Yeah the TR argument mirrors similar arguments with other conservatives I've had. They're all a variation on a theme. The reality is these are complex systems, humans are different, and pretty much everything related to vaccines and the Rona is an odds game. Incredibly well-researched, critical info is always phrased in "likely to, very likely, extremely rare" etc. And the bottom line is that if something is contradictory to the narrative someone wants to believe, it simply has to be absolute. Nothing else matters short of direct, personal experience with a devastating loss.
Group of dudes at a country club near me had one guy tell a "first hand" story of an employee at his office who was forced to get the jab and it killed him. No matter how many billions of people get the vaccine without issue, that story, bullshit though it likely is, gets told EVERY TIME someone mentions the vaccine. And that's just that one little group. I can't imagine how far it's radiated from there.
Shortening quarantine times is another great example. "The CDC is out of control and will use the next strain to continue pushing more and more extreme actions on the public." CDC follows the odds/science and reduces the quarantine times accordingly. "See, they changed their recommendations, they have no idea what they're doing."
There's no winning these arguments, because both things are technically true. There ARE exceptions. When pro-science folks talk in absolutes it just charges up the opposing side to look even harder for those exceptions - and there's no shortage of Facebook trash content to feed them. It doesn't matter that the science is right, that vaccines work, that history proves it, that the odds are absurdly pro-vaccine.
But hey, people will drive cross country because they're scared of flying and "feel like" driving is safer. Forget reason, that's not a path toward change for them. It's coercion. Mandates, game attendance test/vaccine requirements, employer requirements, restaurant/bar checks - those work. And when they don't, the outlier people do what Tr's doing. They stay home, are forced to withdraw, remove themselves from the equation. Win-win really.