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What record will Wake football have going into the UNC game?

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  • Total voters
    109
Deacs give up a lot of yards relative to the points they give up -- bend don't break, if you will -- and are winning the turnover battle by a wide margin

typically you see a regression to the mean in those circumstances, which is what some of the models are projecting, I think
 
DeacsATS said:
I don't think that was a real line. I show it opened at -7 and has moved down to -6.5 at most books.
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I mean it was a "real line," Circa out in Vegas is always the first out with the lines. They're hardly sharp at doing it though so:
a) It's not surprising their line moved significantly, it happens every week. In fact they were seven points off on where the Akron-Bowling Green line is right now, as an example
b) I wouldn't be too concerned about them being too high on us on this particular game
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
Deacs give up a lot of yards relative to the points they give up -- bend don't break, if you will -- and are winning the turnover battle by a wide margin

typically you see a regression to the mean in those circumstances, which is what some of the models are projecting, I think
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Understandable, but some programs are always excel at TO margin. For example, WF under Clawson and Iowa under Ferenz. People keep waiting for the regression to the mean, but they don't get that the mean favors Iowa and WF.
 
In response to Pilchard & Juice...

I'd like to fade Wake's chances to win the ACC, but I don't like the value of ANY of the other teams. Maybe the next couple of weeks will present a better opportunity. I still think Clemson will ultimately be the team to beat, but the current odds don't offer any reward for making that call.

Maybe I'll just pick a team or two in the Coastal (VT/Pitt/UNC) and put some money there... But none of those teams excite me, either.
 
wsc8521s said:
I mean it was a "real line," Circa out in Vegas is always the first out with the lines. They're hardly sharp at doing it though so:
a) It's not surprising their line moved significantly, it happens every week. In fact they were seven points off on where the Akron-Bowling Green line is right now, as an example
b) I wouldn't be too concerned about them being too high on us on this particular game
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Right. Where I look generally eliminates those opening Circa lines. In fact, it shows me the opening Circa line was -7 at 2:03pm yesterday. But it also shows me it was -11 somewhere, if only for a minute or two.
 
some of our fans would've picked 3-5 if you offered it
 
IAppreciateIt said:
not a huge slight, but sagarin ratings suggest we should be a 9.5 pt favorite -- so vegas either believes sagarin overrates us (and perhaps believes some of the logic behind the FP+ system) or thinks syracuse is underratd (or some combo of the two -- syracuse is 70 in SP+ vs. 80 in sagarin). obvously based on that, vegas thinks we are better than where FP+ has us, as well.

obviously none of these systems is perfect and we are still talking about not much data, so shouldn't read too much into it.
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I have been checking Warren Nolan ELO, Sagarin and Football Outsiders (not updated well until Week 6, apparently) which all have us around 20-25. I don't know which is considered the most accurate.
 
PaddyWF said:
I have been checking Warren Nolan ELO, Sagarin and Football Outsiders (not updated well until Week 6, apparently) which all have us around 20-25. I don't know which is considered the most accurate.
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to my best knowledge:

ELO is just based on W-L record, so in theory isn't that predictive since it lacks a lot of data points. but also probably aligns best with public perception and rankin.

Sagarin is my personal favorite, which is a combo of win-loss, points differential and recency.

Football Outsiders I'm pretty sure the base is primarily based on points differential

SP+ is what I cited earlier that hates us. This one is pretty intense and tries to look even deeper than points at underlying factors. For example, stuff like fumble recoveries for touchdowns are heavily discounted, and the formula instead tries to estimate number of fumbles and their impact, interceptions (which I think are a function of PDs). Plus I think throws out garbage time, etc.
 
Pilchard said:
I have a little piece, which I wish was bigger...
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Brave of you to admit that publicly. And here I thought such board contests were a thing of the past.

J/k… good info
 
Anyone know if Fox will continue to be out?
 
I voted 8-0. But those last 4 games will be tough. 10-2 would be great, though I'm expecting more like 9-3. And is the o/u for the UNC game going to be in triple digits?
 
centerdeac said:
Let's try to go 6-0 next.
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Agree with this wholeheartedly, take them one at a time. But every game on our schedule is winnable and I certainly believe we will win the next 3 given what our offense is doing and how we won the game on Saturday.
 
BacktoBack said:
Got my tickets and my flight booked. Will be there with my unc alum brother.
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I assume he is picking you up at the airport. Will he be grabbing other fares, or is he keeping the meter running during the game?
 
TheReff said:
Agree with this wholeheartedly, take them one at a time. But every game on our schedule is winnable and I certainly believe we will win the next 3 given what our offense is doing and how we won the game on Saturday.
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So… take them one at a time? Or three at a time?

I’m taking them ten at a time.
 
If we fans start thinking ahead we’ll lose our focus and jeopardize the team
 
I’ve got $10 on the Deacs to win the Natty at 500:1, which dropped to 100:1 after this weekend on FanDuel.

Open bar on me at Joes Stone Crab New Years Day if we’re still in it.
 
If SP+ hates garbage time it should grade the FSU game very favorably. We dominated those dudes on a yardage basis until the game was firmly in hand.

I suspect our biggest problem in those rankings is we opened the season 74th, so maybe still digging out of that hole. On the flip side Miami opened the season 8th and is still 25th, which seems generous to say the least
 
Rolfe said:
I’ve got $10 on the Deacs to win the Natty at 500:1, which dropped to 100:1 after this weekend on FanDuel.

Open bar on me at Joes Stone Crab New Years Day if we’re still in it.
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must spread rep
 
wsc8521s said:
If SP+ hates garbage time it should grade the FSU game very favorably. We dominated those dudes on a yardage basis until the game was firmly in hand.

I suspect our biggest problem in those rankings is we opened the season 74th, so maybe still digging out of that hole. On the flip side Miami opened the season 8th and is still 25th, which seems generous to say the least
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2 big reasons SP+ still hates Wake:

1. Still some preseason/last season numbers in there that should be phased out more come the next few weeks
2. Success rate. The offense generally is behind the sticks, defense(last game was brutal with this but they've been good most of the year) allowing opposing offenses to be ahead of the sticks during drives. It says it is not sustainable that Wake continually coverts 3rd downs on offense/prevents them on defense as they continually aren't great on 1st and 2nd

Come say week 8 i'd assume a little more boost from preseason stuff being almost all the way phased out, but they need to have more total games like the UVA one if they wish to move up in that projection system
 
wsc8521s said:
If SP+ hates garbage time it should grade the FSU game very favorably. We dominated those dudes on a yardage basis until the game was firmly in hand.

I suspect our biggest problem in those rankings is we opened the season 74th, so maybe still digging out of that hole. On the flip side Miami opened the season 8th and is still 25th, which seems generous to say the least
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I really wish we played Miami this year.
 
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