seen so often in fantasy football, wins matter more than points and if SD3 can keep the streak alive and put a few more wins on the board, the scoring tiebreakers likely will not come into play. But I am sure that SD3 will want to make sure he's scoring as well and take all risk out of it as we get closer to the end of the season.
Barça (6-2; 77%): Barça took just his second loss of the season in Week 8, but still looks to be in good position to secure a playoff spot in the coming weeks. A head to head win over redwing gives him some security in the division, while 5 games remaining against teams .500 or below gives Barça plenty of wildcard security as well. But things are never quite as comfortable as they seem. CMC's continued absence has been a real pain for Barça over the last couple weeks and now with Kyler Murray having questionable status, there are some cracks showing in Barça's facade. He will be hopeful that the lower strength of schedule remaining is enough cushion to see him into the playoffs, but with so many teams bunched up at the top, one false step could see his playoff chances fall drastically. Not the ideal situation Barça would probably like to be in, but there are worse things to be than first place in the league after 8 weeks.
Pitt County Pinfish (6-2; 78%): Rookie of the Year TripleDeac will be breathing a huge sigh of relief after a second straight below-par week barely was enough to get a win, but with it Triple got to 6-2 and leads the Kitchin Division. Similar to Barça, the remaining schedule isn't super difficult, but a Week 9 matchup against fellow 6-2 redwing and a looming potential division decider against Peach means that Triple can't rest on his laurels for too much longer and must get back to the high scoring ways that saw him rocket out to a 4-0 start to the season. If Triple can get through Week 11 and still be afloat, the final three games are against teams a combined 6-18 on the season, so no matter what Triple should have a shot at cementing his status as one of the great rookie owners in The Pit League history.
Deacon Peach (6-2; 85%): While some at the top are teetering after hot starts, Deacon Peach has won three straight and has found herself with the best playoff odds of teams in the Kitchin Division. After winning the Peach/Wolf Bowl in Week 8, Peach finds herself with five consecutive 80+ performances and her destiny within her control with the Pinfish and SD3 still on the schedule. Other than her two remaining divisional games, Peach does not have a team currently above .500 remaining, giving her pole position to make her own luck. Also of note, should Peach win in Week 13 against Mrs. I/O, she will have swept the Family Corner Power Couples and can officially be crowned the best Power Couple owner in all the land.
Jive Turkeys (6-2; 85%: redwing makes yet another team who has the best playoff odds in his division despite not being the current division leader. Consecutive wins while topping 100 points have righted the shift after a slight early season bobble saw him drop two of three games, and with this momentum redwing will look to push onwards to playoff glory. redwing has a tougher remaining schedule than most in Tier 2 with three remaining games against teams currently over .500 and another two against currently 4-4 teams, but with scoring prowess like redwing has showed, it shouldn't be too big an issue. redwing did lose the head to head with Barça so any thoughts of winning the division will need him to get a game up on him, but as the highest scoring team at 6-2 and second highest scorer overall in the league, he has scoring tiebreakers that should still see him safely into a playoff position.
Tier 1: Satan and His Stupid Sexy Minion
Criteria for Tier 1: 90+% playoff odds
Here we are at the mountain top, the crème de la crème, the leaders of the Taylor Division. Spouting 90+% playoff odds after eight weeks, it would take a massive collapse for either of these teams to find themselves on the outside looking in. Let's look at these two playoff favorites.
Fighting Cocks (5-3; 93%): Despite his 5-3 record putting him in provisional 8th place, the Fighting Cocks of Appalachia are sitting extremely pretty in the playoff race after a win in Week 8. The Cocks are the league's top scorer and have head to head tiebreakers against two key wildcard rivals from the Kitchin Division in Peach and TripleDeac. The Cocks also have a decent run in with only two teams with winning records remaining, though both of those games will be huge in Week 12 and Week 13 with redwing and DeacHawk coming to town. Those games will likely have huge playoff implications, but maybe not for the Cocks as they could have a playoff spot already locked up by the time they get there if the weeks coming up go according to plan. The Cocks won't be able to sit totally comfortably as being a game down on a third of the league does ultimately win out over most points scored, but it's likely that he will find himself fairly safe entering the final couple of weeks.
Satan's Minions (6-2; 95%): Just a week ago I would have said lock it up and throw away the key, Satan is in the playoffs after his victory over the Pinfish. But a dismal Week 8 performance saw him be the low scorer of the league and threw a slight wrench into the ticker tap parade plans Satan may have been making. Still, with four games remaining against teams .500 and below and tiebreakers against Fighting Cocks, Peach, SD3, and Pinfish, there are very few scenarios barring a total collapse that could see Satan fall outside of the top 8 once all is said and done. Whether that will translate into actual performance come playoff time is a totally different story, but after a 2020 season that saw him finish in dead last, Satan can be very happy with his 2021 so far with the potential to go worst to first.
WEEK 8 STATS
Wanted to make sure to also get the stats from last week out, we have our first teams to hit 100 all-play wins/losses now after Week 8. I will see you all tomorrow for a Week 9 preview!
