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2021-22 Men's College Basketball Season - UNC v. Kansas for the Natty

daaberry said:
I feel today they would be one of the last 9s or first 10s on S curve. One loss next week is not going to punt them out of the field from where they are today IMO.
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ESPN agrees:

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Bubble Watch can report confidently that the Wake Forest offense is outstanding at home against opponents that won't earn an at-large bid. In blowout wins over Louisville and NC State, the Demon Deacons scored 200 points in 80 minutes of basketball. That nets out to 1.39 points per possession, and it was Daivien Williamson who set the pace against the Wolfpack with 28 points. The Deacons appear to have wrapped up at least a No. 10 seed in what will be the program's first NCAA tournament appearance in five years. (updated Mar. 3)


Barring a blowout loss in the first round of the ACCT, I think we're in too, although bad luck with bid-thieves could knock us down to the First Four. One win in the ACCT makes us a mortal lock.
 
Of course Palm has us out, but continues to list Xavier who has lost 7 of last 8 games and 9 of last 12
 
BeachBumDeac said:
Does Notre dame losing to FSU take them off the bubble?
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ND isn't on the bubble. Lunardi had them as an 8 seed. As long as they beat Pitt, they're in.

And watch out for FSU in the tourney. They've had a lot of injuries, which explains why their record is what it is, but some of their young guys are starting to step it up. I could see them making an ACC tourney run.
 
Here are updated ACC NCAAT bid % based on bracketmatrix.com as of 10:30am this morning. It looks like most are updated as of 3/2, assuming that includes last night's games. But maybe not. Some are still from 3/1 or 2/28.

Duke - 100%
Notre Dame - 97.7%
North Carolina - 92.3%
Wake Forest - 91.5%
Miami - 88.5%
Virginia Tech - 3.8%
 
I know that the NET is absolute bullshit because it has VT above Wake. Q1 we are 1-4 and VT is 1-5. Q2 we are both 4-4. Q3 we are 9-0 and they are 8-2. And we beat them by 19 on the road. So yeah, of course they should be 3 spots above us.
 
PaddyWF said:
Here are updated ACC NCAAT bid % based on bracketmatrix.com as of 10:30am this morning. It looks like most are updated as of 3/2, assuming that includes last night's games. But maybe not. Some are still from 3/1 or 2/28.

Duke - 100%
Notre Dame - 97.7%
North Carolina - 92.3%
Wake Forest - 91.5%
Miami - 88.5%
Virginia Tech - 3.8%
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in WF's case, that is not all that different from the odds of us beating UL/BC/Pitt at a neutral site (they are giving us a very slim chance of getting in if we lose)
 
wakelaw13 said:
I know that the NET is absolute bullshit because it has VT above Wake. Q1 we are 1-4 and VT is 1-5. Q2 we are both 4-4. Q3 we are 9-0 and they are 8-2. And we beat them by 19 on the road. So yeah, of course they should be 3 spots above us.
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they beat St. Bonaventure at a neutral site by 37. That is the beginning, middle, and end of the explanation as to why they are ranked so highly in KP and Net.

ETA: oh, and also our bench performed poorly (and quickly, resulting in more possessions) in the closing minutes vs. Louisville, which cost us a surprisingly high amount.
 
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PaddyWF said:
Here are updated ACC NCAAT bid % based on bracketmatrix.com as of 10:30am this morning. It looks like most are updated as of 3/2, assuming that includes last night's games. But maybe not. Some are still from 3/1 or 2/28.

Duke - 100%
Notre Dame - 97.7%
North Carolina - 92.3%
Wake Forest - 91.5%
Miami - 88.5%
Virginia Tech - 3.8%
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Hard to have a current read during the week since a lot of brackets they use are not updated for the current weeks games and I think 3/2 updates were before last night mostly.
 
Second-round ACCT is going to be a Q3 game for Wake no matter what.

Guess it's better if we face UNC in the quarters because that would likely be a Q1 opportunity instead of Miami, which would be Q2. We also handled UNC vs. struggling in 2 games against Miami. Also losing 3x to a weaker bubble team can't be a good look.

If we get to Duke, that is going to be the biggest F U game on a neutral site we could possibly have. The northeast Duke crowd, refs, media and K slurping will be puke worthy. If they players win that, they deserve a 7-seed+ with 2 Q1 wins in 2 days.

The ACC Final could be a Q2 game, which is kind of funny.
 
wakelaw13 said:
I know that the NET is absolute bullshit because it has VT above Wake. Q1 we are 1-4 and VT is 1-5. Q2 we are both 4-4. Q3 we are 9-0 and they are 8-2. And we beat them by 19 on the road. So yeah, of course they should be 3 spots above us.
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This. It relies way too much on SOS. You play in a power 5 conference you've played a solid enough schedule. From there you have to start looking at head to head, etc. The fact they've played 2 more games against Q1-3 schools is not relevant.
 
PaddyWF said:
Second-round ACCT is going to be a Q3 game for Wake no matter what.

Guess it's better if we face UNC in the quarters because that would likely be a Q1 opportunity instead of Miami, which would be Q2. We also handled UNC vs. struggling in 2 games against Miami. Also losing 3x to a weaker bubble team can't be a good look.

If we get to Duke, that is going to be the biggest F U game on a neutral site we could possibly have. The northeast Duke crowd, refs, media and K slurping will be puke worthy. If they players win that, they deserve a 7-seed+ with 2 Q1 wins in 2 days.

The ACC Final could be a Q2 game, which is kind of funny.
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If we win that Wednesday game I would much rather play Miami than UNC again. We owe those fucks.
 
DeacMan said:
If we win that Wednesday game I would much rather play Miami than UNC again. We owe those fucks.
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Could well happen, and I tend to agree. We owe Miami, and UNC owes us. I don't give UNC any chance of beating Duke, but Miami could certainly lose @ Syracuse - barely beat them in Miami. And losing to Syracuse and us would put them squarely on the bubble.
 
Not beyond the realm of possibility that the Miami/Cuse game is Boehiem's last game in the Dome as a HC. Most coaches don't seek to bask themselves in praise like K has by announcing his retirement before the season.
 
Pilchard said:
Not beyond the realm of possibility that the Miami/Cuse game is Boehiem's last game in the Dome as a HC. Most coaches don't seek to bask themselves in praise like K has by announcing his retirement before the season.
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this makes me concerned to about Cuse just feeding Buddy Boeheim the ball.
 
Pilchard said:
Not beyond the realm of possibility that the Miami/Cuse game is Boehiem's last game in the Dome as a HC. Most coaches don't seek to bask themselves in praise like K has by announcing his retirement before the season.
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I don't think he retires the same year as K.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
this makes me concerned to about Cuse just feeding Buddy Boeheim the ball.
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good chance that is what will happen anyway - Cuse is not going to the NCAAT, they are locked into the 8/9 ACCT game, and they have a senior with a shot at the league scoring title

BTW Buddy has scored 30 points in a regular-season game one time in his career - vs. WF at home a few weeks ago
 
Pilchard said:
Not beyond the realm of possibility that the Miami/Cuse game is Boehiem's last game in the Dome as a HC. Most coaches don't seek to bask themselves in praise like K has by announcing his retirement before the season.
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He has a good class coming in next year. They said they have a succession plan in place. I think he gives it 1 more year so as not to lose some of that class.
 
IMissRandolph said:
Of course Palm has us out, but continues to list Xavier who has lost 7 of last 8 games and 9 of last 12
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it seems palm has always had a bias against acc. i subscribed to collegerpi.com decades ago. he would always have something to say on the message boards there about the conference.
not sure how he is working at CBS. i believe he was just one of the first doing "bracketology." look at the rankings on bracketmatrix.com. palm ranks 100th in accuracy over the last five years (lunardi at 54). 100th (out of 135 sites tracked) and is the CBS "expert"
 
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