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Atlantic Division race, updated 11/7

OldGoldBeard

OldGoldBeard

A Sorry WR Like Crabtree
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Conference games in bold.

Wake Forest 9-1 (6-0): ODU- W, NSU- W, FSU- W, @UVA- W, Lville- W, @Syr- W, bye, @Army- W, Duke- W, @UNC- L, NCSU- W, @Clemson, @BC; +2 net (2 road wins, 0 home losses)
Clemson 7-3 (5-2): UGA- L, SCST- W, GT- W, NCSU- L, BC- W, @Syr- W, @Pitt- L, FSU- W, @Lville- W, UConn- W, WF, @SCar; +2 net (2 road wins, 0 home losses)
NC State 7-3 (4-2): USF- W, @MSST- L, Fur- W, Clem- W, LaTech- W, @BC- W, @UM- L, Lville- W, @FSU- W, @WF- L, Syr, UNC; +2 net (2 road wins, 0 home losses)
FSU 4-6 (3-4): ND- L, JVST- L, @WF- L, Lville- L, Syr- W, @UNC- W, bye, UMass- W, @Clem- L, NCSU- L, UM- W, @BC, @UF; -1 net (1 road win, 2 home losses)
Louisville 5-5 (3-4): Miss- L, EKU- W, UCF- W, @FSU- W, @WF- L, UVA- L, bye, BC- W, @NCSU- L, Clem- L, Syr- W, @Duke, UK; -1 net (1 road win, 2 home losses)
Syracuse 5-5 (2-4): @Ohio- W, Rutgers- L, Albany- W, Liberty- W, @FSU- L, WF- L, Clem- L, @VT- W, BC- W, bye, @Lville- L, @NCSU, Pitt; -1 net (1 road win, 2 home losses)
Boston College 6-4 (2-4): Colg- W, UMass- W, @Temple- W, Mizzou- W, @Clem- L, NCSU- L, @Lville- L, @Syr- L, VT- W, @GT- W, FSU, WF; 0 net (1 road win, 1 home loss)

Magic numbers*: With 1 more conference win, WF clinches the division.

Happy trails to BC, Syracuse, Louisville, and FSU. Better luck next year.


This week's games: WF @ Clemson 12:00


Nothing else matters. Go Deacs!
 
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I'm going to feel really gross if I end up needing to cheer for UNC against NC State in the last week of the season. Wake @ BC paired with UNC @ State could make for a really interesting ending to the season if things come down to that.
 
OGB: awesome work.

Currently, Clemson remains the favorite amongst the odds-makers to win the division. WF plays at Clemson, and while the Deacs have a great shot to win, Clemson will be favored. If the Deacs lose at Clemson and win the others, WF would need Clemson to lose a 2nd ACC game. Clemson @ Pitt and Clemson @ L'ville seem like the best chance for that to happen. Would be great to have Cuse knock off the Tigers on Friday, but Clemson is coming off a bye and Cuse is banged up coming off a short week (FWIW, teams playing on a short week, should never have to play a team on a bye; very unfair).

FWIW, the L'ville choked against UVA. L'ville led 30-13 at home against UVA. UVA took at 34-33 lead with 26 seconds left after UVA scored 3 4th quarter TDs. Cunningham drove the Cards to the UVA 31, but the L'ville kicker missed a 48 yarder on the last play of the game.

Also, credit to Norvel and FSU for saving their season with a nice double digit win at UNC. FSU now has 3 weeks to prepare for Clemson, as the Nole have a bye this week, they play horrendous UMASS the week after, before playing Clemson.

If WF loses to Clemson, but wins the other games, and Clemson wins out, and State wins out other than losing to WF, what is the tiebreaker is WF, Clemson and State all finish 7-1 in the division while going 1-1 against the others? Is it the football playoff committee rankings?
 
Pilchard said:
OGB: awesome work.

Currently, Clemson remains the favorite amongst the odds-makers to win the division. WF plays at Clemson, and while the Deacs have a great shot to win, Clemson will be favored. If the Deacs lose at Clemson and win the others, WF would need Clemson to lose a 2nd ACC game. Clemson @ Pitt and Clemson @ L'ville seem like the best chance for that to happen. Would be great to have Cuse knock off the Tigers on Friday, but Clemson is coming off a bye and Cuse is banged up coming off a short week (FWIW, teams playing on a short week, should never have to play a team on a bye; very unfair).

FWIW, the L'ville choked against UVA. L'ville led 30-13 at home against UVA. UVA took at 34-33 lead with 26 seconds left after UVA scored 3 4th quarter TDs. Cunningham drove the Cards to the UVA 31, but the L'ville kicker missed a 48 yarder on the last play of the game.

Also, credit to Norvel and FSU for saving their season with a nice double digit win at UNC. FSU now has 3 weeks to prepare for Clemson, as the Nole have a bye this week, they play horrendous UMASS the week after, before playing Clemson.

If WF loses to Clemson, but wins the other games, and Clemson wins out, and State wins out other than losing to WF, what is the tiebreaker is WF, Clemson and State all finish 7-1 in the division while going 1-1 against the others? Is it the football playoff committee rankings?
Click to expand...

I don't see a more recent explanation than this one

Three-Team (or More) Team Tie:
(Once a team is eliminated from the tie, the tie-breaker procedures restart for the remaining teams. If the three (or more) team tie can be reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker format
will then be applied.)

1. Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams.
2. Win percentage of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference win percentage, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last, using the league’s tie-breaker policies.
4. Combined win percentage versus all common non-divisional opponents.
5. Overall win percentage versus non-divisional opponents.
6. Win percentage versus common non-divisional opponents based upon their order of finish (overall win percentage) and proceeding through other common non-divisional opponents based upon their divisional order of finish.
7. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.
8. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or the Commissioner’s designee.
Click to expand...
 
I think we have a better chance of beating State at home than BC on the road. So I’ll be rooting for State I guess. Gross.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
clemson should be underdogs @pitt which will hopefully work in our favor.

what's nice even the systems that don't think we are particularly good give us a really great shot of winning the division: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-college-football-predictions/
Click to expand...

and along those lines, 538 says a BC win increases WF's chances (from 23% to 25%) of winning the ACC, while an NC State win would decrease WF's chances (to 22%)

538 says WF is #2 ACC team in ELO rankings, very close behind Clemson, but a distant 4th in FPI
 
Whocares said:
In this scenario, wouldn't the tie break at step 5 (assuming Wake wins out in this scenario)? NCST and Clemson have OOC losses and Wake does not (so far).
Click to expand...

I take non-divisional to mean ACC teams in the other division; however it is wise to take nothing for granted when attempting to decipher official ACC communications

The references to common non-divisional opponents for a 3-team tie don't make any sense on the surface since at present nobody plays more than 2 conference games against non-divisional opponents...
 
Yeah, we might get shafted because we play Duke, which is an obvious last place team.

Also, I assume our UNC-CH game wouldn't count in the tiebreakers, win or lose, since it's a non-conference game.
 
This week at least we get one of NCSU / BC with a L

Next week is a big week - Go Pitt / UM / Louisville
 
I think BC's remaining schedule is much harder than NC State's and BC already has a loss and State doesn't. We need BC to beat State.
 
I am really figuring on going 8-0 thru end of October and going 2-2 in the month of November. Three road games out of four will be tough no matter what. Conference title still runs thru the champ [Clemson] until they are beaten so somebody needs to take them down with a 2nd loss. I hope it is in our wheelhouse to do just that but history tells me no with game at Death Valley. I am thinking Pitt may do it next week.
 
Syracuse may do it this week, they've done it before in the dome...
 
Neurodeac said:
Syracuse may do it this week, they've done it before in the dome...
Click to expand...

A loud dome isn't an easy place to play especially for a QB and offense that has already looked shellshocked at times this season. I'd still expect Clemson's defense to carry them through. Pitt would probably have a better chance but you never know.
 
BTW, as OGB noted, the Clemson at Syracuse game is on Friday night at 7:00 on ESPN.

Also, the game is on ACCN. Lastly, Clemson is coming off a bye week, having last played on 10/2 against BC, while Syracuse is coming off an overtime loss.

Line is Clemson -14, O/U 44.5.
 
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