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Atlantic Division race, updated 11/7

tigerswood said:
I'm pretty confident State and Clemson will both lose one more game that's not WF, and we'd go even with 2 losses (even if they're to those 2 teams). But we're going undefeated, so I don't want to even think that way.
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No. In that scenario, if we lose to State, then they would have 2 losses (they only have one now) and the tiebreaker over us. State would have to lose 2 more games if we lose to them and Clemson or BC. This is why I've been saying that the State game is for the divisional title for a while now.
 
State would have to go 2-2 excluding wake for any 2 wake wins to get us through.
 
Minor point, but if State beats us, we will need them to lose twice. This can happen, of course, but let’s just beat State.
 
Neurodeac said:
No. In that scenario, if we lose to State, then they would have 2 losses (they only have one now) and the tiebreaker over us. State would have to lose 2 more games if we lose to them and Clemson or BC. This is why I've been saying that the State game is for the divisional title for a while now.
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State going 3-1 against unc ul cuse and fsu wont be easy.
 
PhDeac said:
This isn't the official running the table thread, so such thoughts are fair game.
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What’s the tiebreaker if following happens: 1. Clemson wins out, including beating WF, 2. State loses to WF but wins out, 3. WF beats State but loses to Clemson and BC. In this scenario, 3 teams would be 6-2 in conference and no clear tiebreakers- then does it go to overall record? I’m assuming in this scenario that all other teams in division are 5-3 or worse. It’s huge that State and Clemson already have a non-conference loss so this is why the game in Kenan is very important even if it’s non-conference.
 
Yep, I misspoke. I think State will lose 2 of UNC, Louisville, Cuse, & FSU. Hell, they could lose all of them.
 
JKW385 said:
What’s the tiebreaker if following happens: 1. Clemson wins out, including beating WF, 2. State loses to WF but wins out, 3. WF beats State but loses to Clemson and BC. In this scenario, 3 teams would be 6-2 in conference and no clear tiebreakers- then does it go to overall record? I’m assuming in this scenario that all other teams in division are 5-3 or worse. It’s huge that State and Clemson already have a non-conference loss so this is why the game in Kenan is very important even if it’s non-conference.
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Division record which would eliminate the Deacs

Doesn’t matter because we are not losing to BC
 
JKW385 said:
What’s the tiebreaker if following happens: 1. Clemson wins out, including beating WF, 2. State loses to WF but wins out, 3. WF beats State but loses to Clemson and BC. In this scenario, 3 teams would be 6-2 in conference and no clear tiebreakers- then does it go to overall record? I’m assuming in this scenario that all other teams in division are 5-3 or worse. It’s huge that State and Clemson already have a non-conference loss so this is why the game in Kenan is very important even if it’s non-conference.
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Yes, then it goes to the tiebreaker algorithm that was posted earlier. That is why I said Clemson has to lose either FSU at home or Louisville on the road for us to be divisional champions immediately after we beat state, no matter what happens after that.
 
thatguy2016 said:
Division record which would eliminate the Deacs

Doesn’t matter because we are not losing to BC
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I don’t think we will either but we say we have same division record as State and Clemson and Clemson would have tiebreaker on us, State on Clemson, and us on State.
 
JKW385 said:
I don’t think we will either but we say we have same division record as State and Clemson and Clemson would have tiebreaker on us, State on Clemson, and us on State.
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No. We would have 2 losses within the division games. Clemson and State would have one. They both lost to teams in the other division
 
thatguy2016 said:
No. We would have 2 losses within the division games. Clemson and State would have one. They both lost to teams in the other division
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Got it so if we’re going to drop a conference game - better to drop to Duke.
 
JKW385 said:
Got it so if we’re going to drop a conference game - better to drop to Duke.
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or, just beat Duke and NC State, which might be enough with some help, or then go ahead and beat Clemson too, which will 100% be enough (and then beat BC as well)
 
tigerswood said:
Yep, I misspoke. I think State will lose 2 of UNC, Louisville, Cuse, & FSU. Hell, they could lose all of them.
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I think it starts with an L against Louisville this Saturday. UL is currently a 7 point dog, and I'm debating whether to take them straight up or stay safe with the points.
 
wakelaw13 said:
I think it starts with an L against Louisville this Saturday. UL is currently a 7 point dog, and I'm debating whether to take them straight up or stay safe with the points.
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It's State's homecoming so crowd will be good even as they flail to the end of the season but I don't think they stop Cunningham with all their defensive losses this year
 
I think it’s a two horse race and one of those horses is not NC State. I think they split between Louisville, UNC, Cuse, and FSU. Then there is Clemson who has FSU, UL, and Us.
 
We've been nice enough to never ruin Clemson's playoff runs, and we even helped them get Dabo. They owe us.
 
Whocares said:
I think it's pretty clear at this point that BC is not one of the stronger teams in conference. They started 4-0 in all non-con games, and have since gone 0-3 in conference. My only concern there is Jerkovic (sp?) coming back and giving them a boost.
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He wouldn’t have hardly played all year.
 
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