Pilchard
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Before the Beaver eval, a quick update on WF's progress this season. When this season started WF was rated #105 in KP ratings (WF finished last season at #175). WF has climbed 14 spots to #91. KP now projects WF to finish the regular season at 16-14 (WF plays 31 regular season games, but he doesn't project the game this Saturday, because the opponent is not known yet) and 8-12 in the ACC (tied with Miami for 12th). Another CBB rating site barttorvik.com , rates WF #69 and to finish 18-12 (9-11). IOW, put a bullet by the Deacs as they ascend the rankings.
OK, now lets explore the Beavers:
Coach: 52 year-old Wayne Tinkle leads the Beavs. He and his family are basketball lifers (see picture below). Tinkle was a star player at U of Montana (6th all-time in points; 4th in boards). Tinkle's wife was also a star basketball player at Montana (University of Montana athletic hall of famer). Tinkle has 3 kids. His daughter Joslyn played in three NCAA final 4s for Stanford. His other daughter Elle was a four year player at Gonzaga and led the Zags to a Sweet 16. Tinkle's son Tres was a 4 year player at Oregon State and is the Beavers all-time leading scorer. Prior to taking the Oregon State job, Tinkle coached his alma mater, Montana for 8 years, winning 3 Big Sky Conference titles and taking the Grizzlies to 3 NCAA tournaments. Tinkle's greatest achievement was taking the Beavers on an epic run to the Elite 8 last season. On February 14, 2021, the Beavers sat at 10-10 (6-8) #123, and it was certain that a mediocre Beaver Basketball season would end at the Pac 12 tournament. The light suddenly and unexpectedly turned on for the Beavers as they won their last 3 road Pac 12 road games heading into the Pac 12 tournament, but the fun was just starting. Oregon State needed to win the Pac 12 tourney to get an NCAA bid and that's what they did. They opened the Pac 12 tournament against UCLA (who ended up going to the Final 4) and took down the Bruins in OT. The Beavers then beat #16 Oregon in the semifinals and #8 Colorado (including Dallas Walton) in the conference finals to steal an NCAA bid. The Beavs crazy run continued as they took down Tennessee by 14, Oklahoma State and Cade Cunningham by 10 and Loyola-Chicago by 7 to advance to the NCAA South Regional final. The Beaves season finally ended in a tight contest to Houston (67-61) for a Final Four bid. From February 14 until March 29, Oregon State beat 9 teams rated #57 or above and four teams rated in the top 16. The Beavers finished the season rated #43.
The 2021-22 Beavers. OSU lost 4 players, including leading scorer Ethan Thompson, from last year's squad, and they have stumbled to start this season as injuries and suspensions have further hampered Oregon State. After an opening win over #255 Portland State, Oregon State has lost 4 straight as a favorite: by 10 to #111 Iowa State, by 6 to #143 Tulsa, by 1 to #234 Samford and by 1 to #138 Princeton. Offensively, OSU misses Thompson and fellow starter Zach Reichle as their offense has regressed from #36 to #83. OSU has struggled to hit shots (31.9% from 3 -- #204 and 60.5% from the line #333). The Beavers have had little success in rebounding their misses (#223 in offensive rebounding rate). Defense has been worse than the offense as the Beavers have sagged to #125 on defense. OSU is below average in almost every defensive metric (3 point % defense, 2 point % defense, opponents' offensive rebounding percentage). In addition, OSU has been unlucky -- losing two games by a point, and their opponents have shot unusually well from the FT line (77% #321 against them). In addition, OSU starters have missed games for the Beavers as 6-10 C Maurice Calloo missed their most recent game with a knee injury as did Calloo's back up 7-1 Roman Silva, starter Dashawn Davis missed the Tulsa game and Maryland transfer Chol Marial was declared academically ineligible to start the season.
OSU Starters:
Last time out, the Beavers started:
PG 6-2 Jr. Dashawn Davis: Led the Beavers in scoring in his first start against Princeton 16 points; JUCO all-american; tie for the team lead in assists 19/5 A/TO ratio; 1 for 6 from three on the year
SG 6-4 Jr. Jarod Lucas: two year starter, has been great from deep (38% for his career; 41% this year) 11 ppg; 90% from the line
SF 6-5 Jr. Dexter Akanno: Marquette transfer; not a scorer (3 ppg) 2 for 10 from three; last game was his first and only start
PF 6-8 Sr. Warith Alatishe: leading scorer 13 ppg and rebounder 7 ppg; Nichols State transfer; honorable mention all Pac-12, started to hit the three
C 6-8 Sr. Rodrigue Andela: only started because Calloo and Silva were out; not a scoring threat 3.2 ppg;
Bench:
C 6-10 Sr. Maurice Calloo: Missed last game with a knee injury; 2nd leading scorer and rebounder; played very well in the NCAA tournament last year (15 points against OK State; 13 against Houston); scored 20 against Tulsa, big loss if he is absent
PG 6-4 Jr. Gianni Hunt: started first 4 games; struggled to score (14% from 3; 33% from 2); tied for the team lead in assists; better player than he has showed so far; shot 37% from 3 in 2020-21
F 6-8 Jr. Ahmad Rand: Memphis transfer; averaged 11 ppg in the last two; no threat from deep; known for his defense
G/F 6-5 Jr. Tre Williams: Minnesota transfer -- 13 starts for the Gophers; 11 points last time out; can score points in bunches; 29% lifetime 3 point %
G/F 6-6 Fr. Glenn Taylor: only frosh on the OSU roster to play; 9 points against Princeton; reputation as 3 point shooter
The Bottom Line: KP projects 71-70 WF win. Early season results have changed the outlook for both teams. Heading into the season, Oregon State was a projected 4 point winner over the Deacs. Tinkle is still experimenting with his team as 8 players have started at least one of the first 5 games. Currently, the Beavers struggle to shoot, rebound and play defense (hard to win that way), but there are some solid pieces on this roster and Tinkle is a savvy coach. Also, Oregon State's shooting regression has to head in the other direction at some point. When this team is healthy and gets used to playing together, they could do some damage. FWIW, Oregon State hasn't played since last Sunday; so, they will have 4 days to prepare for WF, and would expect Oregon State's best effort of the season. A key will be Calloo's status. If he is out, the Deacs should have their way with the Beavers inside. If Calloo plays and OSU gets shots to finally fall, the game could be tight. That said, WF is healthy and has a better roster. Plus, the game will be played at Forbes' home turf. Clear that this tournament means a lot to him. If WF is favored by 2.5 or less, really like the WF side in this game. If Calloo is out, LOVE the WF side in this game.
OK, now lets explore the Beavers:
Coach: 52 year-old Wayne Tinkle leads the Beavs. He and his family are basketball lifers (see picture below). Tinkle was a star player at U of Montana (6th all-time in points; 4th in boards). Tinkle's wife was also a star basketball player at Montana (University of Montana athletic hall of famer). Tinkle has 3 kids. His daughter Joslyn played in three NCAA final 4s for Stanford. His other daughter Elle was a four year player at Gonzaga and led the Zags to a Sweet 16. Tinkle's son Tres was a 4 year player at Oregon State and is the Beavers all-time leading scorer. Prior to taking the Oregon State job, Tinkle coached his alma mater, Montana for 8 years, winning 3 Big Sky Conference titles and taking the Grizzlies to 3 NCAA tournaments. Tinkle's greatest achievement was taking the Beavers on an epic run to the Elite 8 last season. On February 14, 2021, the Beavers sat at 10-10 (6-8) #123, and it was certain that a mediocre Beaver Basketball season would end at the Pac 12 tournament. The light suddenly and unexpectedly turned on for the Beavers as they won their last 3 road Pac 12 road games heading into the Pac 12 tournament, but the fun was just starting. Oregon State needed to win the Pac 12 tourney to get an NCAA bid and that's what they did. They opened the Pac 12 tournament against UCLA (who ended up going to the Final 4) and took down the Bruins in OT. The Beavers then beat #16 Oregon in the semifinals and #8 Colorado (including Dallas Walton) in the conference finals to steal an NCAA bid. The Beavs crazy run continued as they took down Tennessee by 14, Oklahoma State and Cade Cunningham by 10 and Loyola-Chicago by 7 to advance to the NCAA South Regional final. The Beaves season finally ended in a tight contest to Houston (67-61) for a Final Four bid. From February 14 until March 29, Oregon State beat 9 teams rated #57 or above and four teams rated in the top 16. The Beavers finished the season rated #43.
The 2021-22 Beavers. OSU lost 4 players, including leading scorer Ethan Thompson, from last year's squad, and they have stumbled to start this season as injuries and suspensions have further hampered Oregon State. After an opening win over #255 Portland State, Oregon State has lost 4 straight as a favorite: by 10 to #111 Iowa State, by 6 to #143 Tulsa, by 1 to #234 Samford and by 1 to #138 Princeton. Offensively, OSU misses Thompson and fellow starter Zach Reichle as their offense has regressed from #36 to #83. OSU has struggled to hit shots (31.9% from 3 -- #204 and 60.5% from the line #333). The Beavers have had little success in rebounding their misses (#223 in offensive rebounding rate). Defense has been worse than the offense as the Beavers have sagged to #125 on defense. OSU is below average in almost every defensive metric (3 point % defense, 2 point % defense, opponents' offensive rebounding percentage). In addition, OSU has been unlucky -- losing two games by a point, and their opponents have shot unusually well from the FT line (77% #321 against them). In addition, OSU starters have missed games for the Beavers as 6-10 C Maurice Calloo missed their most recent game with a knee injury as did Calloo's back up 7-1 Roman Silva, starter Dashawn Davis missed the Tulsa game and Maryland transfer Chol Marial was declared academically ineligible to start the season.
OSU Starters:
Last time out, the Beavers started:
PG 6-2 Jr. Dashawn Davis: Led the Beavers in scoring in his first start against Princeton 16 points; JUCO all-american; tie for the team lead in assists 19/5 A/TO ratio; 1 for 6 from three on the year
SG 6-4 Jr. Jarod Lucas: two year starter, has been great from deep (38% for his career; 41% this year) 11 ppg; 90% from the line
SF 6-5 Jr. Dexter Akanno: Marquette transfer; not a scorer (3 ppg) 2 for 10 from three; last game was his first and only start
PF 6-8 Sr. Warith Alatishe: leading scorer 13 ppg and rebounder 7 ppg; Nichols State transfer; honorable mention all Pac-12, started to hit the three
C 6-8 Sr. Rodrigue Andela: only started because Calloo and Silva were out; not a scoring threat 3.2 ppg;
Bench:
C 6-10 Sr. Maurice Calloo: Missed last game with a knee injury; 2nd leading scorer and rebounder; played very well in the NCAA tournament last year (15 points against OK State; 13 against Houston); scored 20 against Tulsa, big loss if he is absent
PG 6-4 Jr. Gianni Hunt: started first 4 games; struggled to score (14% from 3; 33% from 2); tied for the team lead in assists; better player than he has showed so far; shot 37% from 3 in 2020-21
F 6-8 Jr. Ahmad Rand: Memphis transfer; averaged 11 ppg in the last two; no threat from deep; known for his defense
G/F 6-5 Jr. Tre Williams: Minnesota transfer -- 13 starts for the Gophers; 11 points last time out; can score points in bunches; 29% lifetime 3 point %
G/F 6-6 Fr. Glenn Taylor: only frosh on the OSU roster to play; 9 points against Princeton; reputation as 3 point shooter
The Bottom Line: KP projects 71-70 WF win. Early season results have changed the outlook for both teams. Heading into the season, Oregon State was a projected 4 point winner over the Deacs. Tinkle is still experimenting with his team as 8 players have started at least one of the first 5 games. Currently, the Beavers struggle to shoot, rebound and play defense (hard to win that way), but there are some solid pieces on this roster and Tinkle is a savvy coach. Also, Oregon State's shooting regression has to head in the other direction at some point. When this team is healthy and gets used to playing together, they could do some damage. FWIW, Oregon State hasn't played since last Sunday; so, they will have 4 days to prepare for WF, and would expect Oregon State's best effort of the season. A key will be Calloo's status. If he is out, the Deacs should have their way with the Beavers inside. If Calloo plays and OSU gets shots to finally fall, the game could be tight. That said, WF is healthy and has a better roster. Plus, the game will be played at Forbes' home turf. Clear that this tournament means a lot to him. If WF is favored by 2.5 or less, really like the WF side in this game. If Calloo is out, LOVE the WF side in this game.
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