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2021-22 Men's College Basketball Season - UNC v. Kansas for the Natty

For the same reason that most of the ACC is on the bubble is why dook will not be a #1. Cuse is a Quad 2 win. UNC at home is Quad 2. If they win the ACCT, they might only get 2 Quad 1 wins.

There are 6 teams ahead of them in NET with as many Quad 1 wins as dook can accumulate this year.
 
Deac83 said:
For the same reason that most of the ACC is on the bubble is why dook will not be a #1. Cuse is a Quad 2 win. UNC at home is Quad 2. If they win the ACCT, they might only get 2 Quad 1 wins.

There are 6 teams ahead of them in NET with as many Quad 1 wins as dook can accumulate this year.
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IF duke wins out, they are likely one a seed. Palm currently has them as the top two seed, with only four ACC teams in and us in a play-in game.
 
We've been talking about whether 8/9 or 7/10 is better. Lunardi has us as a 10 now, and 1 of the 7s is Mich St. I don't want to face Mich St in the 1st round. I'm at the point where I'm more concerned about the 1st opponent so that we can get 1 win. We're likely screwed in round 2 anyway.

For a lot of the last 29 years, Gonzaga has had a free ride in it's conference. But St, Mary's is really good this year, and San Fran has been sneaky good the last 2-3 years, probably its best run since Russell.
 
Even with their win yesterday, Michigan State has had lots of issues this year. Also, Izzo was the King of March surges, but not recently. Last year, they lost in the play-in round. In 2018, they were a 3 seed and lost to #11 seed Cuse, and in 2016, Michigan State was a #2 seed and they lost to #15 Middle Tennessee State. Most importantly, Michigan State doesn't play pressure D, and they don't force TOs. That is huge for WF. If WF is a #10 seed, the Deacs are going to play someone who is good, but as matchups go, Michigan State is not a bad one. FWIW, the line on a WF v. Michigan State nuetral court game would be a pick right now.
 
cville deac said:
We've been talking about whether 8/9 or 7/10 is better. Lunardi has us as a 10 now, and 1 of the 7s is Mich St. I don't want to face Mich St in the 1st round. I'm at the point where I'm more concerned about the 1st opponent so that we can get 1 win. We're likely screwed in round 2 anyway.

For a lot of the last 29 years, Gonzaga has had a free ride in it's conference. But St, Mary's is really good this year, and San Fran has been sneaky good the last 2-3 years, probably its best run since Russell.
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Any team that plays good zone will give Wake problems, at least that has been the story so far this season. I was surprised Louisville went away from it. Wake's offense has been good at creating mismatches against man defense. Not so good at beating zones.

If the Mich St. projection was before they beat Purdue Saturday, they might be moving up a line.

With favorable matchups, this Wake team could win two games in the NCAA Tournament. A bad first matchup and one win will be a struggle.
 
Everyone tosses a zone at us and I don't think they've all been good but we struggle either way.

NET is such an odd metric. After yesterday.
-UNC up one to 40 (beat State away)
-VT down one to 41 (quad 1 win @ Miami)
-Wake up one to 42 (beat 'ville at home)
-ND oddly moves up 9 from 56 to 47 (beating GT at home) - this is a head scratcher.
 
Yeah Michigan State is not very good, they've been getting handled easily by Big Ten competition on the regular before yesterday. Izzo's teams either go deep or flame out quickly in the tourney, this team has all the makings of the latter.

I'm not scared of any of Lunardi's current 7s -- Boise, Michst, Marquette or Iowa State. Every one of those games would be essentially a pick'em in Vegas
 
Mich loses at home to Ill. Keeps the holes from backing into a quad 1 win.
 
Deac83 said:
Mich loses at home to Ill. Keeps the holes from backing into a quad 1 win.
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UNC hasn't really beaten anyone worth a damn all season, but with 21 wins I think they'll likely make the NCAA tourney simply based on name reputation and for TV ratings. It's unfair, but I'd be surprised at this point if they're left out, even if they lose their next three (Syracuse, Duke in Durham, and their first round ACC tourney game).
 
Highland Deac said:
UNC hasn't really beaten anyone worth a damn all season, but with 21 wins I think they'll likely make the NCAA tourney simply based on name reputation and for TV ratings. It's unfair, but I'd be surprised at this point if they're left out, even if they lose their next three (Syracuse, Duke in Durham, and their first round ACC tourney game).
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I am going to have to disagree with you here. UNC is 1-7 in Quad 1 games and now has a Quad 4 loss. They have not beaten a single team in the projected field, but they do have a few wins against bubble teams. If they lose the next 3, I think they're pretty solidly out.
 
FWIW, with conference tourneys starting, here are the teams from typically one bid leagues that would grab an at-large bid if they don't win their conference tournament:

Ohio Valley Conference: Murray State 28-2 (#26 in KP). They are a lock to get in.
Missouri Valley Conference: Loyola-Chicago 22-7 (#29 in KP). Not a lock, but would probably get a bid if they don't win the MVC.
Atlantic 10: Davidson 24-4 (#45 in KP). Not a lock, but they do have a neutral court win over Bama.
Atlantic 10: Dayton 20-9 (#49 in KP). Horrendous to start the year; among the youngest team's in the country; no program was more screwed when the 2020 tourney was cancelled (likely #1 seed); has neutral court wins over Kansas, Miami, and also beat VT.

Also, the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga's conference) is going to grab its most bids in conference history. Zags, St. Mary and SF are in. BYU is on the bubble.
Similarly, the Mountain West typically will grab more bids than usual. San Diego State, Colorado State and Boise are in. Wyoming is likely in. Not impossible for Fresno or UNLV (they host) to win the conference tournament.
 
We have to beat State and go 2-1 in the ACCT to feel good about things going into Selection Sunday
 
CreamyGoodness said:
We have to beat State and go 2-1 in the ACCT to feel good about things going into Selection Sunday
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agree with this, with the caveat that if we get a double bye then one win (over #5 UNC or Miami) should be enough as long as dook doesn't blow us out of Brooklyn

feels like losing the 4/5 game to UNC (giving them legitimacy over us) or Miami (giving them a 3-game sweep) would be a kill shot or at minimum give us reason to be very nervous
 
I don't think we need that much just to get in. I'm only worried if we lose to State and flame out early.

Pilch, some of those small conference schools are really fun watches. I always love me some McKillop, Loyola and Murray St have been good follows the last few years, and St. Mary's is darn good this year.

And I've suddenly become a big Iowa fan in the last couple months.
 
Pilchard said:
FWIW, with conference tourneys starting, here are the teams from typically one bid leagues that would grab an at-large bid if they don't win their conference tournament:

Ohio Valley Conference: Murray State 28-2 (#26 in KP). They are a lock to get in.
Missouri Valley Conference: Loyola-Chicago 22-7 (#29 in KP). Not a lock, but would probably get a bid if they don't win the MVC.
Atlantic 10: Davidson 24-4 (#45 in KP). Not a lock, but they do have a neutral court win over Bama.
Atlantic 10: Dayton 20-9 (#49 in KP). Horrendous to start the year; among the youngest team's in the country; no program was more screwed when the 2020 tourney was cancelled (likely #1 seed); has neutral court wins over Kansas, Miami, and also beat VT.

Also, the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga's conference) is going to grab its most bids in conference history. Zags, St. Mary and SF are in. BYU is on the bubble.
Similarly, the Mountain West typically will grab more bids than usual. San Diego State, Colorado State and Boise are in. Wyoming is likely in. Not impossible for Fresno or UNLV (they host) to win the conference tournament.
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Good stuff. I’ll add North Texas in Conference USA (38 Net, 41 KP) as another team to cheer for once their tournament starts.

In the A-10, VCU is pretty close to the cut line at this point and St Louis and St Bonaventure are long shots but still in the picture (probably about where UVA is, so not a great shot).

American - Houston winning would be great. SMU or Memphis winning would be ok — they’re both right on the bubble with Wake and would get a bid at that point. Anyone else winning steals a bid for sure.

Chattanooga, Iona, and Vermont are all likely <5% chances to get an at-large bid, but I’d rather they just win their conferences and not give the committee any reason to do something dumb.
 
It's hard to get my head around a potential 13 conference win ACC team not getting in, down year or not. Assuming some combo of us and UNC at the 4/5 it will absolutely suck if the media labels that game as a "whoever wins gets the bid" scenario when we already destroyed UNC once.
 
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